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Max Politics Podcast: Understanding the Numbers Game of the New York Governor's Race


The New York State Capitol (photo: Darren McGee/Governor's Office)


November 3, 2022 - Max Politics Podcast: Understanding the Numbers Game in the Governor's Race

Bruce Gyory, a political scientist and strategist, joined the show to lay out key numbers in the race for Governor; break down racial, ethnic, regional, and other demographic trends; and explain paths to victory for Kathy Hochul and Lee Zeldin.

Listen to the conversation and let us know what you think, on Twitter @TweetBenMax. You can listen to the show through the embedded audio below or download the episode wherever you get your podcasts at Max Politics.

Read more: Max Politics Podcast: Understanding the Numbers Game of the New York Governor's Race

Updated New York Voter Enrollment Numbers Show Playing Field for 2022 Election


Voter registration (photo: Michael Appleton/Mayoral Photography Office)


New York State added over 400,000 voters to the rolls since the last gubernatorial election in 2018, a 3% increase in total enrollment, according to the latest data released by the State Board of Elections on Tuesday.

The 424,000 net additional voters since 2018 bring the total to 13.1 million registered voters statewide, roughly the number of those eligible to vote in this month’s major 2022 elections for Governor and other statewide positions, seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and the State Legislature, and other posts on the ballot, as well as the statewide ballot referendum on an environmental bond act. How many and which voters actually cast ballots in a state where gubernatorial turnout has struggled to hit 40% in most recent cycles will be determinative.

The balance of party enrollment changed by only fractions of a percent, with modest declines in Democratic and Republican enrollment and a slight uptick in the number of party-unaffiliated voters, also known as “blanks” or “independents.”

Democrats now make up just under half of all New York State voters, while Republicans account for 22% and party-unaffiliated voters 23%. The rest are registered with smaller parties like the Working Families Party, Conservative Party, and others. (In practice, the ranks of “independent” voters is even higher given that hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers have registered with the mostly-defunct Independence Party, apparently thinking they were registering to be party-independent.)

As of the updated numbers, there are now 6.5 million registered Democrats in New York State, 2.9 million Republicans, and 3 million party-unaffiliated voters. There are 163,000 voters registered with the Conservative Party and 51,000 with the Working Families Party. Given new political party ballot requirements that went into effect in 2020, there are only four recognized political parties in the state. The Green Party, Libertarian Party, and Independence Party were among those that lost their ballot status in the 2020 election under new thresholds.

New York City had a small net gain of 61,000 registered voters, and the city now accounts for 39% of the state’s registered voters and 43% of the state's population.

It is unclear what these small shifts in voter enrollment will mean for the race for governor between incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican U.S. Rep Lee Zeldin, other statewide races, or the numerous competitive congressional and state legislative contests.

Hochul enjoys the advantages of incumbency, significant fundraising, and being a Democrat in a heavily blue state. Zeldin, like Hochul, is benefiting from major outside spending in the race and has some wind at his back in what is expected to be a wave year for Republicans across the country. No Republican has won statewide in New York since Governor George Pataki secured a third term in 2002, but polling has shown Zeldin within striking distance, though Hochul remains the favorite.

Conventional wisdom suggests Zeldin needs a combination of a very strong showing in the conservative bastions of upstate New York and relatively low turnout in New York City, where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly seven to one. On top of that, experts say he will likely need to sweep the New York City suburbs – Suffolk, Nassau, and Westchester Counties – where the numbers of registered Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are closer together. And, of those who do come to the polls in the five boroughs, conventional wisdom is that in order to win statewide, the Republican must get at least 30% of the New York City vote.

While the enrollment increase represents a small bump since the last time a governor was on the ballot four years ago, it is a decline from a highwater mark of 13.6 million registered voters during the 2020 presidential election, in which record numbers turned out in the contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

New York City, which lost about 366,000 voters since 2020, accounted for 86% of the decline. Despite the city's major Democratic enrollment advantage, the shift spurred only a blip in the statewide party-enrollment balance with Republicans and unaffiliated voters making slight gains at Democrats' expense.

The recent decline represents a shift from the previous post-presidential election period, between the 2016 presidential race between Trump and Hillary Clinton and the 2018 gubernatorial race, in which Andrew Cuomo won a third term. In that two-year period, statewide enrollment increased and Democrats reached 50% of total registered voters while the proportion of Republicans and independent voters shrank by less than a percent each.

"There is usually a jump in enrollment in the presidential year," said Jerry Skurnik, a veteran political consultant who specializes in voter trends, in an interview with Gotham Gazette.

In 2020 that leap was likely exaggerated by opposition to Trump, Skurnik estimated, which spurred a slight boost in Democrats' voter enrollment advantage that has since shrunk without the former president's name on the ballot.

