
President-Elect Donald Trump
On a huge Election Day for Republicans, Donald Trump won the presidential election, the GOP kept control of both houses of Congress, and, here in New York, Republicans have increased their margin in the state Senate, the party’s last stronghold of statewide power.
With a stunning show of support across the country, Trump and his vice presidential running mate Mike Pence won more states than expected and Trump will become the 45th President of the United States. Reports came in around 2:40 a.m. that Hillary Clinton had called Trump to concede, and soon after, Trump took the stage at the New York Hilton to declare victory.
It was less than an hour after Clinton campaign chair John Podesta said that several states were “too close to call,” that the campaign was going to see every vote counted, and that it would have more to say on Wednesday.
But as more votes came in, the Associated Press called the race for Trump and reports came in of Clinton’s call. Trump called for unity and promised to be a President for all Americans. He repeated campaign promises of investment in infrastructure and jobs for Americans. He did not mention several of his other promises from the campaign trail, like building a wall on the Mexican border and getting Mexico to pay for it, nor did he use disparaging nicknames for his opponent or lash out at critics, as he had throughout the primary and general elections. Trump did not threaten key pieces of the U.S. Constitution as he had over the course of his campaign.
The President-elect spoke calmly and graciously, thanking many members of his team for their work and support, and he thanked Hillary Clinton for her service to the country. There is a great deal of uncertainty about how he will handle the transition of power and the Presidency once inaugurated on January 20, 2017. He is the first person ever elected U.S. President with no government or military experience.
The popular vote count is very close, and Clinton could very well win that but lose the Electoral College and thus the presidency. Trump pulled out a variety of swing states, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina.
Financial markets in the U.S. and around the world tumbled as Trump’s win became more apparent.
In the U.S. Senate, where Republicans held a 54-46 advantage coming into the elections, during which 34 Senate seats were being voting on, Republicans appear to have lost just one seat, in Illinois. However, as of 3 a.m., there were two races still not called. It appears likely that the Senate split will be 53-47 or 52-48. New York Senator Charles Schumer, a Democrat who won reelection easily, is on track to become Senate Minority Leader.
Republicans will also maintain control of the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats were on the ballot and the GOP came into the elections with a 247-188 advantage. Democrats appear to be picking up a handful of seats to slightly narrow that gap.
Here in New York, congressional races contributed to those House results. Despite several hotly contested races, mostly on Long Island and the Hudson Valley, the New York delegation to the House will remain the same in terms of party representation. In the most watched race in the state, if not the country, Republican John Faso defeated Democrat Zephyr Teachout to replace retiring GOP Rep. Chris Gibson.
In the race to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Steve Israel, Democrat Tom Suozzi has defeated Republican Jack Martins. Other Congressional results include wins for Republicans Lee Zeldin, Peter King, Dan Donovan, Elise Stefanik, Claudia Tenney, Thomas Reed, John Katko, and Chris Collins; and for Democrats Kathleen Rice, Gregory Meeks, Grace Meng, Nydia Velazquez, Hakeem Jeffries, Yvette Clarke, Jerrold Nadler, Carolyn Maloney, Adriano Espaillat, Joe Crowley, Jose Serrano, Eliot Engel, Sean Patrick Maloney, Paul Tonko, Louise Slaughter, and Brian Higgins.
All of the seats in the New York State Legislature were also on the ballot this year: 63 Senate seats and 150 Assembly seats. Democrats will maintain a healthy majority in the Assembly. The Senate math is more complicated, but Republicans appear to have ensured they will have at least a bare majority of 32, including Senator Simcha Felder, a Democrat who caucuses with the GOP. As of 3 a.m. there were two races too close to call, though, which will influence the final margin and could give the GOP more cushion: Republican Sen. Michael Venditto and Democratic challenger John Brooks and Republican Sen. Carl Marcellino and Democratic challenger James Gaughran are locked in tight battles, both on Long Island.
There is another key piece to the state Senate puzzle, of course: the soon-to-be seven-member Independent Democratic Conference and the GOP are likely to continue to align in a power-sharing coalition. Senate Majority Leader John Flanagan indicated in an Election Night press statement that the GOP-IDC partnership would continue in 2017. It is not immediately clear what this means for the Albany agendas laid out by Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov. Andrew Cuomo as they discussed what they hoped to see next year if Democrats took the chamber.
