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40 Questions for New York Politics in 2016


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photo: William Alatriste


Happy new year! As we jump right into 2016, Gov. Andrew Cuomo prepares for his State of the State and budget address, Mayor Bill de Blasio works to improve his public approval ratings, and the two keep on feuding. There's a lot to look for in the new year, here are about 40 political questions we're asking as the year begins - if you want to share them, answer any, or let us know one we missed, tweet @GothamGazette:

  1. How will the Cuomo-de Blasio feud play out?
  2. Who's next for Preet Bharara?
  3. What will Albany do about preventing public corruption?
    1. Will the LLC loophole close?
    2. Will New York move forward on a public campaign finance system?
    3. Will there be agreement on pension forfeiture?
    4. Will further limits be placed on legislators' outside income?
    5. Will legislator salaries be raised?
    6. Does the budget process become more transparent?
  4. What kind of Assembly reforms will Speaker Carl Heastie allow in terms of the ways in which his legislative house conducts its business?
  5. How does the Governor's minimum wage push wind up?
  6. What happens with the 421-a tax break/affordable housing program?
  7. Will the de Blasio administration show significant progress in turning around struggling schools?
  8. What happens with mayoral control of city schools, as dictated by state policy?
  9. What do teacher evaluations look like next, as dictated by state policy?
  10. What's the future of the Common Core in New York?
  11. Does the opt-out movement continue to grow?
  12. How do the 2016 elections affect which party controls the state Senate?
    1. Who wins the special election for the seat previously held by Dean Skelos?
    2. Who wins other vacant state legislative seats, like that held by Sheldon Silver?
  13. Will de Blasio improve his relationship with Albany Democrats?
  14. Can de Blasio effectively reduce the street and shelter homeless populations?
  15. How will the city and the state approach the homelessness crisis together/separately?
  16. Will New York "raise the age" of criminal responsibility from 16 (to 17 or 18)?
  17. Will de Blasio successfully negotiate paid parental leave with the city's municipal unions after announcing he is offering it to nonunion city employees?
  18. Will the State move on a paid family leave program?
  19. Can Cuomo show more progress in his efforts to revive struggling city and regional economies?
  20. How do the mayor's rezoning proposals fare in the City Council?
  21. How does City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito differentiate herself from Bill de Blasio?
  22. Will the City Council move any bills that the mayor isn't behind - like the Right to Know Act?
    1. Will de Blasio use a veto for the first time as mayor?
  23. What's next for Mark-Viverito as she faces term-limits (at the end of 2017)?
  24. Can the Mayor keep making progress toward his affordable housing goals?
  25. What will city elected officials' compensation increases look like once the mayor and Council come to an agreement based on the compensation commission's recommendations?
    1. Will Council pay increases come with the elimination of lulus and other reforms?
  26. Who will replace Charlie Rangel in Congress?
  27. How does it go for the two new District Attorneys, in the Bronx and on Staten Island?
  28. Can the NYPD continue to drive crime down, reducing murders after a small rise, while also improving community relations?
  29. Will there be progress on Rikers Island?
  30. What steps will the City take to desegregate its schools?
  31. What does Bill de Blasio's cabinet look like after a deputy mayor is replaced and the homeless services department is reassessed?
    1. Will other top officials leave the administration?
  32. What will happen with Uber?
  33. Will the City pass a plastic bag fee?
  34. Is there a compromise on reducing Central Park carriage horses?
  35. Can de Blasio improve his public approval ratings?
  36. Does anyone formidable emerge to declare a challenge to de Blasio for 2017?
  37. What will Comptroller Scott Stringer's charter school audits look like?
    1. What other audits and reports come from Stringer's office?
  38. Will Public Advocate Tish James continue to use litigation against the city to seek change? If so, what suits?
  39. How are New York officials involved in the presidential race?
    1. How will de Blasio, Cuomo, Mark-Viverito and other city and state officials who have endorsed her be involved in Hillary Clinton's campaign?
    2. Who wins New York in the Democratic and Republican primaries?
  40. Who becomes the next President of the United States?

