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What's the State Role in NYCHA Oversight?


torres nycha monitor idc presser

CM Torres and the call for a state NYCHA monitor (photo: @RitchieTorres)


As Mayor Bill de Blasio and leaders of the embattled New York City Housing Authority continue to respond to fallout from revelations that NYCHA had failed for years to comply with federal and local laws around lead paint inspections, some elected officials are renewing calls for the state take a more active role in the city’s massive public housing system.

NYCHA, which has for decades has been plagued by lapses in safety protocols, sometimes with tragic results, includes 175,000 housing units home to well over the official tally of 400,000 New Yorkers. A report by the city’s Department of Investigation (DOI), released earlier this month, indicates that NYCHA Chair and CEO Shola Olatoye knew of deficiencies in lead inspections in early 2016 but signed off on paperwork submitted to the federal government certifying that all the regulations had been met. Olatoye explained that soon after she had become aware of the gap, which began under the prior administration, she alerted NYCHA’s federal regulators and jumpstarted the lead inspections.

DOI called for the appointment of a “third-party monitor” to ensure compliance with lead and safety rules as well as to perform regular safety checks on NYCHA units.

De Blasio and Olatoye have resisted both the calls for more state oversight and the recommendation for the outside monitor, instead implementing their own set of reforms, including new protocols and a new internal compliance unit, while multiple top NYCHA officials were either forced out or demoted. Though he also sat on the revelations for over a year, de Blasio argued that NYCHA was already addressing the lead inspection shortfalls and admitted that he should have made the issue public sooner. He has strongly pushed back against calls for Olatoye’s removal.

As a public authority, the 84-year-old agency -- the oldest and largest such low- and middle-income housing provider in the country -- is technically under the purview of the state, though state law grants the mayor control over appointment of board members and leadership.

But in the wake of the lead-inspection revelations, several lawmakers want an increased state role in NYCHA oversight. Members of the state Senate Independent Democratic Conference, led by Senator Jeff Klein of the Bronx, held a November 20 press conference to push for a state monitor, as outlined in legislation introduced by Klein earlier this year, which would create an Office of the Independent Monitor within the Department of Homes and Community Renewal, to be appointed by the governor with the advice and consent of the Senate. Klein and other members of the IDC were also joined by City Council Member Ritchie Torres, chair of the Council’s public housing committee, and other elected officials.

The state played a larger role in financing and governing the agency in the years immediately after World War II, when there was a large state-wide public housing program, but that contribution shrunk over time to near non-existence, and NYCHA relies almost entirely on the federal housing agency, HUD (the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development), for subsidizing its operating and capital needs.

While NYCHA has accumulated the $17 billion in capital needs to get into a state of good repair, the authority has also struggled to remain in the black in its yearly operating budget, which has actually been stabilized under de Blasio and Olatoye, even without state money.

State-provided operating subsidies to NYCHA were ended by Governor George Pataki in 1998, leaving the housing agency with a $60 million annual operating shortfall, according to NYCHA records. To address its growing annual operating deficit, which was as high as $235 million in 2006, NYCHA transferred many federal subsidies meant for capital improvements into operations, which ensured the system would fall into further disrepair. Since 2006, NYCHA’s personnel has been reduced from 15,000 to 11,000, with many of the jobs lost white collar positions that played a role in compliance. New York City followed the State’s example and by 2004 it had essentially stopped subsidizing NYCHA operations, further crippling the agency, according to according to urban historian and professor Dr. Nicholas Dagen Bloom, co-editor of the anthology Affordable Housing in New York.

“In the past 20 years, there’s a been a federal reduction, but compared to the state and city, HUD is really the only game in town,” said Bloom. “The city and state are almost entirely dependent on HUD for the real or long term oversight. So, there’s kind of a bureaucratic insanity where there is less money, but [NYCHA] is supposed to maintain the same standards.”

NYCHA has been stabilized somewhat under de Blasio, with the 2015 release of NextGeneration NYCHA, an ambitious, 10-year strategic plan to get the authority back on track. Thanks to an increase in city investment, the operating budget is no longer running a deficit and plans are moving ahead to bring in more revenue, but NYCHA has not made much headway in addressing the billions of dollars worth of unmet capital needs. As part of the plan, the de Blasio administration relieved NYCHA of more than $100 million in annual bills toward police services and property taxes. In 2015 and 2016, for the first time in years, the authority achieved an operating surplus, one just under HUD’s recommended three-month cushion. However, the most recent $35 million federal cut, announced in March, is expected to plummet NYCHA’s operating budget back into the red.

