Gotham Gazette

The Place for New York Policy and politics

Topics

Topics

Will Voting Reforms Discourage Minority Voting?


The recent decision to move New York's presidential primary to February 5 -- which is now being called "Super Duper Tuesday" -- is not only expected to give New Yorkers more influence in choosing the Democratic and Republican nominees, it could also boost voter turnout and increase the power of urban and minority voters.

According to recent report by The Century Foundation early primaries in states like California, Nevada, New Jersey and New York mean that Latino voters in particular, "could not only affect the outcomes, but also the topics the candidates focus on, including wage and labor issues, education and immigration reform."

At the same time, though, because of the debacle in Florida in 2000, new voter identification requirements are being implemented that may have the opposite effect, discouraging minority groups from going to the polls.

Voter identification requirements have become a critical part of the national debate over election reform. Supporters of more stringent regulations argue that voter fraud is frequent enough to justify strict new identification requirements. Others disagree, arguing that the consequences far outweigh the benefits.

"At a time when not nearly enough people vote in the United States, some political players are making it more difficult for people to vote," said Tova Wang, a fellow at the Century Foundation and a co-author of a report on voter fraud now at the center of a brewing controversy. According to Wang, the federal Election Assistance Commission rewrote the report's findings before its final release and issued a gag order to keep Wang from speaking about the report.

VOTER IDENTIFICATION REQUIREMENTS

The 2002 Help America Vote Act (known as HAVA) tried to address voter identification issues by calling for updated voting procedures and technology across the country.

HAVA requires that first-time voters present a state driver's license or the last four digits of their Social Security number at the time of registration. Voters with neither form of identification may use a valid photo ID, a current utility bill, bank statements, government check or any other government document that shows the registrant's name and address. Voters who do not supply this information at the time of registration will be asked for it at polls when they go to vote for the first time.

Although HAVA is a federal program, each state must come up with its own ways of complying with the regulations. New York State's laws largely mirror those of HAVA and are not considered overly burdensome by many election reform experts.

IS FRAUD A REAL CONCERN?

The main reason for the new voter identification regulations, proponents argue, is voter fraud. And they point to news stories that appear after nearly every election relating instances of impersonation, double voting, and even votes cast on behalf of the dead.

But the prevalence of voter fraud depends on who you ask, with Republicans generally arguing that it is widespread and Democrats typically arguing that it is not.

A lengthy, bi-partisan study (in pdf) on voter fraud conducted by the Election Assistance Commission concluded only that the issue has "created a great deal of debate among academics, election officials, and voters" and noted that "past studies of these issues have been limited in scope and some have been riddled with bias."

But that mild conclusion proved to be controversial. The New York Times reported that the editors of the report intentionally revised the findings of the primary authors to reflect the sentiments of White House officials (to view original draft report, in pdf, go here). In a statement released April 26, Wang stated "It has been my desire to participate in this discussion and share my experience as a researcher, expert and co-author of the report. … Unfortunately, the EAC has barred me from speaking." Wang continues, "As numerous press reports indicate, the conclusions that we found in our research and included in our report were revised by the EAC, without explanation or discussion with me, my co-author or the general public. … From the beginning of the project to this moment, my co-author and I have been bound in our contracts with the EAC to silence regarding our work, subject to law suits and civil liability if we violate the EAC-imposed gag order."

There has been little prosecution of fraudulent voting. Since 2000, the Justice Department has charged only 120 people of fraudulent voting. Eighty-six were convicted. This low level of prosecution been cited by some as a possible explanation for the firing of eight U.S. attorneys by Attorney General Alberto Gonzales.

WILL NEW REQUIREMENTS DETER VOTERS?

Advocates for minority communities argue that even minimal identification requirements can disenfranchise eligible voters, because people of color and immigrants are more often subjected to requests for identification, either properly or improperly.

In the February Special Election in Nassau County to fill a vacant State Senate seat, voting rights groups became alarmed that there might be widespread voter intimidation at the polls because of comments by Joseph Mondello, the Republican Party Chairman for New York State and Nassau County. "Our poll watchers and election inspectors will challenge people to show some kind of identification as to who they are," Mondello reportedly said. "They have a right to ask for identification to make sure you are John Smith. Our people have been cavalier about this in the past. This time, in this election, we're dearly concerned."

According to the Asian American Legal Defense Fund, overzealous poll workers have been improperly implementing identification requirements at voting places in recent elections, and minority voters and voters with limited English are the groups most often asked for identification when it is not actually required.