***
by Ben Max, Gotham Gazette
@tweetBenMax

The Week Ahead in New York Politics, January 4


New York City Hall

New York City Hall


Happy New Year!

So far, New York politics in 2016 looks a lot like 2015. On Sunday, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced a new Executive Order related to homelessness that appears to be the opening salvo in his plan to take aim at the issue, most pressingly in New York City, where he's criticized Mayor Bill de Blasio's handling of the crisis that includes about 60,000 homeless people. Cuomo's order notes that homelessness is a problem around the state and says that when temperatures are below freezing, municipalities must provide shelter to homeless individuals, move homeless people to shelter, extend shelter hours, and maintain quality shelter conditions that meet state and local laws and regulations.

The move gets at the rivalry between the governor and the mayor, which shows little sign of abating, despite the fact that there are real policy issues - and lives - at stake. De Blasio has battled a persistent homeless census, issues with the conditions of homeless shelters, and a good deal of criticism from the governor and others, which has all led to a shake-up in his administration. To fight homelessness, de Blasio has enacted a good deal of new policy and drastically increased funding toward a variety of programs, but he has only just recently been able to level off a growing number of people without consistent housing.

On Sunday, the de Blasio administration was quick to point out that the governor's executive order does little, if anything, to change things in the city, which already has a must-shelter law and where the city recently announced new protocols for shelter hours and services. There is one main point of contention, though, which is the order's provision that homeless individuals must be moved to shelter - something the de Blasio administration says can only be mandated through state law.

De Blasio is sure to get questions about these issues when he holds a press conference centered around another topic Monday morning in Brooklyn - see below for details.

Cuomo, meanwhile, is gearing up for his January 13 State of the State and budget address, which is likely to include other policies aimed at homelessness. Cuomo is set to make an announcement on Monday in Manhattan - see below for details.

The state Legislature returns to Albany for its first session day of 2016 on Wednesday of this week. There are legislative hearings on the minimum wage and the failed Health Republic insurance exchange this week - see below for details.

Later this week, de Blasio is likely to hold a ceremony to sign his own recent Executive Order, the one mandating paid parental leave for about 20,000 nonunion city employees. De Blasio announced the policy in late December and promised to reopen collective bargaining with city unions in order to make the benefit part of their contracts. He's also looking to the state and federal governments to act on paid family leave so that all New Yorkers (and Americans) can take time off to care for a new child or a sick or elderly relative (de Blasio's initial policy is only for new parents, it does not cover care for sick or elderly relatives, but most paid family leave bill proposals do). [Read: De Blasio Moves on Paid Parental Leave]

As always, there's a great deal happening all over the city, with many events to be aware of - read our day-by-day rundown below.

***Do you have events or topics for us to include in an upcoming Week Ahead in New York Politics?
E-mail Gotham Gazette editor Ben Max: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.***

The run of the week in detail:

Monday
On Monday at 7:15 a.m. outside Barclays Center in Brooklyn, "Mayor de Blasio, Senator Charles Schumer, elected officials and senior Administration leadership will meet morning commuters...to pass out flyers on the City's new commuter benefits law. Tomorrow is the first work day after the law went into effect on January 1." Read about the new transit benefit laws here: New Transit Program Called 'Win-Win' for Many Commuters and Employers.

At about 7:30 a.m. inside Barclays Center, "the Mayor will hold a press conference to discuss commuter benefits." Then, at 1:30 p.m. Monday at One Police Plaza, de Blasio and NYPD Commissioner Bratton "will hold a press conference to discuss historically low crime numbers in New York City."

At 11 a.m. Monday at 1199 SEIU headquarters in Manhattan, Gov. Cuomo will make an announcement, kicking off "The Mario Cuomo Campaign for Economic Justice." City officials, including Comptroller Scott Stringer, will attend.

