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35 Questions for New York Politics in 2019


Cuomo de Blasio Amazon

Cuomo & de Blasio celebrate Amazon to NY (photo: Kevin P. Coughlin/Governor's Office)


1. Will Kirsten Gillibrand and/or Michael Bloomberg run for President?

2. Will Andrew Cuomo explore a presidential run?

3. How will Chuck Schumer perform as Senate minority leader amid a new power dynamic in Washington? What impact will Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have as she officially takes office and the year progresses? What other New York representatives will make significant impact in the new Washington, especially given new powerful committee roles? Will Gateway funding from the federal government come through? Are there other major decisions related to federal funding or policy that impact New York?

4. How will Cuomo’s third term start, with major accomplishments, acrimony with legislators - both? How much of his outlined "first 100 days" agenda will he get passed in that time period?

5. What will and won’t pass in Albany before and through a budget deal at the end of March? Will the budget be on time? How will the changes in the federal tax code affect New York? Where will the areas of more easy agreement be among the legislative majorities and Cuomo? What subjects will prove most contentious? What will be left over to the legislative session after the budget?

6. Will the Reproductive Health Act sail through? The Child Victims Act (with what details)? Will marijuana be legalized and if so, what will the regulations look like? Will congestion pricing pass? The Dream Act? Which pieces of gun control will pass? What will the New York Green New Deal look like exactly? Will cash bail be abolished? Will anything be done about plastic bags? Will rent regulations, such as and especially vacancy decontrol, be reformed/eliminated/extended? Will there be hearings and real debate over single-payer health care (the New York Health Act)? Will there be any movement on granting driver’s licenses to undocumented immigrants? Will sweeping voting reforms actually be passed? Will there be strong new state government ethics and campaign finance laws? And so on...

7. Where will the annual fight over education aid land this year? What other key education battles will emerge? Will there be legislation related to teacher evaluations? Will anything happen regarding admissions to New York City’s specialized high schools? Will mayoral control of New York City schools be extended? What will happen with the charter school cap? Will mayoral control be extended to another municipality, like Rochester?

8. How will Andrea Stewart-Cousins perform as Senate Majority Leader and how will the new Senate Democratic majority run the chamber? Which new state senators will set themselves apart?

9. Will the Legislature hold tough oversight hearings? Will there be one on the MTA? Will there be hearings on sexual misconduct in government and the private sector? Will laws meant to prevent sexual misconduct passed in 2018 be strengthened in 2019?

10. How will Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie approach the new world order in Albany? How will Heastie’s relationship with Cuomo evolve? How hard left will the Assembly Democrats push?

11. Will state lawmakers take any significant action to change the outcomes of the decisions of the legislative and executive compensation commission?

12. How will Letitia James perform as Attorney General? Will her efforts to investigate President Donald Trump, his associates and enterprises, show results? Will she be the independent actor she has promised with regard to Governor Cuomo and other elected officials?

13. What next steps will Comptroller Tom DiNapoli take in his management of the state pension fund, especially with regard to fossil fuel companies and the question of divestment? How will DiNapoli approach his oversight role?

14. Who will be the next head of the MTA? Will the MTA be restructured? Can the next MTA chair, Andy Byford, Governor Cuomo and state legislators save the subways? Can they, along with Mayor de Blasio, resuscitate the buses? Will MTA labor and construction costs be reined in? How will the MTA’s capital needs be funded?

15. Can Cuomo and de Blasio work together productively on anything? Many things?

16. Will Mayor de Blasio regain some mojo? Will the mayor put forth new, exciting ideas?

17. Who will be the next Deputy Mayor for Housing and Economic Development? Will there be (m)any high-profile departures of top administration officials?

18. How will de Blasio’s programs evolve and proceed in 2019 -- will he adjust his affordable housing plan further? Will he figure out funding for the BQX by securing the federal dollars he says are needed? Can he again rethink his approach to homelessness to more quickly reduce the number of people living in shelters? Which neighborhoods will the city rezone in 2019?
Will crime continue to drop? Will the city become safer for pedestrians and bicyclists? Will the mayor do anything serious about street congestion?