Over the past few years, NYCHA has benefited from some capital investment from the city address some infrastructural deficiencies. Since 2015 the city has infused the authority with $1.3 billion to fix 952 roofs, benefiting 175,478 NYCHA residents, as well as $555 million to repair 409 facades, according to a spokesperson for the de Blasio administration. Although the State has historically provided capital funds for NYCHA developments, in 2001, state contributions were reduced from $15 million to $6.4 million a year and dwindled completely by 2007, with the exception of a few one-time investments like $100 million for NYCHA (managed by Dorm Authority for the State of New York) for playgrounds and security cameras in 2015, and $200 million for boilers and elevators in 2017, according to city records.

However, infrastructure problems and public health crises persist throughout NYCHA, and since 2015, the IDC and Council Member Torres have been calling for the state to take more fiscal and regulatory responsibility for the city’s public housing system, a recommendation Governor Andrew Cuomo has in the past shrugged off, incorrectly characterizing the housing authority a “federal agency” and wrongly declaring state contributions as “unprecedented.”

Senator Klein’s state monitor bill unanimously passed the Senate on the final day of the 2017 legislative session, but has not been considered by the Assembly. Spokespersons for Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie and the Assembly’s housing committee chair, Assemblymember Steven Cymbrowitz, did not respond to requests for comment on the bill.

Joining the calls for a state monitor amid the lead inspection fallout is not only Torres, but also Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr., who in a letter to Governor Cuomo, Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, and Attorney General Eric Schneiderman said the federal government has demonstrated itself to be an unreliable partner to the city.

“Only the state has the ability to appoint a credible monitor to examine NYCHA at this time,” Diaz Jr. said in a statement. “More than 400,000 New Yorkers call our city’s public housing developments their home. The families who call our city’s public housing developments home deserve to be treated with dignity and respect. It is now plainly clear that a state-appointed monitor is the only way to make that happen.”

In response to the latest calls for significantly more state involvement in NYCHA, Cuomo spokesperson Abbey Fashouer said in a statement, “We have continuously expressed concerns with NYCHA’s operational failures and these latest allegations -- and potential legal violations -- that the agency knowingly committed by exposing New Yorkers to lead paint are particularly disturbing. We have received the letter, and we are reviewing it with our fellow state partners, the Attorney General and the State Comptroller.”

De Blasio, at a press conference last week, appeared resistant to the idea of increased state involvement, emphasizing that the pertinent authority over the city’s public housing system is HUD and stressing that a federal investigation by the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York already identified NYCHA’s lead screening lapses in 2016 and that the city was taking steps to remedy it.

“The pertinent authority here is the federal government,” said de Blasio at a press conference on November 20. “I think it’s important that agencies respect their fellow agencies. So, this is the top level of government that is the funder of a lot of NYCHA’s operations and has legal oversight responsibility. And for two years, they’ve been involved in this issue. I think that should be respected.”

While de Blasio acknowledged that the federal investigation into NYCHA is ongoing and that the city is continuing to cooperate, he said it could lead to a federal monitor of the housing authority, similar to those in place at the NYPD and Department of Correction. Instead of a state or independent monitor at this time, NYCHA is creating an Executive Compliance Department, with Chief Compliance Officer Edna Wells Handy at its head. Handy has been counsel to the NYPD commissioner. The mayor has also rebuffed calls from Public Advocate Tish James to fire Olatoye, defending his public housing chief, saying that she has been instrumental in turning the authority around.

“I’m convinced that the leadership we have now is part of the solution to the problems that plague NYCHA,” de Blasio said at the November 20 press conference. De Blasio also referenced the personnel changes beneath Olatoye, though those were only made once the lead inspection scandal had become public through the Department of Investigation, not soon after Olatoye and de Blasio first learned of the inspection lapses.

Critics say steps taken by the de Blasio administration are insufficient. "Calling these changes ‘sweeping’ hardly makes them so. ‎An internal compliance department is no substitute for an independent monitor. NYCHA's failure to recognize the need for third-party accountability will only deepen the damage to its credibility," said Council Member Torres.