Tuesday
At 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, City Council Members Dan Garodnick and Rosie Mendez will co-host a community town hall focused on "Homelessness on the East Side" at the Parish Hall of the Church of the Epiphany. A variety of other Manhattan elected officials are also co-sponsoring and will either attend or send representatives.

Wednesday
The New York State Legislature holds its first day of 2016 legislative session in Albany on Wednesday.

At 9 a.m. on Wednesday in Albany, the Senate Standing Committees on Health and Insurance will hold a public meeting about "The demise of Health Republic and preparing for the future."

At the City Council on Wednesday:

  • At 9:30 a.m., the Committee on Housing and Buildings will meet about a resolution calling on the city and state to sign a fourth New York-New York supportive housing plan.
  • At 10 a.m., the Committee on Finance will meet to discuss a budget extender and two items related to Business Improvement Districts
  • At noon, the Council will hold the year's first Stated Meeting. As always, this is expected to be prefaced by the Council Speaker's pre-stated press conference.

Thursday
At 8:30 a.m., Senator Charles Schumer "will discuss Congress' year-end budget and how it impacts New York" at an Association for a Better New York breakfast event.

At the City Council at 10 a.m. Thursday, the Committee on Aging will meet for an oversight hearing about social adult day care.

At the state Legislature on Thursday: an 11 a.m. public hearing in Albany held by the Senate Standing Committee on Labor to analyze "the overall impact increasing the statewide minimum wage to $15/hour would have on workers, employers, and the state as a whole."

Friday and the weekend
Nothing on our radar right now, but that can easily change as events are announced once the week gets going. Stay tuned for updates here and elsewhere.

Read more recent highlights from Gotham Gazette:

***
Have events or topics for us to include in an upcoming Week Ahead in New York Politics? E-mail Gotham Gazette executive editor Ben Max any time: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. (please use "For Week Ahead" as email subject).

***
by Ryan Brady and Ben Max
@GothamGazette

Predictions! Experts Look Ahead to New York Politics in 2016


de Blasio new year's family festivities

Ringing in the new year (photo: Ed Reed/Mayoral Photography Office)


As we usually do about this time of year, Gotham Gazette asked New York politicos to look into their crystal balls for predictions for the year ahead. Below you'll find insights from elected officials, journalists, advocates, analysts, and others who are tuned in to New York politics.

Looking back at last year's predictions for this year, some of our forecasters did quite well (see Nicole Gelinas, Ruben Diaz Jr., Alexis Grenell); while others missed the mark (see Eric Adams, Sal Albanese, Bob Gangi). Gelinas predicted that the Central Park carriage horses would not be out of a job, and was right; Diaz Jr. predicted that new Bronx Metro North stations would get funded, and was right; and Grenell predicted that 9 out of 10 Women's Equality Act planks would get passed in a compromise, and was right. Meanwhile, Adams predicted Brooklyn winning the 2016 DNC and hosting a Pope Francis mass; Albanese predicted Bill Bratton would be out as NYPD commissioner; and Gangi predicted the mayor would end broken windows policing - none of which came true.

See a new round of political predictions, these for 2016, below.

***Have something to add to the conversation? Tweet us @GothamGazette. And, be sure to read the latest reporting from Gotham Gazette; including our look back at The Top Ten Stories of 2015 in New York Politics and much more.***

PREDICTIONS for 2016 in NEW YORK POLITICS:

Kathryn Wylde, president & CEO, Partnership for New York City
The City Council will rise to the occasion and pass the Mayor's Mandatory Inclusionary and Quality Affordable Housing Zoning Amendments, but the 421a incentives needed to complete the city's production goals will get kicked back to the legislature, and no one can predict how that ends up.