19. What’s next in the process for Amazon to create a Queens campus? Will there be sustained protests? How will community outreach go? Will there be changes to the deal announced, like some planned return/investment of subsidies? Is there anything opponents, especially in the state Legislature, can do to stop or significantly alter the deal? How will the Cuomo-de Blasio alliance on Amazon evolve? Will they stay united in defense of the project or will the like-mindedness fray given de Blasio’s comments about subsidies?

20. What will be the result of the NYPD trial of Officer Daniel Pantaleo? Will anything larger change in how the NYPD deals with accountability for its officers? Will the state repeal or drastically alter the 50-a section of civil rights law that relates to making officers’ personnel records publicly available?

21. Who will run NYCHA? Will the federal government insert itself in a new, formal way? Will Mayor de Blasio appoint someone new as Chair? Will de Blasio and NYCHA move ahead aggressively with the new NYCHA 2.0 plan that de Blasio and others unveiled at the end of 2018?

22. How will Margaret Garnett perform as Department of Investigation commissioner? Will anything come of the reported investigation into whether Mayor de Blasio or City Hall officials interfered with a city investigation into the education yeshivas provide?

23. Where will things go with oversight of those yeshivas and new state guidelines to ensure they are providing substantially equivalent secular education to public schools?

24. Will anyone do anything about rampant parking placard abuse?

25. Will anything be done to help distressed taxi drivers in the city, especially with regard to medallion debt? What’s next in terms of regulating Uber/Lyft and such companies?

26. How aggressively will the city, the Department of Education and Chancellor Richard Carranza push local school districts to pass rezonings and changes in admissions policies aimed at racial integration? What will happen with de Blasio’s Renewal Schools program? How will the rollout of de Blasio’s “3-K” program proceed?

27. Who will be the next New York City Public Advocate (the election is February 26!)? Who will run in the fall election for that same position?

28. How will Speaker Corey Johnson perform as acting Public Advocate from January 1 to February 27? How else will Johnson make his mark in 2019? Will he give a State of the City speech and announce bold proposals? What will his push for city control of the subways and buses look like? Will the City Council pass bills the Mayor doesn’t agree to? Will it force the Mayor to use his first veto since taking office?

29. What will be the key battles in the next city budget negotiations? Will de Blasio and the City Council take steps to increase savings and reduce spending?

30. What will the 2019 New York City Charter Revision Commission put on the November ballot? How will those proposals fare? Will there be major overhauls to how New York City does its budgeting and/or land use? Will there be instant-runoff voting?

31. Who will be the next Queens District Attorney? Will there be competitive races in the Bronx or on Staten Island for those two DA positions?

32. Will Chirlane McCray’s political plans become clearer? Will we get any sense of what Mayor de Blasio is eyeing post-mayoralty?

33. What will be the next steps in the early 2021 mayoral campaign -- will Corey Johnson join Scott Stringer, Ruben Diaz, Jr., and Eric Adams as candidates clearly intent on running? Who else might float their names or signal their exploration? Who will take the first steps toward running for City Comptroller in 2021? Who else will emerge as candidates for the various borough president positions? (We know Jimmy Van Bramer is running for Queens BP and Robert Cornegy Jr. is running for Brooklyn BP)

34. Will there be apparent jockeying to become the next City Council Speaker?

35. What steps will Republicans in New York take to remake the party and prepare for future elections? What role will 2018 gubernatorial nominee Marc Molinaro have moving forward? Can the party develop its bench, and better line candidates up for citywide, statewide, and other key positions? Can it set the groundwork to regain the state Senate in 2020? Will the state party and party leaders rethink their approach to President Trump?

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by Ben Max, Gotham Gazette
     

Read more by this writer.

This article has been updated.

Predictions! Experts Look Ahead to 2019 in New York Politics


de Blasio new year's new york city

(photo: Edwin J. Torres/Mayor's Office)


As we usually do around this time of year, Gotham Gazette asked New York politicos to look into their crystal balls for predictions for the year ahead. Below you'll find insights from elected officials, advocates, analysts, and others who are tuned in to New York politics.

We know that 2019 will be interesting given that Democrats are taking full control of state government, there's a new New York attorney general, there will be a new New York City public advocate, the MTA and NYCHA must be rescued, and more. But what *exactly* will happen? Read below for some ideas.

Before (or after) seeing this year's predictons for 2019, revisit last year's predictions for this year, and see who did well and who didn't.

The new round of political predictions, these for 2019, is below.