A spokesperson for the DOI, reiterated its call for the external NYCHA monitor to be housed at the independent city agency, in a statement to Gotham Gazette. The spokesperson noted that DOI already has a “robust integrity monitor program” with 18 active monitorships “overseeing an array of integrity issues that include construction, city-funded not for profits, and information technology.”

Professor Bloom said he is not surprised there is little enthusiasm from Cuomo’s office for the state to get involved.

“The underlying problem is NYCHA residents don’t vote at very high levels -- New York City residents don’t vote -- and upstate, public housing is not a priority. It’s a very small program upstate. [It’s a question of whether] there is the political will,” said Bloom.

According to Bloom, the calls for external monitors may be beside the point. While the creation of additional compliance entities may produce more reports (and bureaucracy), without a significant investment of funds to address the lead problem at its root cause, these steps are unlikely to improve quality of life for NYCHA residents. Currently federal regulations require that NYCHA inspect all 55,000 apartments with presumed lead paint, and NYCHA must prioritize apartments with children under six-years-old listed as residents. The city insists that the number of affected apartments is low; that between 2010 and 2016 there were only 17 documented cases requiring lead abatement at 18 NYCHA apartments where children with elevated blood lead levels live. Four of these cases occurring after 2014, according to de Blasio’s office, but a WNYC report suggests that these numbers may be skewed, since the city defines "elevated lead levels" at 10 micrograms per deciliter -- double the U.S Center for Disease Control standard since 2012.

“If you really want to make NYCHA lead-free -- and the case could be made that there should be no lead in any of these apartments -- well, that will require a much more extensive cleaning that will cost a lot of money,” Bloom said. A state-run and financed “lead abatement program” for NYCHA, for example, would likely be welcomed by the housing authority, Bloom added.

Meanwhile, Mayor de Blasio said that two rounds of inspections and amelioration were already underway has vowed that NYCHA would soon been in compliance. On Monday, The Daily News reported that NYCHA residents had been notified that inspectors would force entry into units, removing and replacing door locks if tenants were not home during a designated time window.

“We will be in compliance with Local Law One next month and then we intend to stay in compliance with Local Law One every year thereafter,” de Blasio said at the November 20 press conference. “And that is important because what that means essentially is as soon as inspections and amelioration ends for one year, you start essentially immediately thereafter for the next year. So there will be a continuous inspection cycle from this point on. Any resources that NYCHA needs for that effort will be provided.”

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by Rachel Silberstein, State government reporter, Gotham Gazette
     

Read more by this writer.

The Week Ahead in New York Politics, November 27


New York City Hall

New York City Hall


What to watch for this week in New York politics:

This post-Thanksgiving week promises to be a busy one. Mayor de Blasio will likely be active after two weeks of limited public appearances (he was away on a family vacation in Connecticut, then it was Thanksgiving week). The City Council has another busy week with a variety of hearings and a full Council Stated meeting on Thursday, at which the Council passes bills that have moved through committee and sees the introduction of new bills (since we're in the final weeks of the four-year session, there are more bills being passed than introduced at this point). Two pieces of legislations especially worth watching: the police reform Right to Know Act and changes to the commercial rent tax, which affects businesses south of 96th Street in Manhattan. The Council's end-of-term flurry of oversight hearings continues this week.

Also continuing this week is the race to become the next Speaker of the City Council. The eight men running for the position, which will be officially voted on during the first Stated meeting of January's new Council class, have been engaging in behind-the-scenes politicking and more public arguments for their candidacies. The candidates continue to participate in forums, which are largely their opportunities to influence influencers like advocacy groups and the media narrative of the race. Overall, though, the many public forums the candidates have been and continue participating in will have little impact on who wins this race, which is decided by Council members, party bosses, labor unions, and other influential figures, like members of Congress and Mayor de Blasio, who will reportedly continue to meet with the speaker candidates this week.

De Blasio is holding a town hall in Queens on Thursday night. The mayor has four public events Monday -- see details below.

As we hit December on Friday, we're just over a month from when Governor Cuomo will begin to outline his 2018 agenda. In January, the governor, who says he will pursue a third term through next year's election, will give his State of the State policy agenda and also lay out his executive budget. Cuomo has already indicated that a congestion pricing plan will be part of the picture, but little else is known. As December and January approach, watch for new information about Cuomo's 2018. This week, we know that Cuomo is organizing and headlining a Saturday rally to protest President Trump's agenda set for New York City on Saturday, when Trump is due in the city for some fundraising. Cuomo is appearing more and more to be testing the waters for a potential presidential run. While the next presidential election is in 2020, candidates will really start running well before. Cuomo may prioritize his reelection bid first, then kick his presidential exploration into full gear in early 2019.