Alyssa Katz, editorial board, New York Daily News

  • The 421-a real estate tax abatement expires as construction unions and developers are not able to resolve their differences by their mid-January deadline. Spooked by the Sheldon Silver and Dean Skelos corruption scandals, the Legislature will not revive it in anything resembling past form.
  • Mayor de Blasio prevails on the City Council to pass his mandatory inclusionary zoning plan for affordable housing, secured at the price of unplanned-for increased city spending to subsidize low-income housing above and beyond the zoning requirements.
  • Either Police Commissioner Bill Bratton or Schools Chancellor Carmen Fariña will announce their retirement by the end of 2016.
  • The school testing opt-out movement persists despite Gov. Cuomo's Common Core revamp.
  • Gov. Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio reach a pained detente, driven by de Blasio's need to secure ongoing mayoral control of the schools.
  • The Brennan Center wins its lawsuit to close the LLC loophole, in an important victory to clean up New York's elections.
  • Hillary Clinton takes New York's Democratic primary, but Bernie Sanders comes within 20 points of her. Chris Christie and Marco Rubio make decent showings in the New York Republican primary but Donald Trump wins.

Adam Forman, Center for an Urban Future

  • Schools in Brooklyn Heights and the Upper West Side are rezoned. Realtors in Rye, Ridgewood, and Great Neck enjoy record breaking annual sales commissions.
  • Mayor de Blasio bans all unpaid internships in city government. Employers across the city soon follow suit.
  • East New York residents agree to a proposed rezoning on the condition that Cobble Hill and the West Village are subject to an equivalent upzoning. The entire plan is scuttled immediately.

Michael Powell, columnist, The New York Times

  • Mayor de Blasio announces a 51st State secession movement. Gov. Cuomo announces a state takeover of NYC.
  • Preet Bharara resigns, noting that he has contracted a quite severe case of tendinitis and carpal tunnel syndrome signing all the political indictments.

Nicole Gelinas, Manhattan Institute
The horse carriages and their customers will be ringing into 2017.

City Council Member Mark Levine
Mayor de Blasio will reverse his previous policy position and decide to see Star Wars Force Awakens. He will like it so much that he orders a pilot program exploring NYPD use of light sabers.

Staten Island Borough President James Oddo, via his end of year message
2016 will bring a new economic development campaign to entice businesses who are being priced out of other boroughs to think of Staten Island instead of New Jersey.

Carol Kellermann, president, Citizens Budget Commission

  • The confluence of global warming, increased traffic congestion and the compelling need for improvements and enhancements to the region's transportation infrastructure will cause political leaders to coalesce around and adopt a plan for east river bridge tolling and congestion pricing.
  • The mayor and City Council leadership will truly end the "budget dance" and focus the spring budget debate only on policy issues over which they differ.
  • The mayor will propose (and have approved) spending of several hundred million dollars from his current "surplus" on extending parental leave to all municipal workers and will argue that the NYC initiative should be a model for the governor to apply to state workers and for the presidential candidates to consider and debate.

Christina Greer, professor of political science, Fordham University, and author of Black Ethnics

  • In early 2016 the Cuomo-Diaz Jr. alliance strengthens, but Diaz finds himself in the cold once de Blasio and Cuomo come to an understanding.
  • Bratton will continue being broken-windows-policy Bratton, de Blasio will continue to support him, thus weakening de Blasio's relationship and credibility with communities of color.

Jeff Smith, New School urban policy professor and author of Mr. Smith Goes to Prison
Because of a split in the Latino community, Rangel's seat will continue to be represented by an African-American - likely Keith Wright.

Doug Muzzio, political scientist, Baruch College

  • Preet indicts senators, assemblymembers, county and state officials and former officials. But not Cuomo.
  • Mike Bloomberg declares another run for City Hall. If he wins and serves full term: longest serving NYC mayor.

Jeff Foreman, director of policy, Care for the Homeless
Governor Cuomo uses his State of the State address in January to agree to and promote the NY/NY4 Supportive Housing plan, agreeing to NYC's 15,000 units and matching Mayor de Blasio with 15,000 units for NYC and another 5,000 units elsewhere in the state, but sets it as a 10-year - not a 15-year - program.

