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A Closer Look at 2022 Gubernatorial Election Results Shows Why New York Democrats Must Pay Better Attention to Latino Voters


Gov. Hochul (photo: Kevin P. Coughlin/Office of Governor Kathy Hochul)


How several hundred Latino-majority election districts voted in the 2022 gubernatorial race between Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and Republican Congressional Representative Lee Zeldin should prompt Democrats to pay more attention to Latino voters’ needs.  

Perhaps the biggest finding is that Latinos—traditionally among the most loyal Democrats in the state—moved toward the Republican candidate. Though the movement is not large enough for Democrats to be alarmed, unless Democrats engage and invest resources in Latinos now, they can potentially see a much larger defection among Latinos.

Key findings of my new analysis of voter data by election district include:

-Turnout in 2022 increased by over 200,000 votes statewide compared to the previous gubernatorial general election in 2018, when Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo fended off Republican County Executive Marc Molinaro’s challenge.

-Despite this statewide increase, New York City saw a 15% decline in voting participation (from over 2 million voters to just under 1.8 million). By contrast, many counties outside the city, like Nassau, Suffolk, and Erie, saw increases in voting participation compared to the previous gubernatorial election. The largest increase was seen in Erie, Governor Hochul’s home county.

-Statewide, Latino voting participation declined 19% from 2018 to 2022, with just under half-a-million Latinos going to the polls in 2022 (Estimates are based on my analysis of election results and the use of demographic modeling data.)

-The largest decline in Latino voting participation across overall was in New York City. Only 285,176 Latino voters cast a ballot, a 28% decline from 2018.

-Of the 285,000+ Latino voters who voted in New York City in 2022, 50% were registered Democrats compared to almost 60% in 2018, an almost 10% decline in voting participation among Latino Democrats in the city.

-Latino support in New York City for the top of the Democratic ticket declined by over 10% from 2018 to 2022. In majority Latino election districts across the city in 2018, support for Cuomo was 90-95%. Support for Molinaro registered below 5% in most of those districts. In 2022, support for Hochul in the same areas hovered between 78% and 82%. Roughly 20% of Latinos in these areas supported Zeldin.

What can we conclude from all this?

Latinos continue to support Democrats in large though decreasing numbers.

From 2018 to 2022 there was a significant decline in Latino voting participation in New York City, and an increase in Latino support for the Republican candidate for governor.

Yet that increase hardly signals a game-changing political shift in New York. We will need to wait until the 2024 election cycle for more clues about Latino voters’ participation and their party preference. We may see some indications via the 2023 New York City Council elections and public polling ahead of the real evidence in the 2024 elections.

So what factors prompt both a decline in voting participation and seemingly increased support for Republicans?

While the reasons behind this decline are complex, we do know that low voter turnout among Latinos is in part a direct result of lack of investment in and engagement of Latino voters.

Bernard Fraga, in his excellent data-driven book, The Turnout Gap, has observed that when political parties and candidates fail to engage Latinos, turnout lags. But intentional and strategic engagement efforts, tackling critical policy issues that affect Latino communities, and investing in the political empowerment of Latinos through the support and training of Latino candidates all remind Latinos of their value and importance in the political/electoral sphere.

Factors that led to a 28% decline in Latino voting participation in New York City include the Hochul campaign and the State Democratic Party relying on surrogates and TV and radio ads. This tactic does not work for Latinos, who respond better to personal contact and sustained engagement. In short, it is the bread-and-butter grassroots approach to campaigning that Latinos respond to more favorably, and which Hochul and the state party failed to do. Furthermore, a six-figure sum was a paltry investment in the State Democratic Party’s Nueva York Initiative—purportedly an effort to woo Latinos to the party of which Hochul is the de facto leader.

Back just before the 2022 general election, I warned, “She may win [Latinos’] vote, but it’ll likely be with a smaller margin than that of any of her Democratic predecessors.” This is exactly what transpired.

The shifts we are seeing in Latino voter preference are not significant enough to conclude that Latinos are on the verge of initiating a Republican wave, though some of the shifts could make the difference in select local races like for the State Legislature or City Council. But something is happening and our leaders need to pay attention.

Many Latinos feel that Democrats are abandoning them on issues like jobs, public safety, education, and affordable housing, and in terms of their presence in our communities. In the 2024 election cycle, will we see widespread Latino defection from the Democratic Party? Or will we finally see political parties make a real investment in Latinos?

***
Eli Valentin is a political analyst and author of the forthcoming book, Reinhold Niebuhr: A Political Life. On Twitter @EliValentinNY.

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