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Developing 2020 General Election Results in New York


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2020 Voting (photo: Michael Appleton/Mayor's Office)


Results are not official, hundreds of thousands of ballots are still to be counted, and only some New York races can be called as of election night, but millions of votes cast by New Yorkers in the 2020 general election have provided some indication of winners of a number of races.

In-person voting totals across New York State hit 6,495,194 on election night, per the State Board of Elections, including 2,346,302 in New York City, with hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots still to be counted, including roughly 550,000 in New York City alone.

We don't know who won the presidential race, but Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won New York and its 29 electoral votes, at this point receiving 55.16% of the counted New York vote, with President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence receiving 42.8%. In New York City, Biden and Harris have received roughly 73% of the presidential/vice presidential race votes, with Trump and Pence getting about 26%. Like all other numbers, those figures are all but sure to change as the rest of the votes are counted. A Biden-Harris national popular vote win is all but certain, while an Electoral College win is appearing more and more likely as of Wednesday morning, as is Republicans holding on to the majority in the U.S. Senate and Democrats holding on to the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

As for a still very unofficial breakdown by borough, with many thousands of votes still to be counted, Biden-Harris are ahead of Trump-Pence in the four boroughs other than Staten Island, which was also the only borough Trump won in 2016. Biden was ahead of Trump 84%-14% in Manhattan; 82%-17% in the Bronx; 73.6%-25% in Brooklyn; 68.5%-30% in Queens. Trump was ahead 61.3%-37.4% on Staten Island.

More than 287,338 of the votes across the state (170,000 in New York City alone) for Biden and Harris came on the Working Families Party ballot line, which means the party hit the new state threshold and will continue to have an automatic ballot line moving forward, for at least two more years. Trump and Pence received 249,078 of their votes across the state on the Conservative Party line, helping it to also hit the threshold to keep its ballot line. The fate of other small political parties' ballot lines looks doomed, though they can potentially win them back in the future via gubernatorial or presidential elections.

In New York's 11th Congressional District, spanning all of Staten Island and some of Southern Brooklyn, incumbent Rep. Max Rose, a first-term Democrat, has been locked in a bitter battle with Republican Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis. The challenger holds a large lead as of election night and declared victory, while Rose pointed to potentially 50,000 absentee votes still to be counted and did not concede.

Without any absentee ballots counted in the race, 236,008 votes had been tallied on election night, with Malliotakis taking 136,382 of them, good for almost 58% to Rose’s 42% and 99,224 votes.

A similar dynamic is playing out in the overlapping 22nd State Senate of Southern Brooklyn, where first-term incumbent Democrat Andrew Gounardes is being challenged by Republican Vito Bruno. Without absentee ballots counted, 75,293 votes had been tallied as of election night, and Bruno led with 40,621 votes, good for almost 54%, to Gounardes’ 34,586 votes, or almost 46%. The city Board of Elections has already received 12,744 absentee ballots in the district, with more likely coming in, and they skew heavily toward Democratic voters, according to figures provided by the BOE. Whether those Democratic voters, among others, fall heavily enough toward Gounardes is still to be seen.

In the overlapping 46th Assembly District, Democratic Assemblymember Mathylde Frontus is in trouble against Republican challenger Mark Szuszkiewicz. With thousands of absentee votes to be counted, Frontus has received 15,030 votes (45.66%) to Szuszkiewicz’s 17,852 votes (54.2%).

Gounardes’ race is part of the battle for control of the State Senate, which Democrats flipped in 2018 and took a wide margin that Republicans were hoping to chip away at this year to set themselves up to retake the chamber in 2022. The GOP appears to be on the verge of making up some ground, though there are many votes still to be counted and the math of the seats is somewhat tricky.

While Gounardes and several other Democratic incumbents in the Senate are in some trouble, Democrats are on the verge of flipping a few seats that are or were most recently held by Republicans. The 22nd District is the only competitive State Senate race in New York City, while several races on Long Island and north of the five boroughs are highly competitive. (A full rundown of competitive State Senate races will be available later on Wednesday.)

As is always the case, Long Island -- especially Nassau County -- is making for one of the most interesting battleground areas in the state. As he did four years ago, Trump is winning Suffolk County by a wide margin, but the presidential vote in Nassau is close -- Hillary Clinton narrowly won Nassau County in 2016. As of Wednesday morning, Trump had won 49.56% of the vote in Nassau to Biden's 48.46%.

One to several State Senate seats that Democrats flipped on the Island in 2018 may flip back, but absentee votes must be counted and will impact those races as well as House contests and the presidential tally.

While Democrats are not in any risk of losing the Assembly majority or needing to worry about the margin shrinking much, Frontus is not the only Democratic incumbent in some trouble, and Democrats also struggled in multiple open seats without an incumbent running. Other Democrats who could be knocked off include Edward Braunstein of Queens and Michael Cusick of Staten Island, though both will probably prevail once absentee ballots are counted. Republicans also appear set to keep Malliotakis' Assembly seat in a district Democrats had begun to have high hopes for.