Research also suggests that Latinos, African Americans, and Asian Americans are less likely to vote when required to show identification than when they simply have to state their names.

THE NEED FOR VOTER EDUCATION

To avoid confusion at the polls and the disenfranchisement of voters, election reform advocates have argued for years that New York City, with such a large and diverse population, has to be sensitive to a wide array of voter needs that other localities might not need to consider.

City residents, for example, are less likely to drive or own a car than their suburban and rural counterparts, and therefore are less likely to hold a driver's license.

The personal and cultural experiences of many of New York City's immigrants, some argue, should be taken into consideration. For instance, a significant portion of New York's immigrants come from oppressive regimes where identification cards were used by authorities as a form of intimidation.

Members of these communities may be less likely to carry identification, or to provide it on demand, especially if it is not legally required.

Unfortunately many voters are unaware of their rights. And so some voters who are asked to show identification may simply decide to leave the polling station and not return. While New York may not have the strict identification requirements that other states have, some experts fear that the misuse of HAVA identification requirements, especially when it results in the disenfranchisement of a voter, could damage long and short term voter participation among minority and non-English speaking voters.

The New York City Board of Elections has been urged to increase poll worker training and voter education, to ensure that poll workers and voters are aware of the HAVA requirements and their rights. With the eventual introduction of new voting machines and processes, poll workers will be asked to perform more services for voters and voters will be less familiar with the process.

In the coming years, overall training and education will become more important for the Boards of Elections. Election reform advocates, civic groups and community organizations will be asked to play a significant role in educating voters as well.

Doug Israel is director of public policy and advocacy for Citizens Union Foundation, which publishes Gotham Gazette. Andrea Senteno is program associate.

 

New Bills: Housing Repairs and a Street Fight


City Council members on April 12 introduced two bills that would create a system to provide more rigorous inspection and more extensive repairs for buildings with flagrant housing violations. Council members took advantage of the meeting to denounce controversial radio host Don Imus, but at the same time, they ignited a furor of their own when a routine bill to change the names of a number of city streets included an avenue named after activist Sonny Carson.

Safer Housing

The two housing bills would increase the city's power to inspect and repair neglected buildings at the landlords' expense.

Intro 560, introduced by Councilmembers Vincent Gentile, Melinda Katz and Erik Dilan, would help city inspectors gain access to buildings with violations. According to Eric Kuo of Councilmember Vincent Gentile's office, housing inspectors currently lack clear guidelines to gain access to buildings when property owners refuse to let them in. The bill sets forth a procedure for inspectors to document their unsuccessful visits and secure warrants from the court.

Under the proposed Safe Housing Act (Intro 561), introduced by Councilmembers Letitia James, Gale Brewer and Erik Dilan, and Speaker Christine Quinn, the city's Department of Housing Preservation and Development would force repairs of residential buildings with the most egregious safety violations. The city currently has the power to make emergency repairs, but Kate Suisman, James' chief of staff, explained that these repairs are not applied systematically and often only address immediate problems, such as a leaking pipe. Additionally, landlords avoid completing repairs and sometimes have to be taken to court.

Ray Brescia of the Urban Justice Center said of the current difficulties in enforcing housing safety, "More than half the battle is to first get HPD interested in a building." In addition to activating enforcement of the city's worst buildings, the bill would compel landlords to carry out repairs.

With the act's increased authority, the city would target 200 buildings a year for rigorous inspections and "top to bottom" repairs - for instance, beyond fixing a leak, the city could require new pipes throughout the structure.

Under the proposed law, if a landlord refuses to comply with required building work within four months, the city would complete the repairs and charge the owner. According to Housing Commissioner Shaun Donovan, the program would cost $10 million a year, some of which would be recovered from landlords and building liens.

Many New York City buildings chronically fall into hazardous conditions. Repeat violations are common with 46 percent of the 10,000 buildings that received emergency repairs in 2006 also having received them in 2005, and 22 percent having such repairs in 2004 too.

Opportunistic landlords may prefer to neglect rent stabilized units until the tenants leave rather than make the repairs, a trend which Councilmember James summarizes as "displacement by neglect."

With the number of building violations increasing and the demand for affordable housing in the city remaining high, the program seeks to protect vulnerable tenants and to maintain the condition of affordable housing.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the New York Immigrant Coalition, property owners and agents all support the measures. Frank Ricci of the Rent Stabilization Association said, the bills would help "target the really irresponsible owners … who give everyone else a bad name."

