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4 Things to Watch in the Lone Kathy Hochul-Lee Zeldin Debate


Kathy Hochul and Lee Zeldin


In what should be must-see TV for New Yorkers, Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin are set to debate tonight for the first and only time in the general election for Governor.

The debate, held at Pace University in Manhattan, will take place from 7 to 8 p.m. on Spectrum News and be moderated by anchors Errol Louis and Susan Arbetter (and broadcast online for those who don’t get Spectrum television). It comes two weeks before Election Day, November 8, with absentee balloting underway and just ahead of early voting (October 29-November 6).

The differences between the two candidates are vast, and the stakes for New Yorkers and the state are high. The debate promises to be full of attacks in both directions and, hopefully, a clear presentation of the candidates’ different stances on key issues and contrasting ideas for moving the state forward. Hochul and Zeldin will surely paint two pictures of New York: Zeldin offering a state in steep decline and deep crisis that's in need of 'saving,' and Hochul a state moving ahead in important ways and facing down big challenges thanks to her leadership.

The backdrop is such: polling shows a tightening race in a state where no Republican has won statewide since Governor George Pataki secured a third term in 2002. Democrats have those trendlines and a big voter enrollment advantage, but Hochul faces significant challenges given large crime and cost of living increases over the last two-plus years, as well as a general sense of dissatisfaction and unease among many voters amid the tumultuous covid pandemic.

While Zeldin has seized on crime and inflation, top issues of concern for voters, he must overcome the fact that his views on other key issues don’t match up with what polling shows most New Yorkers believe in as well as his close association with former President Donald Trump, who remains deeply unpopular in the state where he made his name.

Hochul, a liberal moderate from western New York and the state’s first female governor, has been in office just over a year after replacing Governor Andrew Cuomo upon his resignation amid several scandals. She’s pitching steady, no-drama leadership, protecting abortion rights in the wake of Roe, and the ongoing implementation of a variety of policies dealing with climate change, child care, public safety, and more. And she’s warning of Zeldin’s opposition to abortion rights and gun control and his votes against certifying the 2020 presidential election.

Zeldin, a conservative from Long Island, gave up his seat in Congress to try to break the New York GOP’s 20-year losing streak. Along with an almost single-minded focus on public safety, he’s pitching change of leadership, restoring some balance to a state government dominated by Democrats, tax cuts and business deregulation, the implementation of fracking to create jobs and energy production, and the expansion of charter schools. And he’s arguing that Hochul has performed poorly in her young tenure and continued a pay-to-play culture, tying her to the Cuomo administration she was part of as lieutenant governor on that and other fronts.

Hochul has leaned in to some key advantages of incumbency, particularly the ability to raise a massive sum in a short time, especially from entities with state interests, and to make major governmental funding and policy announcements in the lead up to the election. But, fairly or not, she is among the top officials voters are holding responsible for troublesome trends, from runaway inflation to a spike in subway murders. While Hochul won two statewide races with Cuomo as a ticket, she has not won on her own, and this has long been expected to be an opportune year for Republicans in New York and elsewhere.

Though it is far short of what New Yorkers deserve in terms of general election debate in the race for governor, Tuesday’s one-hour ‘exchange of ideas’ will undoubtedly be an intense affair sure to bring out some of the many differences between the candidates and how they would lead New York over the next four years. While Hochul and Zeldin surely won’t get to several important issues in that short time, the top-notch moderators will help draw out distinctions on a number of the most pressing issues facing the state and its residents.

Here are a few things to watch for during Tuesday’s debate:

1. How Hochul Handles Crime
As pandemic era spikes in crime have dominated the news and recent election cycles, Zeldin has hammered away at the issue. That is sure to continue at Tuesday night’s debate.

Hochul has been facing questions about her plans for handling crime since she took the helm of the state in August 2021, just after Eric Adams won the Democratic mayoral primary on a crime-focused campaign, and she has taken a number of steps toward increasing public safety. But, while there has been some progress this year on murders and shootings, other categories of major felonies are still increasing in New York City, and random attacks in the subways, which the governor controls, have been far too frequent and deadly.

Hochul has advanced a long list of public safety-focused policies — including significant adjustments to toughen the state’s controversial bail law, which Zeldin targets incessantly — but she has often struggled to present her crime-fighting agenda clearly and convincingly. Tuesday night will be her most high-profile opportunity to cogently explain the sum of her efforts and argue how they will soon show more results.

At the same time, it will be interesting to see if Zeldin is pressed to go deeper on his top issue than he has during a largely sound-bite-driven campaign and explain in detail how he would achieve the major turnaround in public safety that he promises.