Heath Brown, professor of public policy, City University of New York, John Jay College
Political contributions from New Yorkers to various presidential candidates will top $100 million in 2016, but NY will still trail California and Texas by a long shot in total contributions.

Assemblymember Luis R. Sepulveda, 87th AD

  • Raise the age will become a reality in New York.
  • The Mayor and the Governor will break bread and work to resolve the homelessness problem in New York.
  • And, much to my chagrin, the Mets will win the World Series.

Nick Powell, opinions editor and columnist, City & State NY
Continuing their destructive feud, Cuomo (and, by extension, the Legislature) will deny de Blasio mayoral control of schools. Part of a calculated play that will end with Cuomo getting behind a rival Democrat for the New York City mayoralty in 2017.

Evan Siegfried, Republican strategist and president of Somm Consulting
Cuomo will decide to personally primary de Blasio in 2017, but launch his campaign in 2016 because it would be too much fun not to.

Alexis Grenell, Democratic political strategist
A nasty blind quote about de Blasio is attributed to a mysterious, highly placed Democratic source in the Cuomo administration.

Michael Benjamin, columnist and former Assembly member
Neither Governor Andrew Cuomo nor Mayor Bill de Blasio will be the Democratic vice-presidential nominee.

Ted Hamm, chair of journalism and new media studies, St. Joseph's College, Brooklyn
The investigation of the Eric Garner case will continue throughout most of 2016. Commissioner Bratton will continue to maintain that he's waiting for the DOJ to finish its inquiry before the department can start its six-month long disciplinary hearing. In the meantime, Officer Daniel Pantaleo will continue to collect his paycheck.

Joe Bello, Navy veteran and veterans advocate
The de Blasio administration will struggle to make "functional zero" for homeless veterans and right before his State of the City, Governor Cuomo will come through with real estate developers that will help house the remaining veterans, stealing Mayor de Blasio's thunder once again.

James Parrott, deputy director and chief economist, Fiscal Policy Institute
With tax collections growing 5% a year and local government budgets outside of NYC stretched to the breaking point, election-year legislators will respond to their constituents' calls for needed public services and convince Governor Cuomo to stretch, lift, bend or create new exemptions to his 2% state spending cap.

Mike Okhravi, CEO of DocChat
Health care across the state will continue to become more unaffordable for New Yorkers, as New York's DSRIP will not positively impact providers or patients.

Alex S. Vitale, associate professor of sociology, Brooklyn College

  • Governor Cuomo will come through with substantial new funding for CUNY to avoid a strike in the spring.
  • Gun violence will fall significantly in communities with new gun violence prevention programs that were funded in Mayor de Blasio's first budget, but have only recently been fully staffed. This will in turn contribute to the continuation of overall crime declines. However, homelessness numbers will continue to increase. The combination of dropping crime and rising disorder will again put "broken windows" policing at the center of debates around police reform.

Andrew Berman, executive director, Greenwich Village Society for Historical Preservation
In 2016, Mayor de Blasio will stop blocking sensible community rezoning plans that incentivize or require affordable housing while maintaining a reasonable scale of development in areas like University Place and Chinatown. Instead of taking the current path with the deeply unpopular 'Zoning for Quality and Affordability' and 'Mandatory Inclusionary Housing,' the Mayor will come up with individually tailored and narrowly focused changes to the city's zoning...In general the Mayor will realize that he can't truly address affordability issues and the needs of average New Yorkers while continuing to try to please the real estate developers who have so generously supported his campaign. Or, I predict 2017 won't be a very good year for the Mayor.

HAPPY NEW YEAR from Gotham Gazette!

Contact us anytime by tweeting @GothamGazette; you can email editor Ben Max at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; and don't forget to sign up for our newsletters if you haven't yet or to spread the word to friends and colleagues if you have!

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