Street Naming Controversy

Sonny Abubadika Carson Avenue was one of 53 lanes, ways, corners, plazas and other streets to be renamed in Into 556, Council Speaker Christine Quinn conceded that the council's fondness for renaming streets is often ridiculed, but she urged her fellow members to separate out the consideration of the Carson renaming because of his anti-white statements and "divisiveness."

Sonny Carson, who died in 2003, was a Korean War veteran and active in several Brooklyn movements including the Republic of New Afrika, the African Burial Ground project, securing voting rights for ex-prisoners, the Black Men's Movement Against Crack, protests of police brutality and boycotts of Korean groceries. He also helped to establish Medgar Evers College. Councilmember Councilman Al Vann, who proposed the name change at the recommendation of the local communyt board, cited Carson's civic work in Bedford-Stuyvesant as grounds for the honor.

A recent New York Post editorial agreed with Quinn. And the divisiveness over Carson Avenue was evident at a meeting of the Council parks committee last week as members voted along racial lines to remove the name from the bill. Several protestors were removed from the meeting room.

Though Carson's name will not grace an honorary avenue, at least for the time being, Jerry Orbach Way named for the Broadway and Law & Order star will make the cut after a few setbacks during the community board recommendations process earlier this year.

Councilmember Charles Barron stated that if Carson Avenue were removed from the bill package, he would demand to know the background of all individuals who have street names proposed for them.

Defacement of Religious Items

Also at the meeting, Councilmembers Vincent Gentile and Peter Vallone introduced a bill to protect religious items and displays on private property. Intro 559 would extend the law against damaging houses of religious worship and their contents to private property. Under the proposed bill, such a crime would constitute a misdemeanor and carry punishments of imprisonment for up to a year or a fine between $500 and $2,500, as well as possible civil penalties. In neighborhoods such as Bensonhurst in Gentile's district, numerous religious displays outside of people's homes have been defaced.

Councilmember Vallone also introduced a bill to institute criminal penalties for public lewdness.

Councilmember James was planning to introduce a resolution calling for the firing of Don Imus at the next council meeting, but now that CBS has already dismissed him, the resolution will likely be tabled or modified.

Other Bills

Resolution allowing council to sign onto amicus brief

Intro requiring paint and other markings to be removed by contractors upon completion of construction projects

Resolution calling for new zoning considerations of small single family homes

 

Jittery Wall Street, Calm City?


The 400-point drop in the Dow Jones average on February 27 was the biggest Wall Street decline in nearly four years. It capped a day of international stock market jitters that began with steep declines in Hong Kong and Shanghai and then traveled around the world. With New York's economy so dependent on finance, many city residents understandably fear any signs of weakness on Wall Street.

So is there reason to be concerned? If Wall Street sneezes, will New York catch pneumonia? Many parts of the economy continue to be robust, with jobs and wages growing, although they still remain below the peak levels of the 1990s. Such overall data and the trends for specific parts of the local economy suggest that New York City’s economy may slow but it won’t turn down unless Wall Street settles into a sustained slump.

READING THE SIGNS

‘Driving’ The Economy

Many economists use the concept of “drivers” to refer to sources of economic stimulus or to the sectors that heavily influence the economy’s course. For example, consumer spending is often referred to as the main factor influencing the magnitude of growth in the national economy. In New York City, Wall Street, tourism, professional services, information (media), and real estate/construction, are often considered the main “drivers” of the regional economy. With the exception of real estate/construction, these “drivers” are also “export” sectors that cater to a national or international market and serve to bring spending and incomes into local economy. The real estate/construction sector serves this purpose indirectly.

Some experts see indications that the economy could stumble in the coming months. Former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan believes there is a one-third chance of recession before the end of this year. Greenspan reasons that the economic expansion is starting to totter a bit in its old age and that a worsening slump in the real estate market could knock it off-kilter enough to trigger a recession.

The bursting of the housing "bubble" is widely acknowledged as the economy's biggest trouble spot. Housing prices and sales have fallen sharply in many areas, although not in New York City, and the low mortgage rates that fueled the housing frenzy are history. Home mortgage delinquencies and defaults have reached record levels. Many "subprime" lenders, the finance companies that specialize in granting mortgages to people with weak credit records, are in serious trouble. In a manner reminiscent of the savings-and-loan crisis of 20 years ago, we are beginning to pay the price for the financing practices that drove the current real estate boom.

