New York's recovery is happening (photo: Michael Appleton/Mayoral Photography Office)
New York City was the epicenter of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic as it began in the United States. It recorded its first death from the disease on March 1, 2020. The city’s economy also suffered a massive setback during the lockdown in the early months of the pandemic.
A full job recovery is still several years away and the major problems that predated covid and persisted through it — poverty, homelessness, affordable housing, unemployment and under-employment — are still with us in the city and across the nation. Nonetheless, the drive to vaccinate the residents of the city is showing substantial success. If this achievement continues, the city’s ability to control the harm from this deadly disease will give the local economy a real chance to recover and, along with it, a chance for the city to get on top of its many problems, especially compared to many other jurisdictions in this country.
NYC Vaccination Program Outpaces the Nation
The facts are that the residents of New York City are making major progress on getting vaccinated against COVID-19; better progress, in fact, than the rest of the nation. The city’s Department of Health covid vaccine tracker reports that 84.7% of the city’s adults have gotten at least one dose of the vaccine and 77.3% are fully vaccinated as of October 18. By contrast, the CDC is reporting as of that same date, 78.9% of U.S. adults had gotten at least one dose of the vaccine, and 68.4% were fully vaccinated. New York City is doing especially well vaccinating adolescents. Mayor de Blasio stated on October 1 that nearly 75% of 12- to 17-year-olds had gotten at least one dose of the vaccine, substantially better than the national rate of 58% as of October 12 (my calculation using the CDC website data). The city’s decision to use schools as vaccine sites undoubtedly contributed to this success.
Interpreting New York City’s vaccination results is complicated because of under-reporting of vaccination rates by ethnicity, as well as the fact that the city is using older Census data. I have included a note on New York City vaccination data at the end of this article to discuss this concern.
The City’s Economic Recovery from Covid is Weaker Than the Nation’s
New York City needs as much public health and safety as the vaccines can give its residents because the city’s economic recovery is very weak compared to the nation as a whole. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows the contrast — see employment recovery from the depths of the pandemic in April 2020 for New York City and the nation:
The data above show the city lost 927,000 jobs, 20% of its payroll employment, between February and April 2020. By August 2021, it had recovered 454,000 jobs, nearly half of those lost. The nation lost more than 21 million jobs in those first two months of the pandemic’s hold, over 15%, but recovered 17 million jobs, nearly 77%, by August 2021. Jobs dependent on social gathering, like in schools, and the economy’s weak links, like tourism, leisure and hospitality, the arts, recreation, and entertainment, need public health and safety. Policies at all governmental levels and in the private sector, to promote vaccinations will ultimately drive the economic recovery in New York City and elsewhere.
Tourism, Leisure, and Hospitality
A report on the impact of COVID-19 on New York City tourism by State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli indicated this sector lost about 90,000 jobs in 2020. The sector has picked up in 2021 and President Biden’s authorization for vaccinated foreigners to resume travel to the United States begins November 8. Leisure and hospitality employment as a whole dropped over 300,000 — two-thirds of the total — from February to April 2020 and has still only recovered about half those jobs. International travel should stimulate the city’s economy and has significant secondary economic impacts on sectors like retail because international visitors spend plenty of money.
Vaccine Mandates
Vaccination mandates are foundational for the city’s economy. In July 2021 the city initiated a mandate for all its 300,000+ employees that they get vaccinated or get tested weekly, and then followed up with a full mandate for its school system employees to get vaccinated. Courts have so far upheld the city’s school employee vaccine mandate and the de Blasio administration reported that as of October 4, 95% of school system employees have received at least one dose of the vaccine.
The mandates are intended to stabilize and sustain in-school learning and assure parents of their children’s safety. As parents return to the labor market over time, employment in the city as a whole should gain.
On October 20, the city broadened the vaccine mandate to all its employees, beyond schools and its own health care workers, effective November 1. About 160,000 employees are newly covered; the de Blasio administration stated that about 70% of those newly covered have already received at least one vaccine dose. The unvaccinated employees can get $500 if they receive a vaccine at a city-run site by October 29. About 70% of the Police Department and 60% of the Fire and Sanitation Departments have at least one dose already. Based on the experience of the school system, it’s likely that an overwhelming portion of the remaining employees will comply.
The city has mandated proof of vaccination for many indoor locations, including restaurants, theaters, museums, concerts, gyms, and others. Mayor de Blasio said that vaccinations had risen 45% since the various mandates began being issued in July, through the end of September. The vaccine mandates are coinciding with the re-opening of Broadway and the cultural sector.
New York State has also mandated vaccinations for health care employees and is extending the mandate to many care facilities. Federal courts have restrained the State (for the time being) from enforcing the mandate in health care for persons receiving religious exemptions. As of September 27, about 92% of health care employees across the state were vaccinated. The state’s court system has also mandated vaccinations.