Democratic Assemblymember Rebecca Seawright of the Upper East Side does appear on the verge of holding onto her seat against a spirited Republican challenge complicated by the fact that Seawright’s campaign made errors keeping her from the Democratic Party ballot line. And Phara Souffrant Forrest, who beat Assemblymember Walter Mosley in the June Democratic primary, again prevailed over Mosley, who was on the Working Families Party ballot line.

Less competitive races that can and have been called include:
-Democratic City Council Member Donovan Richards winning the race to be the next Queens Borough President.

-Democrat Darma Diaz was uncontested in the general election and will become the next City Council Member in Brooklyn's 37th District, a seat that has been vacant since Rafael Espinal resigned for a private sector job.

-Democrat Jabari Brisport winning the 25th State Senate District in Brooklyn to replace retiring Senator Velmanette Montgomery.

-Democratic City Council Member Ritchie Torres winning the 15th Congressional District seat to replace retiring Rep. Jose Serrano.

-Jamaal Bowman winning the 16th Congressional District in the Bronx and Westchester, aftering having defeated Rep. Eliot Engel in the Democrartic primary.

-Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez winning her first reelection bid in the 14th Congressional District in the Bronx and Queens.

-New York City Congressional Reps. Gregory Meeks, Grace Meng, Nydia Velazquez, Hakeem Jeffries, Yvette Clarke, Jerry Nadler, Carolyn Maloney, and Adriano Espaillat, all Democrats, are all coasting to reelection.

Congressional Races Outside New York City
-It appears Republicans will hold the 1st and 2nd Congressional District seats on Long Island, via Rep. Lee Zeldin and nominee Andrew Garbarino, respectively.

-Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi is trailing in the 3rd and Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice is leading in the 4th, with absentee ballots still to count.

-Democrat Mondaire Jones will win the 17th Congressional District seat.

-Democratic Reps. Sean Patrick Maloney and Antonio Delgado are in close races in the 18th and 19th Districts, respectively, as absentee ballot counting is set to begin.

-Democratic Rep. Paul Tonko has a commanding lead in the 20th Congressional District.

-Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik has a commanding lead in the 21st Congressional District.

-Democratic Rep. Anthony Brandisi appears to be in trouble against former Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney, whom he unseated in 2018 in the 22nd Congressional District.

-Republican Reps. Tom Reed, John Katko, and Chris Jacobs appear headed toward reelection in the 23rd, 24th, and 27th Congressional Districts.

-Democratic Reps. Joseph Morelle and Brian Higgins appear headed toward reelection in the 25th and 26th Congressional Districts.

More detailed results will be available in the coming days and weeks.

9 Things to Watch in the 2020 General Election in New York


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Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis, left, & Rep. Max Rose face off in NY-11


Voting in the 2020 general election is set to come to a conclusion on Tuesday, November 3, Election Day. The full, official results won't be known for weeks.

The eyes of the world are on the presidential race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, and it's unclear when a winner may be declared.

Though it's unlikely Trump can pull off an upset and beat Biden in New York, voters here have been going to the polls in large numbers, just like across the country, with 2020 expected to see modern record voter turnout. How exactly the presidential race shakes out in New York is among many things to watch as we count the votes. 

1. Voter Turnout
Voter turnout, both in person and by mail, is likely to reach historic highs in the 2020 general election.

There are 5.3 million voters registered in New York City​ and just under 13 million registered across New York State, as of February 2020. (Many thousands more registered between then and the October deadline, but those numbers are not yet available.)

In the 2016 presidential election, only about 64,000 absentee ballots were cast in New York City. This year, eligibility for absentee balloting has been expanded to all registered voters due to the coronavirus pandemic, a change that led to a huge surge in such voting in the June primaries. As of October 20 of this year, over 1 million absentee ballots for the general election had been processed in New York City, according to the city Board of Elections (BOE). The board will accept absentee ballots that are put in the mail or dropped off by Election Day.

The nine-day early voting period, October 24-November 1, has yielded over 1.1 million in-person votes cast in New York City alone, a little more than 21% of registered voters in the city (using the February number). This is the first presidential general election with either universal absentee voting or early voting in New York. (In 2019, the first year of early voting when only a handful of local races were on the ballot, only about 60,000 people citywide and 256,000 statewide voted at an early voting site.)

While many New Yorkers are taking advantage of voting by mail or early voting, Election Day is still expected to see a large surge of voters, with many expecting New York turnout, like that across the country, to surpass recent election cycles.

In the 2016 presidential election, 2.76 million voters cast ballots in New York City (roughly 56% of registered voters) out of a total 7.8 million votes cast statewide (a 62% turnout rate).

In the 2012 presidential election 2.47 million votes were cast in New York City (a 53% turnout rate), out of 7.13 million votes across the state (59% turnout). In 2008, when Barack Obama was first elected president, there were 2.6 million votes cast in New York City (57% turnout), of 7.7 million votes cast across the state (64% turnout).

2. New York City Tries to Run a Smoother Election with Expanded Options
It has already been another election marred by poor execution by the New York City Board of Elections. What Election Day itself will bring is yet to be seen. While some changes and challenges have been brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, some problems this year look like those made by the Board of Elections and its vendors in prior years.