Pessimists point to other signs of economic weakness, as well: slowing job growth, a declining manufacturing sector, weak business investment, record trade deficits and rising labor costs. Like Greenspan, they conclude that the U.S. economy is slowing further and could tip into recession. (While there is no single set of criteria defining a recession, it is often considered to be a period of two quarters of declining economic activity or output.)

But other economists point to different indicators and draw a happier conclusion. Citing low unemployment, rising wages, rising bank deposits, low inflation-adjusted interest rates, and a relatively strong global economy, these observers expect continued growth. The optimists do not believe sub-prime lending problems will spread, and they tend to see the manufacturing slump as an opportunity to shift capital and labor to sectors with brighter growth prospects.

Both pessimists and optimists will agree, though, that economic forecasting is tricky. A recent Wall Street Journal poll of 60 economic forecasters predicted, on average, a 25 percent chance of recession over the next 12 months. Testifying before Congress recently, current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he expected a continuation of “moderate” growth, but emphasized that the Fed needed to be “flexible given the uncertainty we face.”

THE LOCAL PICTURE

How does any of this play out for the New York economy? Certainly, New York is touched by all of these forces to some extent. On balance, however, it appears that New York City is better positioned than much of the U.S. economy. Many "drivers" of the regional economy continue strong. [See box.]

Real Estate

Despite the slump in many parts of the country, the local real estate market remains robust. Housing prices generally have held up, easing slightly in some neighborhoods while continuing to rise in others. While most renters and prospective home buyers without millions to spend have a hard time affording a decent place to live, the luxury residential market continues to flourish, boosted most recently by record Wall Street bonuses.

Meanwhile, the market for office space in Manhattan is soaring. Stephen Ross, a major New York real estate developer and chair of the Real Estate Board of New York, recently claimed that the condition of the commercial real estate market here couldn't "get any better". The average rent in Manhattan hit $53 a square foot in the first three months of 2007, an all time high, according to the brokerage firm Cushman Wakefield.

However, mortgage foreclosures in New York City jumped 18 percent in the last half of 2006, and an alarming number of low- and moderate-income families are at risk of losing their homes. The Neighborhood Economic Development Advocacy Project estimates that 15,000 homeowners will face foreclosure this year, with the biggest impact coming in predominantly minority neighborhoods like South Jamaica and Cambria Heights in Queens, Bedford-Stuyvesant and East New York in Brooklyn, and Williamsbridge in the Bronx.

Construction

With several large public transportation projects and various publicly subsidized building projects starting to get underway, the outlook for New York City construction activity is brighter than it has been since the 1960s. For construction, the greater worry is the rising cost of materials and the possibility of capacity constraints.

Tourism

Record levels of tourists have kept most hotels fairly full for the past three years. New construction will add an estimated 5,000 hotel rooms to the city in 2007, largely offsetting the number lost to luxury condo conversions over the last three years. The white tablecloth restaurant industry has been amply fed by higher tourist spending, as well as by rapid high-income growth.

Finance

Although New York's financial sector still provides several thousand fewer jobs than it did at its peak in 2000, Wall Street profits have grown impressively in recent years (the top five firms had combined profits of over $30 billion last year) and compensation packages are as generous as ever. This winter's bonus season saw a record $24 billion paid out on Wall Street, according to estimates by the State Comptroller's office.

The city's economic horizon is not without a few clouds. The most worrisome is probably the vulnerability of certain Wall Street firms that lent heavily to sub-prime lenders. The Economist magazine recently warned that the profit growth of financial powerhouses linked to sub-prime lenders "looks set to fall."

THE JOB PICTURE

Wall Street may have a hugely disproportionate effect on the New York economy, but like the Yankees, it is not the only game in town.

The number of private sector jobs in New York grew at a fairly strong 1.8 percent annual rate for the last three years. For the past several months, the city’s job growth has nearly matched that of the U.S. economy overall. Although this relatively robust job growth still leaves the city with about 50,000 fewer jobs than it had in December 2000, New York City’s job growth accounts for a disproportionate share of the state’s job growth during the recovery. The city’s solid job growth coupled with weak growth in most of the rest of the state means that jobs have been growing in the city at a pace three times that of the balance of New York State over the past three years.