The Office Sector and Remote Work
There were 1.6 million office workers in New York City in 2019, according to a report on the impact of COVID-19 for this sector of the economy issued by the State Comptroller in September. This sector only lost 6% of its employment in 2020. The financial industry held most of its employment and contributed extensively to the tax base during the pandemic because most high-paying jobs continued. Remote working enabled much of the office-based workforce to continue their activity. In fact, by September 2021 only about 30% of office work had returned in person on a regular basis. A survey of major employers in this analysis reported on both remote work and vaccination policies:
The survey shows that remote work or hybrid remote and in-person work will continue for many major employers. Although many employers are not imposing vaccine mandates, the federal government’s mandate, not yet in effect, will ultimately affect many tens of thousands of office workers. The widespread vaccination rates in the city and its suburbs indicate many office workers will already be vaccinated upon their return and that many office spaces will have very high portions of their workers vaccinated and enjoy safe returns.
A Resilient City
The city is fortunate that such a major portion of the resident population has enough common sense to embrace getting vaccinated, despite the protests of a tiny minority. This common sense, in combination with the immense effort to distribute and administer the vaccines, may yield an extraordinary percentage of the population fully vaccinated sometime in 2022. The city’s residents and leaders may demonstrate yet again the resiliency that will enable it to match the recoveries from the Fiscal Crisis, 9/11, and the Great Recession.
An Important Note on NYC Vaccination Data
The city Department of Health (DOH) is continuously reporting covid vaccination data on its website, and there is certainly major progress in getting a very large majority of the city’s population vaccinated. As can be seen from the table below, taken from the website updated as of the morning of October 12, 84.1% of the adult population has received at least one dose of the vaccine, and 76.5% is fully vaccinated:
One concern I have is that the percentage of the population vaccinated may be overestimated, but not by a large amount. DOH reports it is using a U.S. Census 2019 population estimate for the city, which is 8.336 million. The U.S. Census population data for 2020 released in August 2021 showed 8.804 million, almost 500,000 more persons than the number being used by DOH.
DOH also reports that move-out and move-in data from the Post Office are not being used. These data indicate that the pandemic affected out-migration from the city in 2020, although some of that may have been temporary. Applying a ratio that adds the nearly 500,000 persons from the 2020 Census to the rates brings first doses and fully vaccinated down about four percentage points each, for one dose to 80% of adults and fully-vaccinated to 72.5%; still better than national rates, which as of October 12 were 78.4% for adults with one dose and 67.9% fully-vaccinated.
Vaccination Rates by Race
DOH also provides demographic and borough breakdowns for vaccinations. However, it is acknowledged in notes on data that vaccinations by race may have omissions from non-reporting. Race/Ethnicity is self-reported, but a person may simply not state their race at the time of vaccination, and/or the health care provider submitting the information to the city may not report the person’s race.
An October 12 DOH table for vaccination rates by race/ethnicity and by gender shows the following:
The race/ethnicity vaccination rate data are not consistent with a population that is 84% vaccinated with one dose. The 2019 Census data used by DOH show New York City is 32% white, 24% Black, 28% Hispanic, 14% Asian, and 2% other. Applying the vaccination rates to these proportions brings the adult one dose vaccination rate to 67%, way below the city’s reported 84% number.
I estimate one dose vaccination rates are more like 80% for whites and Hispanics, close to 70% for Blacks, and 90%+ for Asians.
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Jim Brennan was a member of the New York State Assembly for 32 years, where he chaired four committees. On Twitter @JimBrennanNY.
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Housing repairs (photo: Michael Appleton/Mayoral Photography Office)
When President Biden and Congress first announced the details of the Build Back Better Act, they sent a loud and clear signal to housing advocates and stakeholders that help was finally on the way. The $330 billion investment into the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and $30 billion into the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program both represented the most significant plan in generations to address a worsening housing crisis.
Now, however, Washington is sending a different signal: housing is not important enough. In the latest round of negotiations, Congress is considering cutting the housing programs by more than two thirds, lowering the investment to just $100 billion. That will mean significantly less funding for rental assistance, public housing, and tools that will boost production of housing across the country – and, in that scenario, we all lose.
Let’s be clear: housing is not some arcane policy issue. It materially impacts the lives of every single American, and the reality is that far too many people simply do not have access to the safe, affordable home they deserve. If Congress doesn’t step up and protect the vital housing measures originally proposed, voters will notice.
After all, addressing a worsening housing crisis is the very foundation on which the rest of the social spending bill rests.
Children can’t perform their best at school when they must return to homeless shelters or to other crowded, unsafe living conditions. Families paying more than they can afford on rent are forced to forgo basic necessities every day. Individuals struggling with homelessness continue to interact with the criminal justice system at higher rates when they really need stable housing. Long lasting racial inequities in homeownership continue unabated because there is not enough opportunity. And aging housing stock continues to exacerbate climate crises because it is outdated, inefficient, and not prepared for the 21st century.