***
by Ben Max, Gotham Gazette
@tweetBenMax @GothamGazette
Note: this story has been updated with additional information.

(photo: Mayor's Office on Flickr)
Either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States. When we know which of the two New Yorkers will be number 45 depends on how the vote unfolds. Both candidates will be in New York City on election night: Clinton holding her event at the Javits Center, Trump holding his at the New York Hilton.
The potential historic significance of the Presidential vote should not be overlooked: Hillary Clinton could become the first woman elected President of the United States. For his part, Trump is attempting to complete an almost unfathomable outsider run through to the White House. A political novice best known as a celebrity television personality and real estate mogul, Trump defeated a variety of more traditionally qualified opponents in the Republican primary, has broken many norms of American democratic politics, and run a type of campaign never before seen in this country.
Though there has been some fluctuation, Clinton has maintained a solid lead in the polls, both nationally and in key swing states that will help determine the all-important Electoral College results. Still, this has been an election like no other, and no one is sure what will happen Tuesday.
But beyond the winner of the Presidential race, there are several key things to watch for on Election Day 2016 in New York:
1. CONGRESSIONAL CONTROL
Along with the Presidential race, there are key contests -- some in New York -- to see which party controls the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, both of which currently have Republican majorities.
There is a far slimmer margin in the Senate (four seats) and it’s basically a toss-up as to whether Democrats will swing enough seats to take a majority. If they are able to, New York Senator Charles Schumer is set to become Majority Leader. Schumer is up for re-election this year and being challenged by Republican Wendy Long. He is expected to cruise to victory.
Meanwhile, there are several House seats in New York that Republicans are trying to keep in order to maintain their healthy majority in the lower house. One of the most hotly-contested races in New York and the country is in New York’s 19th Congressional District, where Republican John Faso and Democrat Zephyr Teachout vie to replace retiring Rep. Chris Gibson, a Republican. The race, like others, but to a larger degree, has seen a huge influx of money from special interests and the national parties.
The results of the Presidential election and party control in Congress will mean a great deal for the country, and for New York City and State, especially when it comes to federal policy and funding decisions -- particularly regarding infrastructure, immigration, health care, and more.
2. STATE SENATE CONTROL
Also in New York, all the seats of the state Legislature are on the ballot: 63 Senate seats, 150 Assembly seats. Control of the state Senate, Republicans’ last statewide stronghold, is on the line.
The complicated state Senate math includes about two dozen members of each mainline party, a Democrat who caucuses with Republicans, and a caucus of breakaway Democrats that is set to grow from five to seven. That breakaway group, the Independent Democratic Conference, or IDC, will likely be again able to dictate terms of a coalition power-sharing agreement with one of the mainline conferences. The IDC has been aligned with Republicans for the past several years, but once the Election Day dust clears with a handful of swing seats decided, negotiations will again ramp up. Like with swing seats for the House, the state Senate variables on are Long Island and in the Hudson Valley, as well as a couple of upstate seats.
3. TURNOUT
While across the country more than 43 million people have already voted, according to NBC News analysis of early voting data, another 85 million or so will vote on Election Day.
In 2012, about 129 million total votes were cast in the presidential election. It was 131 million in 2008, when Barack Obama was first elected.
In New York, there were 7.1 million votes cast in the 2012 presidential election, 2.5 million of which were cast in New York City. Across the state, Obama received about 4.5 million votes to Mitt Romney’s 2.5 million, sending the state’s 29 electoral votes for Obama (270 electoral votes are required to win; Obama won 332). In New York City, Obama received about 1.95 million votes to Romney’s 400,000.
As of November 1, 2016, the state Board of Elections reports that there are 11.5 million registered active voters in New York; 4.5 million of them in New York City. There are 5.7 million active registered Democrats in the state, 2.7 million Republicans, 2.5 million unaffiliated (or "independent") voters, and about 700,000 other active registered voters affiliated with other parties.