While pointing to a number of factors, Hochul has said again as recently as Monday that the major social disruptions of the pandemic appear to have had a significant role in the crime spike. If that is indeed a key part of her diagnosis, she should explain more of how she is helping to create a holistic recovery that includes, for example, more attention on treatment for those with the most serious mental illness and opportunity for the main drivers of crime: young men from the least-resourced communities who are out of work and out of school.

Given the horrific spate of murders in the subways over the last two-plus years, Hochul has announced efforts to enhance security and outreach, but she often falls back on reminding people that policing the subways is the jurisdiction of the Mayor and NYPD, something that quickly comes across as passing the buck and Zeldin is likely to pounce on at the debate.

For his part, Zeldin decries bail reform as a top culprit of the crime spike, but may need to explain that theory beyond providing anecdotes. And, beyond the change in the bail law that he wants — more judicial discretion to hold defendants in jail pre-trial — he may need to provide more evidence of how his public safety plan differs all that much from what Hochul has been doing. (The governor has, after all, been telling anyone who will listen that she doesn’t support ‘defunding the police’ and that her administration has only added funding for law enforcement.)

It would also be interesting for both candidates to be pushed to explain why they think murders and shootings are down this year but other felonies have continued to spike in the city.

2. Zeldin’s Mismatching Views, Votes
If Hochul is well-prepared she’ll also turn attacks from Zeldin on public safety around by pointing to his opposition to virtually all gun control and gun safety measures, like his vote against reinstating an assault weapons ban, his questioning of red flag laws, and more.

Zeldin’s opposition to gun control is one of the most glaring examples of how his politics and congressional votes don’t match what polling shows most New Yorkers believe in. The other major example sure to come up at the debate is abortion rights.

Any persuadable or swing voters who could determine the outcome of this gubernatorial contest — which will of course also hinge on how well the two candidates turn out their bases — could be drawn to Zeldin on crime and the economy but wary of him on gun control, abortion, and his alliance with Trump, especially his efforts to undermine the results of the 2020 election. Right now, the polling shows that Zeldin is doing quite well with men while Hochul is dominating among women.

While Zeldin has been whacking Hochul on crime, she has been relentless on abortion and depicting Zeldin as an extremist. He has been so concerned about how his anti-abortion beliefs and record could hurt him that he has started running ads promising voters that if elected governor he “could not” and “would not” change New York’s abortion law.

As he does in the ad, Zeldin is likely on Tuesday night to repeat that pledge and argue that Hochul is trying to use abortion to change the subject from crime, inflation, and the other areas where he believes she is falling short. She is unlikely to let him make that point without repeatedly stressing that a Zeldin governorship would be a threat to reproductive rights in the state, no matter what he may say on the campaign trail. Zeldin would then be right to point out that polling shows New Yorkers are most concerned about public safety and cost of living.

3. Making New York More Affordable
But one key question for the debate may be if either candidate has any real plan for bringing down the cost of living in New York, or at least stemming its rise.

Hochul has touted her several modest tax policies that have put some money back into New Yorkers’ pockets, but mostly acknowledged that inflation is an international phenomenon. Can she make a convincing case that if elected she will ease the financial burdens of living in New York? This is where her focus on both economic development and child care may come in.

Zeldin is promising sweeping tax cuts but has offered virtually no details for what his plan would include, not even a sketch of what he would attempt to get the Legislature to agree to. That and the abortion law speaks to another major likely challenge Zeldin must confront in discussing a potential governorship: how he would work with a Democrat-dominated Legislature to find compromise and ensure that governing doesn’t grind to a halt or become filled with acrimony, delays, and chaos.

The Republican nominee may use the opportunity discuss cost of living to hit Hochul for her support of congestion pricing in New York City, but that attack could quickly be at least somewhat undercut by his lack of a plan to fill the massive hole in the MTA capital plan that would result from reversing course on congestion pricing.

Aside from more general promises to cut taxes and business regulations, Zeldin’s main talking point on cost of living and economic activity is his promise to reverse the state’s ban on fracking, which he points to as a potential boon to economically-distressed areas of the Southern Tier. It is among the many climate- and environment-related issues where Hochul and Zeldin disagree significantly.

Beyond the question of fracking, climate-related policies dovetail with economic activity on a number of other fronts where the candidates could find fertile ground for debate, including how each plans to manage a transition to renewable energy and the job opportunities involved. Hochul has taken many steps toward such a transition and has had other ideas for continuing on that path, while Zeldin has questioned some of her climate and energy policies, warning against the state moving too quickly and the potential costs to residents.