Have something to add to the conversation? Tweet @GothamGazette with your prediction for 2019 in New York Politics

Predictions for 2019 in New York Politics

Eric Adams, Brooklyn Borough President
-Meatless Mondays will take the city by storm, and government agencies will take a fresh look at their food procurement policies, with both public health and climate change in mind.

Marc Molinaro, Dutchess County Executive
-Legislature will assert and restore constitutional balance between the branches of state government.
-New Senate Majority won’t care about on-time budgets.
-Governor will yearn for a Republican State Senate.
-Governor legalizes marijuana but no one will get high.
-Child Victims Act adopted before April 1.
-Mets win the World Series!

Keith Powers, New York City Council member
-The L train closure will cause transportation woes, but construction will remain on schedule in 2019. Consider me an optimist.
-The City and State will take on voting reform ahead of 2020, including early voting in the state and ranked choice voting in the city.
-City Hall hosts a Yankees World Series parade in 2019.

Carol Kellermann, president of Citizens Budget Commission
-The City Property Tax Commission makes a proposal for a more fair and transparent property tax structure and it is enacted by the NYS Legislature.
-In its upcoming contract negotiations the TWU proposes a three year wage freeze to help address the serious fiscal stress on the MTA.

Kathryn Wylde, president of Partnership for New York City
-Business and labor will unite behind Governor Cuomo’s bold plan to restructure the MTA and fund its modernization with congestion pricing and smart legislators will bite the bullet and sign on.

J.C. Polanco, professor and former Republican candidate for public advocate
-The new Senate Majority will soon experience growing pains the likes Mike Seaver wouldn't even fathom. They'll discover that New York is diverse and I am not referring to race, gender or ethnicity. If it is not less New York City-focused and more New York State focused, many of those suburban districts won during the blue wave may revert to the GOP.
-This is the year that we see Ruben Diaz Jr. and Scott Stringer begin to cement their positions as top two candidates to succeed Mayor de Blasio.
-After being elected attorney general, sky is the limit for Tish James, now clearly the one to beat for governor in 2022. She will gain national prominence as she puts into action what she has promised us all along -- a complete Mueller-style investigation into the Trump Organization, with subpoenas and indictments flying out of her office en masse. If the Democrats win the White House in 2020, no question she would be in the short list for U.S. Attorney General.

Boris Santos, chief of staff to State Senator Julia Salazar
-The State Assembly plays an integral role in thwarting legislation that they would have otherwise passed during the reign of the IDC (legislation that they'll pass the buck on: NYS Health Act and the Climate Community Protection Act). I hope the NYS Assembly proves me wrong!
-We'll bear witness to the biggest public action/rally in Albany by New York tenants only to see Governor Cuomo get rid of certain loopholes and not extend rent protections to every single tenant in our State. I hope the Governor proves me wrong!
-Mayoral control of schools gets extended but for the first time we'll get to see electeds (i.e. Senator Salazar and others) finally be creative and propose a revised governance structure to our educational system.

David Bloomfield, professor at Brooklyn College and The CUNY Graduate Center
-Replacement DOI Commissioner Margaret Garnett continues obstruction of governmental administration probe into de Blasio administration’s delay of Department of Education’s yeshiva investigation, eventually referring Mayor for criminal charges based on newly discovered emails.
-State Legislature maintains SHSAT admissions test for specialized high schools, creating new schools to expand enrollment in minority neighborhoods.
-Mayoral Control of city schools is renewed; Governor vetoes provision giving Community Education Councils new powers over charter relocations though current cap on new charters is maintained.

Jonathan Bowles, executive director of Center for an Urban Future
-The new Congress cuts a deal with President Trump that finally brings federal funding for a new rail tunnel under the Hudson River.
-Amazon comes to Long Island City after announcing that it will reject all discretionary tax incentives and make a major new investment to bolster subway service in Queens.

Bob Liff, senior vice president at George Arzt Communications
-Marijuana will be legalized by April, but the legislators will be so stoned they will lose the paperwork and fail to get it to the governor.
-The Staten Island secession movement will re-emerge, followed by a campaign to make New York City the 51st state, followed by an attempt by Brooklyn to reverse the 1898 municipal incorporation.
-Hipsters frustrated by the L-train closure will attempt to flock to Borough Park – it will not go well.
-The Mets will win the National League East.