Hillary Clinton, a Democrat like Obama, is expected to easily win the state, and overwhelmingly win New York City. How the vote will shake out across the country is less clear in some places, especially this year’s swing states like Pennsylvania, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and a few others. Most projections favor Clinton to win the popular and, more importantly, Electoral College. But, turnout is key, and it is not clear whether Clinton’s ground game and candidacy have whipped up the participation she will need in those key states, or whether Trump’s candidacy has activated enough independents, conservatives, and previously inactive voters to take him over the top.
There’s little mystery in New York, though it will be interesting to see what the margin outside New York City looks like and whether there is significant ticket-splitting by Republicans who don’t vote for Trump but do vote for their local representatives in the House or state Legislature.
4. ELECTION ADMINISTRATION & SECURITY
Problems with the New York City Board of Elections are rampant and well-documented. City Comptroller Scott Stringer is auditing the agency, which is actually governed by state law, something Mayor Bill de Blasio has been regularly lamenting over the past year, especially when the BOE improperly removed tens of thousands of Brooklyn voters from the rolls.
De Blasio said last week that he has full faith in the "integrity" of the process and results, but not in the administration or "efficiency" of the voting process across the city’s 1,205 polling places and at BOE headquarters.
The federal Justice Department announced Monday “that its Civil Rights Division plans to deploy more than 500 personnel to 67 jurisdictions in 28 states for the Nov. 8, 2016, general election.” Included among those are both Queens County and Kings County in New York City.
“Although state and local governments have primary responsibility for administering elections, the Civil Rights Division is charged with enforcing the federal voting rights laws that protect the rights of all citizens to access the ballot on Election Day,” reads the DOJ announcement.
Along with general BOE incompetence, there are also concerns about voter intimidation as this fraught, violent presidential campaign comes toward an end. And, there are concerns about the possibility of a terror or cyber attack. On Monday, de Blasio and NYPD officials, including Commissioner James O’Neill, held a press briefing to discuss security measures. The NYPD is on high alert given Election Day and the fact that both Clinton and Trump will be in Manhattan Tuesday evening.
There will be more than 5,000 NYPD officers on patrol Tuesday.
“[W]e know that the eyes of the world will be on New York City,” de Blasio said Monday, about Election Day. “We have an obligation, not only to the people of this city, but to this country to make sure that tomorrow, all through the day, and particularly tomorrow night, goes smoothly and goes well. So we have extraordinary resources in place to do that and we’ll be working very closely with our federal partners.”
As for a cyber threat, NYPD Deputy Commissioner John Miller said Monday, "Working with DoITT – the City’s IT overarching agency – as well as with the FBI and their cyber team, as well as with the NYPD and our cyber people, we have done a survey of the key systems that would affect the City’s ability to respond in emergency [inaudible], as well as systems that have to do with moving information around the election. And we’re very confident that we’re in a good position to declare those systems operating properly, free of any intrusions, and our ability to monitor those things."
5. IS THE END THE END?
Even after all of his shocking statements and maneuvers, Donald Trump sent shockwaves throughout the country, even the world, when he said at the third Presidential debate that he may not accept the results of the election. “I will look at it at the time...I’ll keep you in suspense,” Trump told moderator Chris Wallace of Fox News and all those watching, many with mouth agape.
And since, Trump has increased his claims of a “rigged” election, casting doubt about how he might react if he is not declared the winner on Tuesday evening. Trump has talked about voter fraud, which studies have shown to be virtually nonexistent, and his belief that the media has been in out to get him. If Trump does lose and even if he does decide not to openly challenge the validity of the results, no one knows what his “concession” speech might sound like.
If Trump shocks the world, it is all-but-certain that Clinton would concede without calling into question the democratic process, local vote-counters, or any other factors. And, there is of course the off chance of a repeat of the 2000 election between Al Gore and George W. Bush, where a Florida recount was started after there was no clear winner on Election Night, though polls have not indicated that the results have much chance of being that close.
***
by Ben Max, Gotham Gazette
@tweetBenMax @GothamGazette

New York City Hall
What to watch for this week in New York politics:
TUESDAY is ELECTION DAY. New Yorkers will vote for President, one U.S. Senate seat, all U.S. House seats, every seat in the state Legislature (63 Senate, 150 Assembly), and for some judgeships. Use the Gotham Gazette-WNYC Election Guide to see which races you’ll be voting on or for more information about key races.