On economic development more broadly, Hochul may tout some of the deals she has reached as governor, while Zeldin may find footing in questioning their details, whether tax breaks for a new Buffalo Bills stadium or a microchip manufacturer.

Talk of jobs and the economy will also necessitate discussion of how the two candidates plan to manage the $220 billion state budget in the face of forecasted deficits, the drying up of federal pandemic aid, and other fiscal headwinds. It could also include how Hochul and Zeldin plan to maximize the massive federal infrastructure law and Inflation Reduction Act, both of which promise many billions for New York to upgrade its built environment, adapt to climate change, and create jobs.

As much as the economy and inflation have been major focus areas throughout the race for governor and other elections in New York and beyond, all too often the discussion excludes what is often people’s largest expense: housing.

Hochul has a Cuomo-era housing plan that she slightly refashioned in her lone budget but she abandoned several of her main housing policy proposals that could help address the state’s major affordable housing crisis and says it will be a focus for her next year if elected. Zeldin has no housing plan whatsoever. It could be helpful to hear both candidates offer their ideas.

4. Vision, Anyone?
Speaking of no plan, the 2022 race for New York governor has been perhaps most defined by a lack of vision from both candidates.

Hochul put together an agenda for her lone state budget and legislative session and got a lot of it passed. She is running on those accomplishments and a handful of other actions she has taken in recent months, some in reaction to two major Supreme Court rulings on abortion and gun control. In sum, Hochul is running for her first full term to further uphold and implement what she has put in motion or continued or tweaked from the Cuomo administration. While there is indeed a lot to protect, manage, and implement, she has offered virtually no platform for next year, much less the next four years.

Meanwhile, Zeldin is running on an almost shocking lack of a policy platform, offering only a sketch of plans on a few top issues and virtually nothing on topics from housing to mass transit to climate change to CUNY/SUNY and more.

There are no shortage of additional topics the two candidates may be asked to address or proactively raise, from handling another covid wave and whether to require covid vaccination among schoolchildren and others to broader education policy and how the state can spur better results for its massive amount of school spending, and more.

It’s only an hour, but hopefully Tuesday night’s debate will not only showcase the candidates’ key differences to help voters make their choice but also address some of these areas where Hochul and Zeldin have been less than forthcoming as they seek to lead the state in the years to come.

Tune in, New York.

***
by Ben Max, Gotham Gazette
     

Read more by this writer.

What the Polls Say About the New York Governor's Race


What the Polls Say About the New York Governor's Race

Kathy Hochul and Lee Zeldin


With under three weeks till Election Day, a set of recent polls in the New York governor’s race show U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, the Republican nominee, catching up to incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul. They appear to indicate a growing possibility that New York could elect its first Republican governor since George Pataki won a third and final term in 2002, despite that such an outcome seemed like a big longshot just weeks ago.

But a deeper dive into polling trends shows that Zeldin continues to face an uphill battle and will have to shore up greater support among independents and moderate Democrats to have a shot at victory in a state where Democrats outnumber the sum of Republicans and independents and independents outnumber Republicans. Hochul, buoyed especially by New York City voters and women, while competing in the suburbs, remains the favorite, but is clearly in a less comfortable position than the glide path she appeared to be on earlier in the race.

Hochul, the state's first woman to be governor, has only been in the position a little more than a year and was not particularly well known across the state before taking office. While she has had a major fundraising advantage over Zeldin, she has not been campaigning aggressively, while Zeldin has been boosted by massive outside spending by national Super PACs. Hochul has largely focused on abortion rights and criticized Zeldin's conservatism and ties to former President Trump, even as her opponent has focused on issues that polling shows matter most to New Yorkers: the economy, inflation, and crime.

Recent Polling in the Governor’s Race
A Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday (October 18) had Hochul with a 50-46% lead over Zeldin, the closest the two have come in polling in the last few months. The poll questioned 1,617 likely voters, with a 2.4% margin of error and a sample that many Democrats and some analysts questioned for under-weighting Democrats.

“In the blue state of New York, the race for governor is competitive,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow declared. “Democrats have cruised to victory in gubernatorial races since 2006, but Governor Hochul's narrow edge puts Republican Lee Zeldin well within striking distance of her.”

However, a Siena college poll released the same day gave Hochul an 11-point lead, with 52% of the vote over Zeldin’s 41%. Siena polled 707 likely voters, with a 4.9% margin of error.

The two polls had different sample sizes and constitutions: Quinnipiac’s sample included 24% Republicans, 39% Democrats, 31% independents, and 5% other parties; Siena’s was 31% Republicans, 47% Democrats, and 17% independent and other parties. The latter appeared far more in line with past New York voting trends. While Hochul’s margin has shrunk in Siena’s polling of the race, her 11-point margin was in line with its prior surveys.