"People who are now Democrats, some of them were motivated to become Democrats as a reaction to Trump, I think, and you didn't have that after Biden won," Skurnik said. "My guess is you had an abnormal jump there as a reaction to Trump."

Since Pataki’s 2002 win, the number of registered voters in New York State has increased by more than 2 million voters, or close to 19% growth. At the time, the state had a larger share of Republican voters, who accounted for 28% of registered voters compared with Democrats' 47%. About a quarter of voters were independent or registered with third parties. Republicans are now down to 22% of the state total and have dropped below independents, and Democrats are up to about 50%.

New York City
New York City gained 61,000 voters since the 2018 gubernatorial race. That year, Democrat Andrew Cuomo won with 60% of the vote over Republican Marc Molinaro, including 80% in New York City.

Two in five registered voters now hail from New York City. That balance has fluctuated less than two percentage points over the last four years.

Democrats added just 6,000 city voters to their rolls since 2018. Republicans added just 3,000 voters in the five boroughs (a significantly larger share of total party members than Democrats added, but still a limited sum). The number of unaffiliated voters in New York City, which grew by 41,000 since 2018, now account for nearly a fifth of all registered city voters.

Since the last presidential election in 2020, New York City lost 366,000 registered voters, though the distribution of Democrats, Republicans, and independent voters was roughly unchanged.

Suffolk
Suffolk County on Long Island, a swing region and one of the state's most populous counties, gained 72,000 enrolled voters since 2018 and accounts for 8% of all registered voters in the state, or 1,109,000 voters.

The county -- Zeldin’s home district -- is slightly more Democratic and independent (party-unaffiliated) than it was in 2018, and less Republican, with shifts within two percentage points of 2018 figures. But Republican turnout there and in many other parts of the state often outruns Democratic turnout, especially in non-presidential years, and the direction independent voters go can be determinative.

In 2018, Cuomo received 50.7% of the Suffolk County vote, compared to 45.6% for Molinaro.

While seeing enrollment gains over four years, like much of the rest of the state the county on the eastern side of Long Island lost voters since the 2020 presidential election. Suffolk lost 15,000 registered voters since 2020 with the party balance going mostly unchanged.

Nassau
Nassau County, another populous swing county, on Long Island’s western end abutting Queens, added 36,000 voters since 2018, reaching 1,068,000 registered voters or 8% of the statewide total.

The number of Democrats and party-unaffiliated voters increased and the number of Republicans declined since 2018. Democrats now make up nearly 40% of registered voters in Nassau, compared to Republicans' 30% and the 26% of voters who are not registered with any party.

In 2018, Cuomo beat Molinaro in Nassau County with 55.4% of the vote.

Part of the statewide trend, Nassau lost registered voters since the 2020 presidential election. Nassau lost 21,000 voters, mostly among Democrats and Republicans with growth among unaffiliated voters.

Westchester
In Westchester County, voter enrollment increased by 22,000 registered voters from 2018 to 2022 to 665,000.

Westchester is home to roughly 5% of the state's registered voters.

Democrats and unaffiliated voters accounted for almost all of that increase, gaining 20,000 and 14,000, respectively, while Republicans lost 9,000 members. Democrats now account for 50% of registered voters in the county, which has been voting more Democratic in recent years, while independent voters make up roughly 25% and Republicans close to 20%.

In 2018, Cuomo beat Molinaro in Westchester County with 65.5% of the vote.

Since 2020, Westchester lost a net 11,000 registered voters, with the number of Republicans and Democrats decreasing and unaffiliated voters increasing.

***
by Ethan Geringer-Sameth, reporter, Gotham Gazette
     

Read more by this writer.

Arguments For and Against Question 1 on the 2022 New York Ballot, The $4.2 Billion Environmental Bond Act


Then-Lt. Gov. Hochul opens a solar farm (photo: Philip Kamrass/ New York Power Authority)


On the back of every New Yorker's ballot this fall is a question: whether or not to allow the state to borrow $4.2 billion to pay for major clean environment and climate change mitigation infrastructure.

The provision, known as the "Clean Water, Clean Air, and Green Jobs Environmental Bond Act," would authorize the state comptroller to sell bonds on behalf of the State of New York to pay for projects related to greenhouse gas emissions, flood risk, clean water, land conservation, and other climate-related matters.

After having passed the Legislature at the Governor's urging, the question is now before voters amid increasingly extreme weather events, high pollution, and lost biodiversity, and as the state makes strides toward carbon emission reduction and clean energy production goals. It also comes one year after New York voters approved a statewide referendum guaranteeing a new constitutional right to clean air and water and a healthy environment.

Governor Kathy Hochul and the Legislature passed the Environmental Bond Act as part of the state budget earlier this year and, because it involves increasing the state’s general obligation bonding, requires voter approval to go into effect.

