FiveThirtyEight has taken a look at public opinion polls going back to 1989 and found that the early Democratic frontrunner in the mayoral race has “a near perfect record" of winning the party’s nomination in the primary. That means, according to the author’s analysis, that City Council Speaker Christine Quinn is “very likely" to win the Democratic nomination — given her lead in the polls so far. MIcah Cohen writes:
In five of the past six Democratic primaries for mayor, the candidate who led in an average of polls conducted in the first six months of the election year advanced to the general election. The only exception was in 2009, when then-Represenative Anthony D. Weiner led William C. Thompson Jr., the New York City comptroller, by five percentage points but decided not to formally enter the race.
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