Five industries each had employment growth of five percent or better in 2006. In order of most jobs gained, these were professional services, securities, home health care, construction, and banking. Together they accounted for much of the city’s total job gain. Within professional services, advertising and accounting employment grew by double digits.

With the exception of banking, these industries are also among the overall leaders in job growth since 2003. Other industries accounting for the city’s job growth during the recovery include (in order of most jobs added): retail trade, restaurants, social services, private educational services, civic and religious organizations, real estate, and doctor’s offices. For retail trade and real estate, job growth was fastest in 2004, the first full year of recovery, but has slowed since then.

Similarly, other sectors have their own dynamics and face broad trends that need to be understood in taking the economy’s pulse.

Take healthcare for example. Employment in home healthcare services has expanded by 40 percent since mid-2003, and jobs in doctors’ offices and outpatient care centers have increased by 10 percent. On the other hand, while hospitals and nursing homes together employ over 200,000 workers in New York City, there has not been any net gain in institutional employment over the past three-and-a-half years.

The broader leisure and hospitality sector, which encompasses hotels, restaurants and the arts, has been a steady contributor to recovery job gains. Both performing arts and restaurants have increased jobs by 13 percent since mid-2003. But the net employment level in hotels has risen by less than five percent because the conversion of hotels to condominiums. The recent boomlet in hotel construction should again boost the hotel workforce.

And not all parts of the economy have thrived. Manufacturing and telecommunications are the only major sectors to have lost jobs during the city’s recovery. Since mid-2003, both have lost about one-sixth of their employment bases, with manufacturing losing 20,700 jobs while a net of 4,100 telecommunications jobs have disappeared (the loss of jobs in wired telecom has far exceeded the growth in wireless telecom). Employment in both manufacturing and telecommunications is off by about 40 percent since 2000.

Telecommunications is part of the broader information sector that includes modestly sized, but high profile industries such as publishing, motion picture production, and broadcasting. These industries have seen only slight job growth, ranging from one to three percent, since mid-2003.

WHAT THE NUMBERS MAY MISS

Economists are beginning to note that the State Labor Department payroll jobs data may be missing an important part of the story: the rise in the self-employed. Indications are that the number of self-employed people and workers considered “independent contractors” are increasing at a faster rate than the number of people on a payroll. Many businesses are hiring people as free-lancers or consultants and not calling them “employees.” Businesses that treat workers as “independent contractors” do not make payments for payroll taxes or social insurance premiums. It is hard to pinpoint how much of New York City’s job growth is in the form of “self-employment” or “independent contractors,” but state-level data indicate that there was an increase of over 200,000 in this category between 2000 and 2004. During this same period, the net decline in payroll jobs was close to 200,000.

THE WAGE PICTURE

Last year saw the first real gain in wages in New York City since 2002. This is based on the median hourly wage derived from the monthly Census Bureau survey of households. If all wages are ranked from lowest to highest, the median is that wage at the mid-point in the distribution. To look at wage changes over time, economists usually adjust the survey data for inflation and look at the trend in “real” wages. In 2006, New York City saw a 2.4 percent increase in the real median hourly wage. Although the median wage had increased fairly steadily through the late 1990s to 2002, when adjusted for inflation, the real value of the median wage was still lower in 2006 than it was in the early 1990s.

A continued growth in the median wage could help sustain economic growth in New York City in the face of possible turbulence at the national level. Despite the good news on wages and in many parts of the economy, the biggest risk to the New York City economic health remains a downturn on Wall Street. For now, though, that is only a possibility and not a probability. And many other parts of the economy should continue to generate jobs and economic stimulus – even if the stock market gets the jitters.

James Parrott is deputy director and chief economist for the Fiscal Policy Institute.

 



Print Friendly and PDF

Editor's Choice


Gotham Gazette: New York Voters Approve $4.2 Billion Environmental Bond Act
New York Voters Approve $4.2 Billion Environmental Bond Act
Gotham Gazette: 
New York City Voters Approve Racial Justice Ballot Measures
New York City Voters Approve Racial Justice Ballot Measures
Gotham Gazette: 
Housing Development in New York City Slows to a Crawl as Officials Debate Tax Incentives
Housing Development in New York City Slows to a Crawl as Officials Debate Tax Incentives
Gotham Gazette: 
City Council Examines Low Voter Turnout, Moving Local Elections to Even Years City Council Examines Low Voter Turnout, Moving Local Elections to Even Years