As always, there's a great deal happening this week - see our day-by-day rundown below.

***Do you have events or topics for us to include in an upcoming Week Ahead in New York Politics?
e-mail Gotham Gazette editor Ben Max: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.***

The run of the week in detail:

Monday
On Monday, Mayor de Blasio has several public events: at noon at City Hall, de Blasio "will hold a public hearing on 16 pieces of legislation" that will be signed into law at a later date. At 4:30 p.m., "the Mayor will attend the grand opening ceremony for Gino Sorbillo’s Pizzeria." At 6 p.m. at City Hall, "the Mayor, Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito and members of the City Council will host a Puerto Rican Heritage celebration." And at 7:30 p.m. at Elsewhere in Brooklyn, "the Mayor will sign legislation to repeal the Cabaret Law."

At 11 a.m. Monday, Comptroller Scott Stringer is holding a press conference at Worth Square in Manhattan.

At the City Council on Monday:
--The Committees on Transportation and Sanitation & Solid Waste Management will meet jointly at 10 a.m. for an oversight hearing regarding “private sanitation fleet safety.”
--The Committees on Civil Service & Labor and Small Business will meet jointly at 10 a.m. for an oversight hearing regarding an “update on career pathways/workforce development systems.”
--The Committee on Recovery and Resiliency will meet at 1 p.m. for an oversight hearing regarding an “update on assisting vulnerable populations in emergency evacuations.”

On Monday evening at 6:30 p.m., "AARP New York, NBC 4 New York, Telemundo47 and NBC Latino will host a debate for candidates in the running for New York City Council Speaker. Candidates will debate their priorities for the Council, including issues important to New Yorkers 50-plus such as affordable housing, transportation, support for caregivers, and livability. Local AARP members will be available for comments on the debate." The event will take place at the 92nd Street Y and will be livestreamed by TelemundoTelemundo and by NBC New York.

On Monday "at 6:30 PM, Brooklyn Borough President Eric L. Adams will lead a community vigil in memory of 14-year-old Edwin Ajacalon, a Guatemalan immigrant who worked as a deliveryman for a local restaurant; he was killed Saturday afternoon in Sunset Park when a speeding car slammed into his bicycle and dragged him a half a block. At the site of the crash, Borough President Adams will join Ajacolon's uncle, fellow New Yorkers who have lost loved ones to traffic violence, and neighborhood advocates, including Council Member Carlos Menchaca and Transportation Alternatives, in mourning his loss and demanding action for safer streets, including long-demanded speed cameras."

Tuesday
At the City Council on Tuesday:
--The Committee on Economic Development will meet at 10 a.m. for an oversight hearing regarding “NYC’s sagging air cargo industry.”
--The Committees on Higher Education and Technology will meet jointly at 10 a.m. for an oversight hearing regarding “CUNY tech incubators.”
--The Committees on Health and Immigration will meet jointly at 10 a.m. for an oversight hearing regarding “immigrant access to healthcare.”
--The Committee on Governmental Operations will meet at 1 p.m. for an oversight hearing regarding “DCAS’s energy management and energy efficiency initiatives.”
--The Committee on Juvenile Justice will meet at 1 p.m. for an oversight hearing regarding “trauma-informed services in the juvenile justice system.”

The Joint Commission on Public Ethics will meet on Tuesday in Albany.

At 10 a.m. Tuesday, the Assembly Standing Committee on Election Law and the Subcommittee on Election Day Operations and Voter Disenfranchisement will hold a public hearing at 250 Broadway in Manhattan to “examine the condition of the State’s election infrastructure and take testimony with regard to protecting the integrity of election systems against cyber-infiltration or attack.”

At 10 a.m. Tuesday, Still We Rise NYC will host “Healing Of Our City: A Faith & Community Conversation with NYPD” at the New Jerusalem Worship Center in Jamaica, Queens. NYPD Commissioner James O’Neill and Deputy Commissioner Benjamin Tucker will be joined by fellow officers and faith leaders to discuss several hot button issues related to policing in New York City.

