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'Undecided' Leads Competitive Democratic Attorney General Primary


Tish James City Hall rally

Letitia James at City Hall (photo: Gotham Gazette)


In the four-way contest for the Democratic nomination for attorney general, Public Advocate Letitia James is leading the pack but more than 40 percent of likely primary voters have yet to decide who they will support, according to the latest Siena College poll released Tuesday.

The poll, conducted from July 22 to 26, sampled hundreds of Democrats across the state that are likely to vote in the September 13 primary. James, who is the State Democratic Party’s chosen designee for attorney general, received 25 percent of the vote from those polled, ahead of U.S. Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, who polled at 16 percent; Fordham Law professor Zephyr Teachout, who received 13 percent; and Leecia Eve, a former aide to Governor Andrew Cuomo and Hillary Clinton, who polled at 4 percent. But 42 percent of those polled said they were undecided, and it is not clear that it, or any other poll, is accurately measuring who will come out to vote in September.

“It’s not surprising that the race is wide open since none of the candidates are particularly well known to voters,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg, in a statement accompanying the poll’s release.

The numbers seemed to buoy the hopes of each candidate, though they all showed a lack of name recognition with voters. James seems to be the most popular of all the four, with 36 percent of voters holding a favorable opinion of her. Teachout and Maloney’s favorability rating was 27 percent and 21 percent, respectively, while Eve only had 9 percent of voters that felt the same. Mostly, voters said they didn’t know enough about the candidates to have an opinion.

New York City voters, who make up a large portion of the Democratic primary electorate, overwhelmingly chose James, with 41 percent of the vote, and she performed particularly well with African-American and Latino voters, among whom she received 56 percent and 35 percent of the vote respectively. After having become the first woman of color to win a citywide office in 2013, James, if victorious, would become the first woman of color elected to a statewide position if she wins the primary and general election for attorney general.

“Tish James’ record as Public Advocate, a City Council Member, and as an Assistant Attorney General has engendered grassroots support from New Yorkers of all backgrounds - the truest testament to the strength of her candidacy,” said Delaney Kempner, a James campaign spokesperson, in a statement. “She is solely focused on addressing the real issues that New Yorkers are facing.”

The poll showed that James has nothing to take for granted, despite the fact that she has the powerful backing of Governor Andrew Cuomo, who has helped her raise money and build her profile among voters, and is likely to do more of both ahead of primary day.

“Over the next six weeks, all of these candidates have a lot of work to do to become known to Democratic primary voters and then get them to the polls in what is likely to be – sadly – a low turnout election,” Greenberg said. “Although James has the early lead, there’s a long way to go in this race before we know which Democrat will take on Republican Keith Wofford to succeed Barbara Underwood in an election with no incumbent.”

Among suburban voters, Maloney was the more popular choice, with 25 percent supporting his campaign, compared with 15 percent for James and 9 percent for Teachout. In upstate New York, Maloney again led with 21 percent of the vote, while Teachout had 17 percent and James got only 5 percent. Maloney and Teachout had almost the same level of support among white voters, while James was behind the two.

Eve, the least known candidate, says she is undeterred. “We are energized by the strong, grassroots support we are receiving from people across New York who know that Leecia has what it takes to be a fearless and effective champion for all New Yorkers,” said Maggie McKeon, a campaign spokesperson.

Maloney’s favorability hovered between 19 and 26 percent across all categories of voters. “This race is wide open,” the Hudson Valley member of Congress said in a statement. “New Yorkers are still waiting to see which candidate can show that they are passionate enough to take the fight to Trump and experienced enough to win - and right now I am the only one who can do that."

Teachout’s campaign made a similar argument, while also stressing that the polling was flawed and did not account for the energized progressive base that has turned out for candidates such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who beat ten-term Democratic Representative Joe Crowley in the June congressional primary. “[W]e've seen that the polls aren't really great at understanding insurgent candidates, as we saw with Dana Balter," said Cristina Gonzalez, a Teachout campaign spokesperson, in a statement, with reference to the congressional candidacy of another upstart, unexpected female primary winner.

The youngest category of voters, those between the ages of 18-34, mostly supported James, giving her 43 percent of the vote, compared with 8 percent for Teachout, 9 percent for Maloney, and 6 percent for Eve. The younger demographic is one that Teachout expects to do well with given she is running her campaign furthest to the left and with the most anti-establishment fervor (James also led among voters aged 35-54 and older).