It is the lone statewide ballot referendum this year, and voters across New York can vote “yes” or “no” when casting a ballot in the general election, which also includes races for statewide, congressional, state legislative, and judicial offices. In New York City, there are three other ballot referendum questions dealing with proposals from a racial justice commission that would alter the City Charter.

The bond act ballot measure has the support of the state Democratic Party and hundreds of local leaders, advocacy groups, and community organizations throughout the state. It faces criticism from some fiscal watchdogs and conservative groups, like the state Conservative Party, which opposes adding to state debt on matters like the environment while the economy shows signs of contracting. While there is a large, connected movement in support of the proposal, there appears to be limited organized opposition.

A Siena College poll of likely voters in mid-October found 54% supported the referendum and 26% opposed it; while 20% said they were either undecided or did not intend to vote on the measure. Of likely Democratic voters, the poll found 78% supported the referendum, while only 6% were against it (15% were undecided or not planning to weigh in). Republicans had a different perspective, with 52% against the measure, 23% in favor, and 18% undecided (7% did not plan to vote).

What’s In It
The Environmental Bond Act includes $1.5 billion for climate change mitigation. Of that sum, $500 million would go to cover the cost of electrifying the state’s school bus fleet, and at least $400 million is earmarked for renewable-energy and efficiency upgrades in state-owned buildings. The act includes a "Clean Green Schools" initiative​ energy and air quality upgrades in 1,000 public schools. Other funding in this category would go toward pollution mitigation in marginalized communities and projects to blunt the effects of climate change.

The act also contains $1.1 billion for flood risk reduction. If approved, state agencies would get another $650 million to purchase land for conservation and rehabilitation. And $650 million would go to water infrastructure and pollution control initiatives. Outside of these categories, the state would have leeway to spend an additional $300 million that hasn't been specifically earmarked.

At least 35% of the total $4.2 billion would have to go toward improvements in areas disproportionately impacted by climate change and pollution.

The act was originally proposed as a smaller $3 billion bond by Governor Andrew Cuomo in 2019, the same year lawmakers passed the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), which set state goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2030 and 85% by 2050. Seventy percent of the state's electricity must come from renewable sources by 2030 and all electricity must come from renewables by 2040. The bond act's champions in Albany have said the bill is necessary to reach those ambitious targets, part of a larger effort to meet the CLCPA that includes a “scoping plan” in development by the state’s Climate Action Council.

The state delayed moving the bond act to a voter referendum previously due to the onset of the pandemic.

Hochul, who is seeking her first full term as governor, secured the proposal in the state budget this year, expanding it to $4.2 billion in the process. ​The budget also included $400 million for an Environmental Protection Fund, $500 million for offshore wind development, and another $500 million in clean water infrastructure, among other environment-related spending.

Arguments For and Against the Environmental Bond Act
"I need to have everybody who cares about human life on this planet and lives in the State of New York to mobilize to make sure the vote gets out in support of this bond act," the governor said at a September 21 press conference on the state's efforts to solicit new large-scale renewable energy projects.

“The Environmental Bond Act exemplifies the New York State Democratic Party’s commitment to fighting climate change while providing environmental equity and economic opportunity for all New Yorkers," said New York State Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs in a statement to Gotham Gazette. "The Act is a crucial step in guaranteeing New York State can lead the nation by creating green jobs, ensuring environmental resiliency, and reducing our dependency on fossil fuels."

Democrats were dealt an unexpected blow last November when three other referenda the party backed failed after an organized campaign from Republicans and virtually no rebuttal. A spokesperson for Jacobs would not say what the party was doing or how much it has spent to promote the ballot question.

Hochul’s campaign did not return requests for comment about what it was doing to promote the referendum and to respond to the most common criticisms of the measure.

The state Republican Party did not return requests for comment for this story. GOP gubernatorial nominee Rep. Lee Zeldin has not taken a public position on the Environmental Bond Act, and his campaign did not respond to multiple Gotham Gazette inquiries seeking his stance. The last state environmental bond act was passed under the last Republican governor, George Pataki, in 1996.

There is wide agreement on the necessity of many of the spending planks in the bond act, even among fiscal conservatives who recognize the threats of climate change to the health of New York and its economy.

Supporters of the act say the investment in the environment is critical and long overdue.

"This is the first time in a generation that New Yorkers have had this opportunity to vote for environmental funding," said Jessica Ottney Mahar, director of policy and strategy at The Nature Conservancy, in an interview with Gotham Gazette. "The bond act is focused on really big issues facing all of our communities."

The Nature Conservancy is a member of a coalition known as "New Yorkers for Clean Water & Jobs," which has attracted hundreds of member organizations and raised $4.8 million to support a yes-vote campaign, of which it has spent $398,000 as of October 24, according to campaign finance filings.