Also, use the Gotham Gazette guide to the Presidential candidates’ issue stances to prepare to vote for the 45th President of the United States. Either Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump will be that next President. Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein are the other two candidates in our guide and likely to receive significant portions of the vote.
Along with Sunday’s New York City marathon, the weekend was a get-out-the-vote sprint ahead of Election Day. Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Mayor Bill de Blasio, and many other New York officials were out campaigning. Cuomo led a three-stop get-out-the-vote tour boosting Hillary Clinton in Buffalo, Westchester, and Long Island. After kicking off the marathon on Staten Island Sunday, de Blasio spoke at five Brooklyn churches to promote Clinton (de Blasio also made a Sunday evening appearance at the Thomas Jefferson Club 61st Annual Dinner Dance in Brooklyn). There were also several phone banks and other efforts organized by the Clinton campaign and New York Democratic elected officials over the weekend.
On Monday, de Blasio will hold a press conference and appear on NY1's Inside City Hall in his official capacity, while also campaigning for Clinton. At 10:30 a.m. in Times Square "de Blasio, Police Commissioner James P. O’Neill and Special Agent in Charge of the U.S. Secret Service David Beach will host a press conference to discuss Election Day security preparations."
The mayor will hold four get-out-the-vote rallies at city colleges Monday: 12:45 p.m. at Medgar Evers College in Brooklyn; 2 p.m. at LaGuardia Community College in Queens; 3 p.m.at Baruch College in Manhattan; and 4p.m. at Hostos Community College in the Bronx. On Tuesday, he's on a five-borough GOTV tour -- see below for those details.
As for non-election items to watch for this week: there are several political events scheduled, see our day-by-day rundown below. One highlight is the final meeting of the commission that is deciding on raises for state-level elected and appointed officials, which will take place Thursday. The commission is due to make its recommendations by Nov. 15. After that, state lawmakers can let the recommendations take effect for next year or vote down the recommendations.
Another highlight this week is that Friday is Veterans Day.
***Do you have events or topics for us to include in an upcoming Week Ahead in New York Politics?
e-mail Gotham Gazette editor Ben Max: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.***
The run of the week in detail:
Monday
At the City Council on Monday: at noon, the Committee on Contracts will meet to discuss two things: oversight of and proposed laws for reforming the VENDEX system, and a proposed law for “requiring information about city contracts and contractors to be available online for public access.”
At 11 a.m.Monday, State Senator James Sanders, Jr. will hold a press conference celebrating the enactment of the Missing Adults Law. State Assembly Member Charles Barron and Dr. Arnita Fowler from Missing Persons Advocates will also be at the press conference.
At 6 p.m. Monday in East Harlem, City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito will host a "Melissa Meet Up" at 12 Vecinas Video Exhibition. "‘Melissa Meet Ups’ are an opportunity for New Yorkers to meet with Speaker Mark-Viverito one-on-one. [Monday] the Speaker will host the exhibit “12 Vecinas” by Marisol Plard Narváez."
At 6:30 p.m. Monday, Civic Hall will host “Unequal from Birth: The Case for Universal Child Care.” This event will “examine how public investment in high-quality, early childhood programs can create a better care infrastructure for today’s families and for a stronger, safer society.” Brigid Schulte, the Director of Better Life Lab at New America and author of Overwhelmed: Work, Love, and Play When No One Has the Time; Fabienne Doucet, Associate Professor of Early Childhood Education and Program Leader, Childhood Education, New York University; Alice Proujansky, a documentary photographer covering women and labor; Nina Drange, an Economist and Research Fellow at Statistics Norway; and Humberto Cruz, a Program Officer at Right to Play will be among the participants.
Tuesday
Tuesday is Election Day. Polls in New York City open at 6 a.m. and close at 9 p.m. Use the Gotham Gazette-WNYC Election Guide here. Consult the Gotham Gazette presidential candidates policy comparisons guide here.