Teachout has received the backing of a number of progressive groups, elected officials, and activists, but James has more than her share as well, and despite her ties to the more centrist Cuomo, she says she is refusing to cede the progressive ground to her opponent. Still, Teachout has repeatedly made campaign pledges, like refusing corporate money and demanding hearings in Albany on sexual harassment in state government, and called on her opponents to do the same, and they have not. She’s thus far staked out the most aggressive positions and stance toward her competition, while James has been coalition-building and raising money, Eve has been campaigning around the state, and Maloney has done little on the trail while attending to business in Washington, D.C.

The four contenders are set to share the stage for a live broadcast debate on NY1 on August 28, but Teachout and Eve have both been beating the drum for a series of broadcast debates across the state. Since June, Teachout has proposed six television and radio debates in New York City, Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo, Syracuse, and Long Island. “Four years ago when I ran for statewide office voters were denied a full and frank debate,” Teachout said in a June 27 statement. “The candidates for Attorney General owe them so much better this year, especially given the widespread erosion of democratic norms post-Trump.”

Eve has floated similar terms. Maloney’s campaign has been relatively quiet on all fronts -- he has not appeared at several attorney general forums attended by one or more of the other three, a fact James made reference to on Monday when Gotham Gazette asked if she would accept the debate challenge put forth by Teachout. Maloney’s campaign said he plans to attend a forum in Westchester on Thursday night hosted by the local Indivisible chapter.

James said she is broadly open to the idea of more debates, but did not make reference to the idea of six over the airwaves. "I have a proven record of accomplishments and I have a proven record of being a progressive. I will again debate and share and compare my progressive agenda and all that I have done in the state of New York and particularly in the city of New York against any of my opponents everyday and I’m confident that I will stand the test of time,” James told Gotham Gazette on Monday, shortly after being endorsed by 10 of the 11 women elected to the New York City Council.

[Listen to appearances by Zephyr Teachout, Tish James, and Leecia Eve on the Max & Murphy podcast (Sean Patrick Maloney will be a guest August 8)]

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by Samar Khurshid, senior reporter, Gotham Gazette
     

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What New York Voters Care About Ahead of State Elections


govcuomo rochester

(photo via the Governor's office)


The latest statewide poll from Quinnipiac University shows New York voters’ preferences in the races for governor, attorney general, and others. But it also divulges the issues that New Yorkers say are most important to them in the run-up to the September primary and November general elections.

One question asked what issue voters prioritize most in their vote for governor, with a short list of issues provided to those being polled, as opposed to it being an open-ended question. With 23 percent of those polled, the economy was the number one choice of New York voters, followed by government corruption and health care at 19 percent each, taxes and education at 15 percent, abortion at 4 percent, “don’t know” at 3 percent, and “something else” at 2 percent. Issues like the environment, transportation, affordable housing, and criminal justice were not provided as options, though all are prominent in the public discourse and the gubernatorial campaign.

Among Democrats, health care stood as the most highly prioritized issue of the choices, at 26 percent, with education and the economy at 21 percent each. For Republicans, taxes and the economy co-led at 24 percent; for independent voters, the economy led at 26 percent and government corruption was at 22 percent. Younger respondents were more likely to prioritize the economy than older voters, who were more likely to prioritize health care or government corruption. The poll was taken as federal corruption convictions continued to roll in among former top state lawmakers and former top aides to Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Though transit was not provided as an option in this most recent poll, a February Quinnipiac poll found that just 29 percent of respondents approved of Cuomo’s handling of the MTA, which runs the subways and buses and is largely controlled by the governor, versus 49 percent who disapproved and 22 percent who were unsure. Cynthia Nixon, Cuomo’s Democratic primary opponent, has made the MTA a major focus of her campaign, accusing the governor of negligence and mismanagement.

The percentage of respondents to the July poll who believe government corruption is a very serious or somewhat serious problem is largely unchanged from February, despite the convictions of four high profile government officials, including two with close ties to Cuomo: Joe Percoco, Alain Kaloyeros, Sheldon Silver, and Dean Skelos. In February, 83 percent of respondents said government corruption was a very serious or somewhat serious problem in New York, while in July 85 percent said the same. Among people ages 18-34, there was a drop: 54 percent said government corruption was a very serious problem in February while only 36 percent said so in July. It’s unclear what could account for this.