At 11 a.m. Tuesday, the Assembly Standing Committee on Agriculture will hold an oversight hearing in Albany regarding “the SFY 2017-2018 State Budget for the New York State Department of Agriculture and Markets.”

At 1:30 p.m. Tuesday, the New York City Board of Elections will hold a commissioners meeting.

At 5:45 p.m. Tuesday, Public Advocate Letitia James will visit the Queens Adult Learning Center.

At 6 p.m. Tuesday, the Panel for Educational Policy will hold a public meeting at Long Island City High School in Queens.

At 6 pm. Tuesday, City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito will speak at Nicholasa Mohr exhibition opening at Aguilar Library.

There is a City Council Speaker candidate forum on Tuesday night focused on arts and culture, moderated by Juan Manuel Benitez of NY1 Noticias, beginning at 6:30 p.m. at SVA Theatre. The forum is hosted by New Yorkers for Culture and Arts in partnership with "112 community engagement partners."

Mayor de Blasio will attend two closed press events on Tuesday evening: "the NYC League of Conservation Voters Fall Event and "Aidala, Bertuna & Kamins P.C Mill Brook Realty Group LLC’s Holiday Party."

Wednesday
At the City Council on Wednesday:
--The Committee on Aging will meet at 10 a.m. for an oversight hearing regarding “supporting unpaid caregivers.”
--The Committee on Contracts will meet at 1 p.m. for an oversight hearing regarding “examining existing supports and needs of underrepresented business owners in city procurement.”

On Wednesday morning, Center for an Urban Future will host "a high-level symposium...The Role of the Tech Sector in Sparking Middle Class Job Creation in New York City. The forum, to be held at Grand Central Tech, will host a distinguished panel of experts that will discuss the increasingly important role of the tech sector in stimulating middle class jobs in New York City." Panelists will include James Patchett, President & CEO, NYC Economic Development Corporation; Julie Samuels, Executive Director, Tech:NYC; Patrick Deem, Co-Founder & CFO, Voodoo Manufacturing; Rashid Ferrod Davis, Founding Principal, Pathways in Technology Early College High School (P-TECH); Alex Lirtsman, Co-Founder, Ready Set Rocket; and moderator Jonathan Bowles, Executive Director, Center for an Urban Future.

At 9:30 a.m. Wednesday, Public Advocate Letitia James will hold a public hearing “focused on climate change, its potential impacts, and strategies and solutions for New York City.” The hearing will take place at Borough of Manhattan Community College in Tribeca.

At 10 a.m. Wednesday, the City Planning Commission will hold a public meeting at Spector Hall.

On Wednesday at 7 p.m., City Council Speaker candidates will participate in a forum hosted by Make the Road New York, El Diario, and Univision. The forum will be in Spanish, with English translation, and will take place at Make the Road in Jackson Heights, Queens.

Thursday
The full City Council will hold a stated meeting at 1:30 p.m. Wednesday, prefaced by a press conference led by Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito.

Also at the City Council on Thursday: the Committee on Finance will meet at 10 a.m. to discuss a proposed law relating to “requiring the department of finance to provide new homeowners with information about real property taxes and exemptions,” as well as a resolution “approving the new designation and changes in the designation of certain organizations to receive funding in the Expense Budget.”

At 3 p.m. Thursday, advocates will rally at Hunter College to demand free tuition at CUNY and a minimum salary per course of $7,000 for adjunct professors. The rally will take place on the day that PSC-CUNY’s contract expires.

At 5:30 p.m. Thursday, Civic Hall and LMHQ will host the “Women’s Unconference,” discussing “innovations in women’s advocacy and female empowerment.”

At 6:30 p.m. Thursday, the New York City Bar Association, the Historical Society of the New York Courts, and the New York State Archives will host “Documenting Our Past: Great Documents of New York Legal History,” discussing “early documents of state importance that provide a window into New York State legal foundations.”

At 6:30 p.m. Thursday, advocates will rally in Washington Square Park to demand that the (now former) police officers accused of raping a woman in custody face justice.

At 7 p.m. Thursday, Mayor de Blasio will hold a town hall meeting at MS 217 in Briarwood, Queens. City Council Member Rory Lancman will host and emcee, and the event will be held in collaboration with Queens Borough President Melinda Katz, State Senator Leroy Comrie, and Assemblymembers Vivian Cook, David Weprin, Nily Rozic, Alicia Hyndman, and Daniel Rosenthal.