"It's good debt," said Julie Tighe, president of the New York League of Conservation Voters, in a recent podcast interview with Gotham Gazette, referring to the relatively high return on investment experts say comes from funding environmental mitigation projects and those that promise both good jobs and resilient infrastructure. "This is something, we know it's not going to increase any taxes for New Yorkers.”

A report from the international engineering firm AECOM and Rebuild by Design, an environmental consultancy group created in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy, estimates the bond act would create 84,000 jobs. "There are rippling effects for spending that $4.2 billion. You might be creating economic development, you might be creating tourism," said Amy Chester, managing director of Rebuild by Design, in the same interview as Tighe. "It ends up being really a home run."

Some opponents of the referendum argue the state should not be increasing its already sizable debt at a time when interest rates have been rising.

“New Yorkers do not need another $4.2 billion in public debt, together with its resulting debt service," said state Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar in a statement.

Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, a Democrat who is also seeking reelection this year, disagreed with the argument that the state cannot afford to take on this debt. "By approving it, it doesn't mean automatically the state's going to go out and borrow $4.2 billion," he told Gotham Gazette in a recent podcast interview. "I mean, bond acts take years, if not decades to be spent out. And because New York does have a high debt burden, this will be factored in before the state goes out to borrow."

DiNapoli said that his office has not examined the bond act but that he, in his personal capacity and as a candidate, is supporting it and urging New Yorkers to vote to approve it. His Republican opponent, Paul Rodriguez, has opposed the Environmental Bond Act. In the lone debate between the two, DiNapoli asked Rodriguez for his stance on the measure, to which Rodriguez said, “I think we are not at a time right now where we should be adding more debt to the balance sheet of the state.”

New York currently has roughly $67 billion in outstanding debt backed by the state, according to the state financial plan. The state's financial plan projects both that the new debt from a potential Environmental Bond Act and the resulting debt service costs will fall below the statutory debt and debt service caps. That outlook can change over time.

"In five years' time, the State expects to be approaching its statutory debt cap, primarily due to growth in outstanding debt from areas other than the bond act," wrote Patrick Orecki, director of state studies at Citizens Budget Commission, a fiscal watchdog group, in an email to Gotham Gazette. "Still, the State will need to continue to manage debt from all sources in future years to continue to adhere to its cap." CBC has not taken a position on Question 1.

Opponents also argue new debt shouldn't be issued while money from a previous environmental bond act, passed in 1996 remains unspent.

“The Act and arguments in favor reference a number of projects that appear to warrant consideration,” Kassar continued in his statement. “However, The Conservative Party maintains that a full review and application of all funds that remains from previous state actions should be used before an additional $4.2 billion is incurred."

The last time an environmental bond referendum was on the ballot was in 1996, when a $1.75 billion bond, backed by then-Governor Pataki, came before voters, who approved it with 55% of the vote. Ninety-five percent of those funds have been spent on drinking water projects, replacing coal-based heating systems in New York City schools, pollution remediation, shuttering landfills, and other programs, according to an Albany Times Union report, with about $82 million leftover and another $100 million in authorized borrowing still on the table.

According to Ottney Mahar, that money has been tied up in negotiations between the executive and legislative branches but is still moving out the door, however slowly.

"Yes, there are bits of money left over from 1996. That money should be spent too. But that's not a reason not to move forward with this exciting program," she told Gotham Gazette.

The Empire Center for Public Policy, a conservative think tank, has argued that while the bond would help fund many worthy projects, its provisions to require prevailing wages for labor on bond act-funded projects and requirements to buy resources domestically when possible make it less cost effective and detract from its mission.

"What these provisions mean is that the money allocated doesn’t go as far as it could go – less can be accomplished than if the act exempted all projects from these financially destructive requirements," wrote James Hanley, an Empire Center fellow, in a recent blog post on its website.

Hanley also argued that some measures in the bond act were questionable, like a $500 million allocation to help achieve zero-emission school buses by 2035. That funding would be a drop in the $10 billion bucket he estimates would be needed to convert the entire fleet, a sum he wrote amounts to a mere "talking point for the Hochul administration."

Ottney Mahar agreed the funding wasn't enough but counters Hanley's ultimate conclusion.

"What's exciting about the bond act is that it's not necessarily a silver bullet alone, but it's creating an opportunity for leverage," she told Gotham Gazette. "It could be the keystone in a larger funding pie that really helps us advance solutions."

The federal Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act include significant funding for purposes similar to the current bond act, and which often require states and localities to match spending. The bond act can help New York meet those requirements, proponents regularly note.

"The leverage potential for this bond act is just enormous,” said Ottney Mahar. “The timing is perfect."

Early voting in the 2022 general election, including “prop 1” is underway, running from Saturday, October 29 through Sunday, November 6. Election Day is November 8.

***
by Ethan Geringer-Sameth, reporter, Gotham Gazette
     

Read more by this writer.



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