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Staten Island Scenarios
May 12th, 2008

So the weekend — Mother’s Day weekend no less — has come and gone with no word from “I led two lives” Rep. Vito Fossella on his political future or lack thereof. As Fossella cogitates, pundits prognosticate. What are the various scenarios? And who wins and who loses?

Fossella could resign effective immediately, keep his seat now but decide not to run for re-election in November, or stay and run.

If he resigns before July 1, the Politicker explains, a special election will be held to fill the remainder of the term and in the proud tradition of special elections in New York, party bosses will get to pick the candidate. With Staten Island making up two thirds of the13th district (the remainder falls in Brooklyn), the Richmond County parties will be the real power brokers, Jerry Skurnik told the blog. That could pose problems for the two current candidates, City Councilmember Dominic Recchia and Steven Harrison, both of Brooklyn.

Whoever wins the special election will have to run again for a full term in November.

Whether it’s for a special election, the September primary or November general — and whether Fossella stays or goes — names are being bandied about for his post. Even before Fossella lost his ability to recite the alphabet, Democrats were already dreaming of ousting the city’s one Republican representative. After all, the little known, poorly financed Harrison managed to rack up 43 percent of the vote against Fossella in 2006. Now Democrats State Sen. Diane Savino, City Councilmember Michael McMahon and Assemblymember Michael Cusick are eying the seat as well.

Recchia and Harrison’s “biggest problem is they don’t live on Staten Island. Eighty percent of this district is in Staten Island,” Savino told the Daily Politics. “One thing about Staten Islanders, they will vote for anybody on any line if they’re from Staten Island versus someone who’s not.”

Savino concedes, though, she might not want to give up a safe seat in the legislature for a risky congressional run.

“Few political observers believe that Fossella can win re-election now that the sordid details of his secret double life have come to light,” wrote Tom Wrobleski in the Staten Island Advance. But if he does decide to stay, Wrobleski continued, local Republicans would be unlikely to challenge Fossella.

The national GOP would prove less reticent. According to Wrobleski, the national party does not want to lose its one seat from the city — “Wall Street movers and shakers want to make sure that they have someone … to go to when they need help” — and has already approached Staten Island District Attorney Daniel Donovan about the race.

The national party is also unlikely to give Fossella any financial help this year when GOP funds are tight and Republicans everywhere are feeling vulnerable, the Daily Politics said. ” Fossella has become the poster boy for anti-family values in the aftermath of his drunken-driving arrest and the stunning revelation that he had fathered a love child,” the blog’s Elizabeth Benjamin wrote. “With its own share of sex scandals — from a senator’s toe-tapping antics in an airport bathroom to another’s Spitzer-esque admission that he hired hookers — the GOP is desperate to restore its pro-family reputation.”

Surveying the scene, Election Advantage, which handicaps races, thinks if Fossella decides to stay and fight, Democrats holds the advantage. But, the blog continued, “If Fossella ultimately does not run again, then … Donovan would probably be the Republican frontrunner, as Republican State Sen. Majority Leader Joe Bruno wants State Sen. Andrew Lanza (R) to run for re-election to the State Senate so it doesn’t threaten Bruno’s narrow Senate majority.” In that case, it concluded, the Republicans have a slight edge.

By Gail Robinson on May 12, 2008, 5:46 pm
In category: Electoral Politics | No Comments »

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