At 7 p.m. Thursday there will be a City Council speaker candidate forum in Brooklyn at St. Paul Community Baptist Church, with Rev. David K. Brawley, co-chair of Metro IAF/EBC, as moderator. Public Advocate Letitia James is co-hosting. Council Members Ritchie Torres and Robert Cornegy are confirmed.

Friday and the weekend
At 10 a.m. Friday, the Assembly Standing Committee on Judiciary will hold a public hearing at 250 Broadway in Manhattan regarding “Implementation of the State Budget on the Judiciary.”

On Friday night the City Council Speaker candidates will debate live on NY1 from 7 to 8:30 p.m.

President Donald Trump will be in New York City on Saturday for a fundraiser. Governor Cuomo will be at the Midtown Hilton at 11 a.m. to host an anti-Trump rally.

***
Have events or topics for us to include in an upcoming Week Ahead in New York Politics? E-mail Gotham Gazette executive editor Ben Max any time: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. (please use "For Week Ahead" as email subject).

***
by Ben Brachfeld and Ben Max
@GothamGazette

Possible GOP Gubernatorial Candidates Weigh Chances to Unseat Cuomo


gop governor candidates

L-R: Harry Wilson, John DeFrancisco, Marc Molinaro, Brian Kolb


The Republican pool of candidates exploring an attempt to unseat Governor Andrew Cuomo in the 2018 gubernatorial race appears to be shrinking. Now just four Republicans say they are exploring a run -- down from at least seven prior to this past Election Day -- with the potential candidates vowing to announce their decisions by Christmas.

Targeting the well-funded Democratic governor seeking his third term would typically be a bold but calculated bet. On one hand, Cuomo has significant vulnerabilities going into 2018, but the outcome of Election Day 2017, which many are interpreting as a “blue wave” of Democratic wins in reaction to the presidency of Donald Trump, may give some Republicans more pause.

A GOP gubernatorial win in New York, which has not happened since George Pataki won a third term in 2002, would require sizeable success in the New York City suburbs, but after voters handed GOP county executive seats in Westchester and Nassau to Democrats earlier this month, potential 2018 candidates must consider how the anti-Trump sentiment will play out next year.

"What looked to be a very deep pool suddenly got ankle-deep shallow, with the water still going down. That's what a mini-tsunami election will do to anyone rationally thinking of running against a political tide,” said William O’Reilly, a Republican strategist who runs the November Team. That wave seems to have both unseated and knocked from 2018 contention Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, an O’Reilly client who lost to Cuomo in the 2014 gubernatorial race.

Harry Wilson, a hedge fund manager from Westchester, is seen as a clear front-runner to become the GOP nominee next year, as he may be capable of coming closest to Cuomo’s immense fundraising capabilities and he performed well in his 2010 bid for state comptroller. The other three most-discussed potential GOP gubernatorial candidates are all current officeholders -- Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb, and state Senator John DeFrancisco -- who would begin a race with a solid local base of support and some name recognition.

“I would hope that Senator DeFrancisco or County Executive Molinaro will make the leap,” said O’Reilly, “but in the end the 2018 Republican candidate for governor may have to come down to a recruitment effort.”

For his part, Cuomo is heading toward his reelection year facing criticism from the right and the left for New York City’s subway crisis. Among other issues, he is also maligned for high property taxes around the state, not to mention corruption trials about to begin involving his economic development initiatives, which involve some of his closest associates. Cuomo is not especially popular outside of New York City, where his favorability remains fairly high, and the second-term Democrat may very well face a tough primary of his own, as he did in 2014, given that many in the left flank of his party see him as too centrist.

The New York State Republican Party has calculated that ideally it should avoid a primary to have a shot at victory -- assuming Cuomo is in the running -- so the four potential candidates are now courting GOP leadership for the nod. All four men say they are on good terms with each other and each is taking his own path to testing the waters. Molinaro and Kolb have discussed running on a ticket together for governor and lieutenant governor, but both say that no such decision has been made (and it is not clear which would run for what).