These are just some of the many downstream impacts of housing insecurity. And the Build Back Better Act is a rare opportunity to actually make a real difference.
The original proposal called for a historic investment in affordable housing, including $90 billion for rental assistance, $80 billion for public housing, $37 billion for the National Housing Trust Fund (HTF) to produce new low-income units, and $35 billion for HOME Investment Partnership to expand homeownership opportunities, and fixes to the LIHTC program to unlock millions in new private resources and double the production of affordable housing and significantly funded other vital HUD programs.
For New York, the results would be completely transformational. The expanded rental assistance program would increase the number of assisted households by 30%, serving 151,000 additional New Yorkers – 52,000 of whom would be children. Public housing funding could address mounting capital needs at NYCHA, eliminating the repair backlog by 100%, meaning we could finally address an embarrassing emergency in our public housing stock. And tweaks to LIHTC would produce 82,000 new units of affordable housing, ultimately creating 124,000 new jobs, $14 billion in business income, and $5 billion in new tax revenue.
This would help the City and State actually take significant steps towards ending homelessness, increase affordable rental and homeownership supply and address NYCHA’s capital needs. But deep cuts to this planned funding would simply maintain the unacceptable status quo: more than 90,000 people experiencing homelessness on a given night last year across the state, a deficit of almost 650,000 affordable and available rental units, and the majority of low-income households paying more than half their income in rent. City Hall and Albany will continue to make progress for housing on the margins without real help from Washington.
Changing American society for the better starts with addressing the real housing emergency facing far too many people. We got into this mess originally because Washington de-prioritized housing – and we cannot afford to do so again. If we do, it may be decades before we get another chance.
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Rachel Fee is the Executive Director of the New York Housing Conference. On Twitter @RachelFee4NY & @TheNYHC.
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DYCD (photo: @NYCYouth)
As New York City recovers from a historic year fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, the Department of Youth and Community Development is marking a very special anniversary: 25 years as a City agency.
Our agency, DYCD, has seen its fair share of challenges over the last quarter-century but has always risen to the occasion. As the largest municipal funder of capacity-building geared toward a healthy network of nonprofits, our funded providers were critical in the city’s ability to weather and rebound from 9/11, Superstorm Sandy, and COVID-19.
We have centered the agency around a set of community outcomes and common strategies, and have realigned resources to support priorities in areas such as communications, data, partnerships, and professional development. As a result, we have made great strides in transforming DYCD from our respective “silos” to a unified mission—internally, we call it “Solos to Symphony.” That ultimately benefits the agency and the New Yorkers who depend on our funded programs.
DYCD has grown and changed over multiple administrations—from our creation in 1996 under Mayor Giuliani to a renewed focus on afterschool, literacy, and Cornerstone Community Centers at NYCHA complexes during the Bloomberg Administration.
Under Mayor de Blasio, COMPASS/SONYC afterschool was born, making afterschool available to every middle-schooler in the city. Earlier this year, the last of 813 beds for runaway and homeless youth aged 16-24 went online—more than triple the number in 2014. And the agency’s initial $77 million budget has reached a billion dollars for the first time ever this fiscal year, a nearly 1200% increase—most of it under this administration.
Since becoming DYCD commissioner in 2014, I have also focused on the adoption of “settlement house” principles within the agency so that we can better meet the needs of our network of community-based organizations and the New Yorkers they serve.
Settlement houses—44 of them under the umbrella organization United Neighborhood Houses—are deeply embedded in the communities they serve and uniquely positioned to provide the programs and services neighborhoods need the most. By taking lessons from the nonprofit sector’s ability to seamlessly develop holistic strategies from disparate programs and revenue streams, DYCD is more intentional than ever in streamlining processes and “connecting the dots,” making it easier for people who are seeking services to become aware of additional resources that may help them. This has been supported by the development of universal indicators and program applications, strategic planning, greater transparency and efficiency, and more effectively integrated programs.
Looking back at my tenure, I celebrate so many of our shared accomplishments, especially baselined funding for Beacon (the creation of Mayor Dinkins and then-Youth Services Commissioner Richard Murphy in 1991) and the Summer Youth Employment Program. Over the last 20 years, SYEP has become more user-friendly with debit cards, online applications, and direct deposit, and the program now “meets young people where they are” through more concentration on career goals and life skills.
I also am proud of technological innovations such as discoverDYCD, DYCD Connect, and integrated data systems, more focused mission and vision statements, and a redesign and expansion of the Community Needs Assessment to better inform how funding is distributed.
It is bittersweet that I mark our agency’s silver anniversary in my final weeks as DYCD’s fifth commissioner. It has been my privilege of shepherding the agency through a period of unprecedented budget and programming growth. As we prepare to hand the reins over to a new administration, I am confident that DYCD has a solid foundation to move the agency into the next 25 years and beyond.
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Bill Chong, Commissioner, NYC Department of Youth and Community Development. On Twitter @NYCYouth.
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