On Thursday (October 20), SurveyUSA released a poll that showed Hochul with a six–point lead, 47-41% over Zeldin, down significantly from its previous August 23 poll that had Hochul leading 55-31%.

A poll released October 13 by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion hewed close to Siena’s results, with Hochul ahead by 51-41% over Zeldin, but the lead falling to 8 points among those who said they will definitely vote.

“Although Democratic candidates for governor and U.S. Senate lead in very blue New York, the race for governor still bears watching," said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute. “Republicans say they are more likely to vote, enthusiasm for Zeldin among his supporters exceeds Hochul’s, and any shift to crime in the closing weeks is likely to benefit Zeldin.”

There have been outlier polls in the race as well. A poll released October 3 by The Trafalgar Group, a right-leaning polling firm, had Hochul and Zeldin neck-and-neck, with the governor leading just 44.5% to 42.6%.

The Big Picture
Nonetheless, the latest FiveThirtyEight model, updated October 20, gives Hochul a 98 in 100 chance of winning the race, predicting a 56.7% vote share for the incumbent over 43.3% for her challenger. That model looked at eight different polls in the race, including Quinnipiac and Siena, weighted by recency, sample size, and pollster rating.

The campaigns have both attempted to put a good spin on the polling.

“Despite $8 million in outside spending from right-wing groups pushing baseless lies, Governor Hochul maintains a double-digit lead against her opponent,” said Hochul campaign spokesperson Jerrel Harvey, in an October 18 statement, seemingly referencing Hochul’s polling average. He also insisted that though Quinnipiac’s poll “substantially undercounted Democrats,” Hochul still crossed the key 50% mark. “With just three weeks until Election Day, the governor isn't taking anything for granted and will continue to contrast her strong record of results with Lee Zeldin's MAGA agenda,” he added.

Zeldin hailed the results as proof that his campaign is garnering momentum. “We've consistently been gaining massive ground on Hochul as New Yorkers witness first hand her abysmal record on the issues most important to them - crime, the economy, corruption and more,” he said in a statement. “Every day, all day, we've been ALL IN, all across the state, communicating directly with voters about the issues that matter most to them. The polls have continued to show that our message is resonating, and on Tuesday, November 8th, New York voters are going to elect a new Governor to Save Our State and restore New York to glory.”

A Narrowing Lead
Zeldin, a conservative from Long Island, has indeed grown in the polls even as support for Hochul has largely remained stable overall. In an August 2 Siena poll, the first head-to-head poll conducted by the firm ahead of the general election, Hochul led Zeldin 53-39% (among 806 likely voters, with a 3.5% margin of error), meaning she lost only one point in the latest Siena poll while Zeldin gained two.

For Zeldin, his campaign message focused on public safety and the economy seems to be resonating with voters. Voters in the Quinnipiac poll said crime (28%) and inflation (20%) were their top priorities, followed by protecting democracy (14%). However, Republicans, Democrats and independents differ wildly on the issues. Among Republicans, 42% said crime was their top priority, 31% said inflation, and 6% said protecting democracy; for Democrats, 18% said crime, 12% said inflation, and 23% said protecting democracy; among independents, 31% said crime, 21% said inflation, and 11% said protecting democracy.

Hochul’s campaign has spent months blasting Zeldin on issues like his opposition to abortion, for questioning the results of the 2020 presidential campaign – Zeldin was one of four New York Republicans in Congress to vote against certifying the results of the election on the night of January 6, 2021 – and his downplaying of the Capitol insurrection prior to that vote.

Notably, Zeldin’s unfavorable rating among voters has been rising alongside his favorable rating as voters get to know him better. In the August 2 Siena poll, 31% of voters gave him a favorable rating compared to 28% unfavorable. In the September 28 poll, he stood at 31% favorable and 33% unfavorable. In the October 18 poll, he was at 37% favorable and 41% unfavorable.

Tom Doherty, a former aide to Pataki and partner at Mercury Public Affairs, said that Zeldin’s position on January 6 likely doesn't matter to voters who care more about bread-and-butter issues that affect their daily lives. And his almost singular focus on crime has worked to his benefit.

“So wages, gas prices, crime…taxes, those are things that affect us on a daily basis,” he said in a phone interview. “And that's what this campaign has really now come down to.” 

Regional Differences
The two candidates’ strength of support varies when comparing New York City, which is home to 42% of the state’s population, with the rest of the state. The city’s weight is also large in a gubernatorial race. Case in point, former Governor Andrew Cuomo won his 2014 race by a 14-point margin by handily carrying New York City while narrowly losing in the rest of the state to Republican opponent Rob Astorino.