Publically, the party leadership is shrugging off the losses from Election Day, pointing to other victories like that of Republican Steve McLaughlin, an Assembly member elected county executive of Rensselaer. State Republican Party Chair Ed Cox, on Fred Dicker’s Focus on Albany radio show, chalked up Astorino’s loss to “third term-itis,” the same challenge now facing Cuomo, whereby it is notoriously difficult to win third terms in politics.

Regarding the election of Democrat Laura Curran to the historically-Republican Nassau county executive seat, Cox pointed to a Democratic voter base energized by opposition to the constitutional convention ballot question. Former County Executive Ed Mangano’s indictment last year on federal corruption charges also tainted the Republican Party and turned many independents, who make up a large segment of Nassau’s electorate, against GOP contender Jack Martins, he said.

Wilson, who did well in his 2010 run for state comptroller, losing to Democrat Tom DiNapoli 49.7 percent to 47.2 percent and has had private sector success, may be willing to put in $10 million or more of his own money. Molinaro, Kolb, and DeFrancisco would each be able to kick off fundraising from their local supporters.

With a governor that has $25 million and counting in the bank, and was recently in California courting major donors, Republican candidates might want to get an early start in fundraising, but that would require more commitment to exploring or declaring a run (on the Democratic side, for example, former state Senator Terry Gibson, considering a primary challenge to Cuomo, recently opened a campaign account so he could start raising money).

Prior to his run for comptroller, Wilson flexed his business acumen and negotiating chops when he helped President Barack Obama execute the auto industry bailout early in Obama’s first term. One “prominent Republican county chairman” told The Daily News that “If Harry Wilson says he wants to be the nominee, he’ll be the nominee.” Wilson’s bipartisanship could prove helpful in a general election against Cuomo, as could his New York City-focused criticisms of the governor.

On Dicker’s show, on November 15, Wilson suggested that his current priority is raising his four daughters, two of whom are teenagers, and said he would decide over the holidays whether the timing was right for his family.

“In four years from now two of our girls will be out of the house. In eight years from now, all our girls will be out of the house and I’ll still be a young man,” said Wilson, referring to the possibility of holding off this year and running in the future. “It’s a question of that tradeoff of where I can be most useful, most effective, and balancing my commitment to my family and helping others.”

Meanwhile, Molinaro, a suburban county executive who felt the Nassau and Westchester losses close to home, said in an interview with Gotham Gazette that those outcomes would likely factor into his own decision-making.

“What occurred certainly in the suburbs of New York City in 2017 should weigh on us,” said Molinaro. “I think what happened [on Election Day] is the result of an energized [Democratic] base, which is upset with the national politics -- no question -- and organized opposition to the constitutional convention question; those two things combined, with a few other local variables.”

Molinaro, who has been a vocal critic of Cuomo on social media and elsewhere, is especially critical of the administration’s failure to accompany the state’s property tax cap with adequate mandate relief, the heroin crisis, and failing schools, and has a good reputation as a county manager. Like Wilson, he has emphasized city metro area interests like fixing the subway system. He has also cited his young family, including a 6-month-old son, as one reservation about running.

On the more conservative end of the spectrum are the two upstate legislators, DeFrancisco and Kolb, both of whom have extensive legislative experience and have not been shy about criticizing the governor and his policies.

DeFrancisco, who has been representing the Syracuse area since 1992, says he recognizes Cuomo’s fundraising advantage and name recognition, but also sees many similarities between today and 1994, the year Pataki beat Cuomo’s father, former Governor Mario Cuomo, who was then seeking a third term amid buzz about presidential aspirations, like those that surround Andrew Cuomo now.

“Back then people were leaving the state, exactly like it it is now. There was a deficit back then -- I remember it vividly -- of $5 billion. The Democratic comptroller is estimating that the budget deficit going into January is going to be $4 to $6 billion. Almost an identical situation,” said DeFrancisco. “And there was a feeling out there -- the same thing I’m hearing now -- that it’s ‘anybody but Cuomo.’ An individual by the name of George Pataki that nobody knew, the former mayor of Peekskill, a first-term senator, ends up being the nominee and beats him.”

DeFrancisco regularly attacks Cuomo, and he hasn’t hid his frustration with the fact that much of his legislation, including a bill to restore procurement oversight powers to the state comptroller, has not reached the Senate floor, even as the chamber is controlled by Republicans. “I believe the best way to make change and the fastest way to make substantial change is by having a Republican governor,” he said.