Joanne N. Smith, Founder/CEO of Girls for Gender Equity
-In 2019, the youth of New York will continue to rise up and speak out against injustice, and they will be supported in their efforts by any politician who wishes to have a future in this state.
-We will win the fight to change policies that turn public classrooms into junior prisons and that our schools, workplaces and other institutions will begin to prioritize addressing sexual violence, thanks to the work of the 'me, too' movement and its partners.

Heath Brown, professor at John Jay College
-By summer, Beto O’Rourke, Stacey Abrams, and Andrew Gillum will all visit Manhattan to step up exploration of presidential runs in 2020. The "invisible primary" will be anything but invisible this cycle and the money race will be focused on demonstrating as much small-dollar as big-dollar fundraising potential.

Jeff Foreman, director for policy and advocacy at Care for the Homeless
-Assemblymember Andrew Hevesi’s Home Support Stability bill to increase the “shelter allowance” for people on assistance in New York for the first time in decades finally gets a vote, and if it’s enacted it’s a step to actually reducing homelessness in New York City.
-The 7 train continues it’s unreliable and way overcrowded service causing Long Island City residents (where I live) even more anxiety about Amazon and it’s huge new headquarters.
-Consensus is that the Mets will win the NL East, but of course they won’t.

Stefan Ringel, communications director for Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams
-The winner of the public advocate special election will garner less than 20 percent of the total vote.

Marissa Hoechstetter, activist
-2019 will be the year of the survivor in New York State. Legislators at all levels of state and local government must listen to firsthand testimony of those directly and indirectly harmed by sexual harassment, assault, and abuse. Whether through long overdue, and as yet unscheduled, public hearings on sexual harassment in Albany, a hearing in the New York City Council about a proposed law allowing mothers like me to remove abusive doctors’ names from our children’s birth certificates, or an honest commitment by law enforcement officials [like Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance] to act on behalf of those seeking help regardless of wealth, victim-informed laws and policies must be front and center for legislators and electeds. If not, constituents will vote them out.

Eli Valentin, professor at Monroe College
-Jumaane Williams and Melissa Mark-Viverito are the top two contenders in the public advocate special election. Mark-Viverito wins, making her the first Latina to be elected citywide.
-Recreational marijuana passes the Legislature and gets Cuomo’s stamp of approval.
-Legislators get their long-awaited pay raise, with limits (though not outright ban) on outside income.
-Nothing will be done, yet again, on much-needed election reform.

Aaron Carr, executive director of Housing Rights Initiative
-Vacancy decontrol will be repealed.
-Early voting will be enacted.
-The LLC loophole will be closed, eliminating a major liability for Governor Cuomo, who has long promised to close the LLC loophole only to become the biggest beneficiary of it since its creation.

Jonathan Ben-Menachem, policy and communications associate, Fines and Fees Justice Center
-Albany lawmakers will pass legislation repealing driver's license suspension for failure to pay fines and fees.
-Jumaane Williams will be elected New York City Public Advocate.

Have something to add to the conversation? Tweet @GothamGazette with your prediction for 2019 in New York Politics. (Review the predictions for 2018 here)

WATCH: State Senator-Elect Jessica Ramos on Heading to Albany


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State Senator-elect Jessica Ramos (photo: Gotham Gazette)


This is part of AGENDA 2019, a joint Gotham Gazette-City Limits project
Find the rest of the series here

mnn jessica ramos

Jessica Ramos won an unlikely victory in the Democratic primary to then cruise to victory in the general election and become State Senator-elect for her Queens district that includes neighborhoods like Corona and Jackson Heights. Ramos was part of a wave of challengers who unseated former members of the Senate's Independent Democratic Conference, a group of rogue Democrats who formed a power-sharing coalition with Republicans. As part of Agenda 2019 and on Manhattan Neighborhood Network, Ramos talked with hosts Ben Max and Jarrett Murphy about her top priorities and the new power landscape she's entering in Albany, where she will be part of the new Democratic majority in the Senate, her approach to Governor Andrew Cuomo, and much more. Watch:

 Gotham Gazette:

This is part of AGENDA 2019, a joint Gotham Gazette-City Limits project
Find the rest of the series here

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by Ben Max, Gotham Gazette
     

Read more by this writer.



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