In February, 47 percent of respondents told Quinnipiac that all current elected office holders in New York State need to be voted out if political corruption is to be addressed, versus 38 percent who said the current crop are capable of addressing the problem. Forty-nine percent called Governor Cuomo “part of the problem.”

The issues of this year’s race diverge somewhat from the issues that defined the 2014 election cycle. A major issue in 2014 that had largely been out of the discussion this year is fracking, with a July 2014 Siena poll showing sharply divided opinion on the process. Cuomo signed an executive order banning fracking in New York State in December 2014, after winning reelection. This year, environmental activists and some candidates are calling for the banning of all fracking-related infrastructure, often meaning piping that moves fracked gas into or through New York from elsewhere, while Republican nominee Marc Molinaro is saying he would undo Cuomo’s order and allow a pilot fracking program in the Southern Tier of New York.

Government corruption, on the other hand, is similarly in focus this year as it was in 2014. That year, Cuomo disbanded the Moreland Commission to Investigate Public Corruption, after its investigators reportedly began to probe prominent Cuomo donors and practices by legislators, and a package of ethics reforms were included in the enacted state budget as part of a deal to shutter the commission prematurely. Some, including former U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara, accused Cuomo of having disbanded the commission after it began looking into him and his administration’s dealings.

According to an August 2014 NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, 62 percent of New York voters felt Cuomo should not have intervened in the commission, with 52 percent of respondents claiming that the governor’s office had acted unethically, though only 23 percent of respondents said that the Moreland Commission scandal was a “major factor” in their vote choice in November.

Nixon has promised to open a new Moreland Commission on Public Corruption if she’s elected governor, while Molinaro has outlined a slate of government ethics reforms. Molinaro has made corruption in state government, especially in the Cuomo orbit, a major focus of his campaign so far. Nixon -- whose election against Cuomo is September 13, while Molinaro awaits the winner for the general election, along with other, smaller-party candidates -- has unveiled several policy packages, including on education, criminal justice reform, and housing. Molinaro has pledged more policy agenda items in the coming weeks and months, including a major plan to overhaul the state’s property tax system.

For his part, Cuomo has staked his pitch for a third term on his accomplishments from terms one and two, as well as a wish-list consisting of progressive priorities that have not passed the state Legislature. Cuomo largely boasts of accomplishing marriage equality, a major gun control law, a paid family leave program, and a significant minimum wage hike, as well as some criminal justice reforms and massive state investments into infrastructure. He’s said other items will pass next term if he’s returned to the executive chamber and Democrats can swing the state Senate (they already control the Assembly by a wide margin), such as voting, campaign finance and bail reforms, among others.

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by Ben Brachfeld, Gotham Gazette

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Too Much Debt, Not Enough Savings: State Finances on Rocky Ground Comptroller Says


Tom DiNapoli Comptroller Bronx

Comptroller DiNapoli (photo: @NYSComptroller)


For New York’s fiscal picture, “Trump’s policies are as great a concern as the economic cycle,” according to State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, who spoke at length recently about the state’s finances and economy, which are precarious for a number of reasons.

During a 30-minute interview with Gotham Gazette Executive Editor Ben Max for a special on Manhattan Neighborhood Network that aired Sunday, DiNapoli discussed the state’s limited savings relative to its spending, its high indebtedness, and its weak preparedness for any future economic downturn, whether influenced by federal policy or a more expected cyclical recession.

If the economy sours and tax revenues decrease, New York state government has few methods of recourse beyond cutting spending, DiNapoli said, because of the limited amount that has been socked away. If and when another recession hits, “we don’t have the cushion of reserves to draw on,” since the state maintains savings well below the statutorily-set minimum, the comptroller said. DiNapoli said that, while New York could be setting aside up to $5 billion in reserves, it only maintains around $2 billion, and that the state last made a deposit in its reserve account in 2015. That’s compared to a state budget of about $168 billion for the current fiscal year.

DiNapoli pointed out that the state has decided to spend billions in settlements with financial institutions, as opposed to putting some or most of that money away in savings.

Recession or not, “New York State will suffer” if the Republican Party keeps its majorities in both chambers of Congress, DiNapoli added, with a nod toward the federal tax reform legislation passed by Congress and signed into law by President Donald Trump in late 2017. Trump and Congressional Republicans could fully repeal the Affordable Care Act or further slash funding for social services, DiNapoli warned, both of which could hurt New York.