Kolb, as leader of the minority conference in the Assembly, has had the liberty of taking principled stands, such as pushing for significant ethics reform and advocating for a “yes” vote on the constitutional convention. The Republican from Canandaigua has consistently voted against legislation that is controversial in upstate’s more conservative, rural areas, like Cuomo’s signature 2013 gun-control legislation, the SAFE Act.

Kolb, who prior to taking office in 2000 was an entrepreneur and ran two manufacturing companies, Refractron Technologies and North American Filter Corporation, said he believes he has “the best blend of private sector and public sector experience.”

“I’ve created jobs. I know the obstacles and how to fix them. I’m problem solver and I’ve done it in the public sector and the public sector and I’ve also shown I could work across the aisle,” he said.

The Republican contenders all say they would work to capture the disillusionment in Cuomo’s policies felt on both sides of the aisle. In 2014, Cuomo endured a bruising primary amid criticisms from progressives that he empowers the Senate GOP alliance with rouge Democrats, impeding the state from moving in a more progressive direction, a rallying cry that has since picked up steam. Zephyr Teachout, a professor at Fordham’s law school, won a surprising 34 percent of the Democratic vote in that primary after running a truncated campaign that began with no name recognition or money. Another tough primary in 2018, which Cuomo has done some work to avoid by passing more progressive legislation, could hurt the governor in a general election, largely depending on the opponent.

The potential GOP candidates said they plan to hold Cuomo accountable on issues like the subways, upstate’s crumbling infrastructure and outmigration, rising property taxes, his failure to tackle corruption in state government, and what they see as his failing economic development initiatives.

A key initial step for those exploring the race and possibly seeking the GOP nomination is to appeal to Republican county chairs, who make up the party committee and meetings have been taking place, with candidates touring the state. A deal may be cut in advance in order to avoid a primary, but there have been years when the committee votes are split between two or three candidates and an open contest for the GOP nomination is held. Candidates unhappy with or outside the party establishment process can always petition themselves onto the ballot whether an intra-party deal is struck or not.

Some watchers of state politics say that regardless of the GOP nominee, the math just doesn’t work for the Republican Party. “When you break it down arithmetically, they have to crack 35 percent in New York City to have a chance to win, and carry 57 percent of the vote of the Suburban downstate counties -- Suffolk, Nassau, Westchester and Rockland -- and then pass 60 percent upstate,” said Bruce Gyory, a former advisor to three Democratic governors and now a professor at Albany University. “That was the Pataki model for his three terms and particularly his third term, and boy-oh-boy the Republicans are nowhere close to meeting that challenge in any region.”

In 2014, the Republican Party made strides from 2010 with Astorino as their candidate, grabbing 41 percent of the vote compared to Cuomo’s 57 percent. Astorino took 42 of 50 upstate counties, compared to just 13 upstate counties won by 2010 GOP candidate Carl Paladino. In the suburbs, Astorino also gained ground, but ultimately did not crack 50 percent in the crucial Westchester, Nassau, and Rockland counties. He drew approximately 15 percent of the vote in the five boroughs.

Cuomo’s approval rating took a hit earlier this year, apparently due to New York City’s ongoing subway woes, but his popularity has appeared to be on the rebound, with a Quinnipiac University poll from October showing that 70 percent of city voters approved of the Democratic governor, including more than 50 percent of Republicans.

Another threat to party-affiliated GOP candidates may be coming from Paladino, the Buffalo-area businessman and Donald Trump supporter. Paladino was reported to be mulling another run, but went silent after his removal from the Buffalo school board for allegedly leaking confidential information from executive board meetings. He also drew negative attention last year for racist comments sent to a Buffalo publication about former President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama. A Paladino entrance into the race could drag a prefered Republican establishment candidate to the right or cause other problems for the GOP, including additional focus on Trump or requiring Paladino's opposition to raise and spend significant money to win the primary. Paladino did not return a request for comment about whether he will run.

“I could see him coming to the conclusion that the only way to regain public prestige is to run again for governor and he could complicate the primary field a great deal because he could change the regional balance of power if he continues to have that hold on western New York,” said Gyory. “He's a man who, if you study him, his public person, he has a thin skin and great pride.”

Correction: A previous version of this article mistated the totals for the 2010 New York Comptroller's race.

***
by Rachel Silberstein, State government reporter, Gotham Gazette
     

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