Hochul had a 59-37% lead in the city in the Quinnipiac poll and a 70-23% lead in the latest Siena poll. Siena and Marist polls also show that her lead has been steady since August, while Zeldin has barely gained any support in the city. For instance, the August 2 Siena poll had Hochul leading in the city with 70-21%. For Republicans, hitting at least 30% in the city is seen as key to winning statewide.

In the suburbs and upstate, Zeldin has an advantage in most cases, according to the polling. Quinnipiac showed him with 52% in the suburbs compared to Hochul’s 44%, while they were almost tied in upstate New York, where Zeldin led 50-49%. (Hochul hails from the Buffalo area and is the first “upstate governor” in decades, she likes to say, possibly giving her some help in the vast region that is typically friendly to Republicans overall.)

In Siena’s survey, Zeldin led both: 49-45% in the suburbs and 48-44% upstate. Those numbers show progress for Zeldin who was down by five points (50-45%) in the suburbs in a September 28 Siena poll and up by just one point (45-44%) in upstate New York.

“Zeldin has a small lead outside of the city, but it's tight and the question is going to come down to turnout,” said Steven Greenberg, a Siena College pollster, in a phone interview.

As Greenberg noted, in the 2018 election, the state saw 54% turnout, a high number compared to previous presidential-midterm elections. That year, New York City accounted for 34% of voters. In 2014, when statewide turnout was just 36%, the city accounted for 26% of voters, which is a major reason why Cuomo won by a higher margin in 2018 than in 2014.

“Historically, Republicans outperform their enrollment disadvantage, Democrats underperform their enrollment advantage,” he said. “New York City underperforms in turnout [compared to] upstate and, to a lesser extent, the downstate suburbs.”

Independent Voters
For any Republican to win a gubernatorial race, they have to consolidate support from independent voters with no party affiliation, who outnumber registered Republicans.

As of February 21 this year, there were 6.4 million registered Democrats, 2.8 million Republicans, and 2.9 million independents across the state.

While Zeldin has grown his support among Republicans and independents, he doesn’t have nearly the lead that may be required to overcome Hochul’s overwhelming support from Democrats. Zeldin will also have to make inroads with moderate and conservative Democrats to shore up support for his campaign.

As the Quinnipiac poll showed, Hochul leads Democratic voters 91-8% and, in Siena’s poll, 84-10%. Among independents, Zeldin led the Quinnipiac poll 57-37% and the Siena poll with a far narrower 49-40% (up from 44-42% since the August 2 Siena poll). 

“For Republicans to win statewide, whether it’s Lee Zeldin or any Republican to win statewide, they’ve got to do better than a nine-point lead with independents,” said Siena’s Greenberg. “They’ve got to be in the area of like 60%.”

“And he's got to cut into Democrats, which he's shown so far no ability to do,” he added. “I'm not sure how a Republican can win in New York if you're getting 10% or less of the Democratic vote.” 

The Gender Gap
With the Supreme Court striking down Roe v. Wade, abortion has become one of the major issues in the governor’s race. Hochul, the state’s first female governor, has intensely focused her campaign on pointing out Zeldin’s opposition to abortion while touting the steps she has taken to strengthen reproductive rights in the state. It may be among the reasons she has maintained her polling lead.

As the poll numbers show, Hochul has earned far more support from women than men. In the Quinnipiac poll, she led among women by 57-39% while Zeldin led among men with 55-41%. Similarly, in the Siena poll, Hochul led among women with 61-32% and Zeldin led among men with 49-44%.

Election Day is November 8; absentee balloting has begun; early voting is October 29-November 6.

***
by Samar Khurshid, senior reporter, Gotham Gazette
     

Read more by this writer.

Max Politics Podcast: Democrat Tom DiNapoli Seeks Another Term as NYS Comptroller


NYS Comptroller Tom DiNapoli (photo: DiNapoli campaign)


October 20, 2022 - Max Politics Podcast: Democrat Tom DiNapoli Seeks Another Term as NYS Comptroller

New York State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, the Democratic incumbent who has held the office since 2007, joined the show to discuss his reelection campaign, how he has fulfilled the responsibilities of the office, and his case for choosing him over Republican opponent Paul Rodriguez.

Listen to the conversation and let us know what you think, on Twitter @TweetBenMax. You can listen to the show through the embedded audio below or download the episode wherever you get your podcasts at Max Politics.

Read more: Max Politics Podcast: Democrat Tom DiNapoli Seeks Another Term as NYS Comptroller



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