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School Stat Soup
October 14th, 2009

The barrage of education statistics continues, ramped up by the mayoral election campaign.

Earlier this week — and the day before the mayoral candidates’ debate — Schools Chancellor Joel Klein held a glitzy presentation comparing the city’s record with those of other schools districts in the state. Klein declared that city students had advanced more than other New York kids — an effort to rebut arguments that students may be doing better largely because the state’s tests are getting easier.

Seconding that in an editorial, the Daily News cited the numbers and said, “These numbers offer indisputable evidence that (Bloomberg) and Chancellor Joel Klein have worked a sea change in the nation’s largest school system.

Another day, another set of statistics. This time the state’s scores on the math test given under the National Assessment of Educational Proficiency, a national report card popularly know as NAEP. According to Ed Notes on Line, the scores showed “no significant change since 2007 for NY State in either fourth or eighth grade math. Since NYC is such a large part of NY State, this means it is very likely the same for NYC - i.e. no significant improvements since 2007.”

By “hardly budging,” wrote GothamSchools, the national scores are “challenging results from the states own exams that show significant score increases.”

In response, State Education Commissioner David Steiner called for New York to review and redesign tests to be “less predictable.” The New York State NAEP scores in mathematics, released today, are of great concern to the Board of Regents and to me, Steiner wrote in a statement quoted on GothamSchools. We are struck by the contrast between results on the NAEP and on New York States own math tests.

On the state scores, fourth graders gained nine scale score points between 2007 and 2009, while eighth graders picked up 18 points, GothamSchool said. On the other hand, it reported, “According to the NAEP exam, fourth graders average scale scores decreased by two points and eight grade students scores rose by three points.”

In the eyes of Ed Notes, “This is yet more compelling evidence that the NY state exam scores, which showed big jumps statewide at both levels, were badly inflated.”

Analyzing the results, Aaron Pallas wrote, “Whatever the reason, the discrepancy between the NAEP trends and trends in the New York State test scores raises serious questions about what the New York tests are telling us about the academic performance of students in New York State.”

The debate instantly acquired a political spin. “In the city, this is a political issue,” said a posting on the Proud Parenting blog. “Mayor Bloomberg has staked his reputation on his ability to improve schools. It seems his house is built on sand.”

The entry continued, “This (NAEP) assessment is the closest thing we have to transparency. If theres a discrepancy between the states scores and the nations report card we should trust the report card.”

Meanwhile another report out today — this one by State Assemblymember James Brennan — cast doubt on Klein’s pronouncement that the city outpaces the rest of the state. Comparing the performance of city students and those elsewhere in New York between 2003 and 2008, Brennan found that about one third of state districts achieved greater gains than the city on the fourth grade reading test and about half improved more on the eight grade English test. The report found the city did better vis a vis the rest of the state in math.

Why the discrepancy between Klein’s report and Brennan’s? One factor could be the period considered in each report. Brennan looked at 2003 to 2008; Klein at 2002 through 2009.

One nettlesome issue in the debate about education achievements has been when to start the clock. Bloomberg became mayor in January 2002 but did not begin instituting his education reforms until 2003, with most not taking effect until the beginninf of the 2003-2004 school year. Scores, though, registered a big gain between 2002 and 2003 — a jump Klein reportedly downplayed at the time, as education experts lauded the work of some of his predecessors.

Recently, though, Klein has “used the substantial jump in standardized test scores in 2002-03 as the first sign of success thanks to his changes,” Jennifer Medina wrote on City Room. “By doing so, he can show more dramatic improvement across the system.”

In his presentation, “the chancellor tried to take credit where no credit is due — for big increases in test scores that occurred in the winter and spring of 2003, despite the fact that his policies were not implemented until the following fall,” Leonie Haimson wrote on Public School Parents. ” A more accurate and fair analysis would look at data only from 2003-2008; instead of claiming credit for gains that occurred before the Bloomberg/Klein policies were put into place.”

That, it seems, is what Brennan did.

Meanwhile wait for another round of dueling with numbers when the city NAEP scores come out later this fall. “If the citys fourth grade math scores follow the same trend as the states numbers, which fell modestly, Chancellor Joel Kleins reforms could come in for heavy questioning,” GothamSchools wrote.

Probably — but by then the election will be over.

By Gail Robinson on October 14, 2009, 6:18 pm
In category: Albany, Education, Electoral Politics, Measuring UP | No Comments »

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