"Mayor Bill de Blasio to GOTV with Five-Borough-Blitz for Hillary Clinton on Election Day," according to the Clinton campaign: 7:45 a.m. in Queens; at 9:30 a.m., Mayor de Blasio casts his ballot with supporters in Park Slope at the Brooklyn Public Library, Park Slope Branch; 10:15 a.m. GOTV at entrance of Fulton Mall in Brooklyn; noon on Staten Island; 2 p.m. in Manhattan on 125th Street between Adam Clayton Powell Boulevard and Malcolm X Boulevard; and 4:30 p.m. in the Bronx, E Fordham Rd & Grand Concourse.
Wednesday
At noon Wednesday, the Association for a Better New York will have a “Post-Election Analysis Luncheon.” The moderator will be Mitchell Moss (Director, Rudin Center for Transportation), and the panelists are Congressman Hakeem Jeffries, political strategist Susan Del Percio, Jefrey Pollock of Global Strategy Group, and Robert George of the New York Daily News Editorial Board.
At 1 p.m. Wednesday, the NYC Board of Correction will hold a special meeting.
At 6:30 p.m. Wednesday, the NYC Civilian Complaint Review Board will hold a board meeting.
At 6:30 p.m. Wednesday, Civic Hall will host “Democracy Restored: Reinventing our Politics to Fix the Inequality Crisis.” This event will “evaluate the economic policies of the past eight years and what the next Administration can do to turn today’s “New Gilded Age” into a more responsive, inclusive economy.” The participants will include K. Sabeel Rahman, an Assistant Professor of Law at Brooklyn Law School, a Fellow at New America, and the author of Democracy Against Domination; Dorian Warren, a Contributor at MSNBC and a Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute; and Daniel Altschuler, the Managing Director at Make the Road Action and the Director of Civic Engagement and Research at Make the Road New York.
Thursday
Thursday at 9 a.m., the New York City Industrial Development Agency (NYCIDA) will hold a Board of Directors Meeting.
Starting at 11:30 a.m., "Parents, teachers and community members will walk to Governor Cuomo’s regional office in New York City Thursday to deliver a package of invoices for education funding that advocates say is 10 years overdue to local schools. The delivery of invoices marks 30 days since the “#EdWalk for CFE” arrived in Albany after a 150-mile trek from New York City to demand that Governor Cuomo and state legislators commit to fully funding public schools according to the Campaign for Fiscal Equity (CFE) lawsuit. This year is the 10th anniversary of the final court ruling on the Campaign for Fiscal Equity lawsuit, but schools continue to be funded below the CFE requirements. To comply with the CFE ruling, New York State owes an additional $3.9 billion in educational funding for school districts statewide."
On Thursday at 1 p.m., the New York State Commission on Legislative, Judicial, & Executive Compensation will meet.
On Thursday at 5 p.m., New York Law School will hold “The Presidential Election and the Muslim Community: Charting a Path Forward.” The panelists include Nisha Agarwal, Commissioner of the Mayor’s Office of Immigrant Affairs; Debbie Almontaser of the Muslim Community Network; and Sadiq Reza, professor at New York Law School.
On Thursday at 6 p.m., State Senator Daniel Squadron will hold a Community Town Hall. This event promises to be a “follow up to Senator Squadron’s Community Convention, at which many neighborhood issues were discussed -- including parks, healthcare, development, quality of life, and buses and subways.”
On Thursday at 7 p.m. the Brooklyn Historical Society will hold “The Darker Side of Reproductive History.” This panel will look at, among other things, “birth control experiments gone wrong and forced sterilizations.” The panelists will include Linda Gordon, NYU Professor of History, and author of Woman’s Body, Woman’s Right: The History of Birth Control in America; Adam Cohen, author of Imbeciles: The Supreme Court, American Eugenics, and the Sterilization of Carrie Buck; Iris Lopez, professor and author of Matters of Choice: Puerto Rican Women's Struggle for Reproductive Freedom; and Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas, Executive Director of the National Latina Institute for Reproductive Health. Irin Carmon, an MSNBC reporter and co-author of Notorious RBG: The Life and Times of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, will be the moderator.
Friday and the weekend
Friday is Veterans Day. Leading up to and on Friday there will be a variety of Veterans Day events this week.
***
Have events or topics for us to include in an upcoming Week Ahead in New York Politics? E-mail Gotham Gazette executive editor Ben Max any time: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. (please use "For Week Ahead" as email subject).
***
by Brendan Birth and Ben Max
@GothamGazette