Otherwise, DiNapoli mostly shied away from political statements; while he is a Democrat, the state comptroller is an ostensibly nonpartisan position, though political ideology certainly has some effect on policy-making and oversight work. It is one of the four statewide elected positions, along with governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, and it may be the least-known and least-understood. DiNapoli explained he essentially runs New York’s “Office of Accountability” — which audits state agencies, public authorities, and local governments, approves state contracts, comments on state fiscal practices, and manages the state’s pool of unclaimed funds, returning over $1.5 million a day to New Yorkers, among other tasks. The comptroller also manages the state’s massive public employee pension system.

“It’s the best job in government,” he said.

New York, DiNapoli said, is in better fiscal shape now than it was during the Great Recession, noting that the state has gained back the jobs and revenue lost during the financial crisis.

But economic recovery in the state has been fractured, with most gains heavily concentrated in New York City and its surrounding area. DiNapoli described New York’s post-recession recovery era as “a tale of two economies,” with regions like the Southern Tier, Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, and Central New York far less economically successful than New York City has been.

Still, DiNapoli emphasized, New York is overall in strong economic shape, and he noted that, as opposed to recoveries from previous economic downturns, the state’s post-2008 bounceback was not led by Wall Street. Rather, a more diverse group of industries — technology, healthcare, and tourism, for instance — collectively resurrected the economy. To this day, the state’s financial industry is smaller than it was before the recession in terms of jobs.

“This strong recovery has been stronger and longer than past recoveries,” he said, though, he added, it will end at a certain point. When that time comes, New York may be in trouble.

Beyond maintaining a thin cushion of reserves, New York is one of the country’s most indebted states, DiNapoli said, and it’s only due to “gimmicks” that the state appears to be under its debt cap. So, when a crisis hits, the state may have no choice but to cut spending on social services. DiNapoli urged New Yorkers to be more conservative in their expectations of future revenue and spending, and he spoke of the political challenge of strengthening New York’s long-term financial security.

As the “least partisan of offices,” in DiNapoli’s framing, the Office of the Comptroller is not as beholden to the political logic of short-term decision-making as the governor’s office or state Legislature may be. Crafting the state’s budget, though, is ultimately a political project, meaning initiatives that would bolster New York’s economic future but provide little immediate political gain, like setting aside reserve funds, are often neglected.

DiNapoli expects the Democrats to take control of the state Senate after this fall’s elections, thus bringing unified Democratic rule to Albany in 2018, assuming the governorship and Assembly remain Democratic, which is likely, and for regional interests to dominate spending debates. When asked if New Yorkers should be worried about that possibility -- Republicans often argue that full Democratic control of state government would be fiscally disastrous -- DiNapoli said he does not distinguish between the spending habits of the two major parties — “Republicans are not shy about spending money,” he said — and therefore does not necessarily foresee an increase in spending under Democratic control. Many Democrats are calling for higher taxes on top earners, though, something that Republicans continue to sound the alarm about.

DiNapoli urged voters to “evaluate candidates not just on their party labels, but on who they are.” A lifelong Democrat who grew up in a Republican household on Long Island, DiNapoli said he joined the Democratic Party for its “open and free-flowing” spirit, which both strengthens and hinders it. Though the response to Trump has made the party stronger, brought more young people and women into its fold, and encouraged “open and honest competition,” DiNapoli said, the Democrats “need to not beat each other up and let others win.”

He pointed to the divide in the party exposed and deepened by the Bernie Sanders-Hillary Clinton presidential primary, a “wound reopened” by Clinton’s loss in the general election, as particularly concerning.

The Democrats “often lose elections by fighting each other,” DiNapoli said. Significant intraparty fighting is occurring for Democrats right now in New York, as both Governor Andrew Cuomo and Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul are being challenged in the primary, by Cynthia Nixon and City Council Member Jumaane Williams, respectively, among other contentious legislative races. There is also a wide open primary for attorney general, with four strong candidates campaigning. DiNapoli, who is not facing a primary challenge, told Max he is endorsing Cuomo and Hochul for reelection, but declined to endorse any of the Democratic attorney general candidates — Letitia James, Zephyr Teachout, Sean Patrick Maloney, and Leecia Eve.

The four candidates are “all good friends of mine,” he said. “So we’ll see how that goes.”

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Watch the full interview from Manhattan Neighborhood Network:

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by Daniel Yadin for Gotham Gazette

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