There are many outstanding questions about what will unfold on Election Day and in the counting of ballots thereafter.

The 2020 elections have seen an unprecedented level of absentee voting, the result of the state expanding eligibility to all registered voters as part of the larger effort to combat the spread of COVID-19. The high volume and the amount of time it takes to receive and verify mail-in ballots means that many races may not be officially called until weeks after polls close. The New York City Board of Elections has predicted it will complete the ballot canvassing process by November 24, four days before the statutory deadline. The Electoral College is set to formally elect the president on December 14.

Lines at the polls will be long this year, not only because of high turnout, but because of social distancing. The city Board of Elections says it has hired 4,800 additional poll site workers who will be assigned specifically to line management. The board has also mailed "Fast Pass Tags" to all registered voters that have scannable barcodes for expedited and "contactless" poll site check-in. Voters may (but are not required to) bring them to their early voting or Election Day poll location, where electronic poll books are also now in use, having been first instituted last year among a wave of voting and election reforms.

Completed absentee ballots can also be dropped off during open hours at early voting and Election Day polling locations and at BOE borough offices. There is no check-in required for using one of the dropboxes.

The city BOE opened 88 early voting sites this fall, up from 79 for the June primaries and 61 during the general election last year, when early voting began in New York. That number, which became 89 after the threat of a lawsuit by a Manhattan Assembly member, has proven too small, however, given the large turnout, adding to the list of issues with Board of Elections planning and administration.

After having reduced the total number of early voting hours by ten, from 74 to 64 hours, according to Vote Early New York, a non-profit advocacy group, the BOE responded to large turnout on the first several days by adding additional early voting hours. In one Upper East Side district, following days of long lines and a planned court challenge from Assemblymember Rebecca Seawright, herself on the ballot this year, the BOE opened up an alternative early voting site. The sites were open for nine days from October 24 through November 1.

New York City is the only jurisdiction in the state that assigns voters to a specific early voting site, rather than having universal centers where any registered voter can go. Voting rights advocates have pushed the city to adopt borough-wide and citywide early voting but administrators have said memory limitations on the machines it uses make it impossible to store the ballots of every election district.

On top of the new absentee voting element this year, election administrators are operating under a brand new state requirement to notify voters when their mail-in ballots are being rejected on certain technical errors and provide them a channel to correct the mistake.

The new mandate, signed into law in August, applies to missing or incorrect signatures on the inner "oath" envelope and to ballots that were returned without the oath envelope entirely. When there is a “cure” eligible error, the Board of Elections is required to send notices to all mailing and email addresses on file for the voter at hand, and must make attempts by phone wherever possible to reach each voter. The notice will include a form through which voters can "cure" the mistake and return to the BOE to be reviewed and counted. Pursuant to an executive order signed by Governor Andrew Cuomo, administrators are allowed to review ballot envelopes for defects as soon as they are received, but state law requires they remain sealed with the ballot uncounted until seven days after Election Day.

There are always unforeseen mishaps that impact the voting experience leading up to and on Election Day in New York City. In September, a vendor printing error led as many as 100,000 Brooklynites to receive another voter's oath envelope, which would render the ballot inside invalid if cast. The BOE says it has contacted all impacted voters and has provided new, correct ballots and envelopes.

Between a fifth and a quarter of absentee ballots are rejected every year on technicalities, a majority of which are because of missing signatures. The state has redesigned the oath envelope to emphasize with a prominent red 'X' where a signature is required and passed the ‘curing’ law.

3. Presidential Election Results Across New York City and State
If the last presidential election result is any indication, Joe Biden will handily win New York and pick up its 29 electoral votes. In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won 4.5 million votes across the state, compared to Trump’s 2.8 million. In New York City, the Clinton-Kaine ticket beat the Trump-Pence ticket overwhelmingly, garnering 2.16 million votes to 494,549 votes.

Trump, however, won 45 New York counties to Clinton’s 17, particularly as he was successful in less-populated rural and suburban areas. He did win both Staten Island (Richmond County) and Suffolk County, one of the two on Long Island, along with Nassau, where Clinton won fairly narrowly.

In New York City, there are a few pockets of Republican strength beyond much of Staten Island. Trump won parts of Queens that are home to white ethnic voters and a significant swathe of Brooklyn where there is a concentration of Orthodox Jewish communities.

While Trump did well in some suburbs of the city, many parts of the region moved towards Democrats in the 2018 elections, when Trump was not on the ballot himself but many voters appeared motivated by his initial nearly two years on the job. Case in point, in the 2018 state elections, Democrats won several State Senate seats in districts long held by Republicans, some in extremely tight races, including one in Southern Brooklyn’s 22nd State Senate District. The same was true in Congressional races in the city and beyond, especially New York’s 11th Congressional District, where Democratic wins helped the party take over the House of Representatives. It remains to be seen whether Trump can help those Republicans make a comeback or if Democrats will retain their hold. 

Though Republicans are hoping that Trump’s presence at the top of the ticket will help them win back those seats in more conservative and moderate districts in rural and suburban areas outside New York City, Democrats are perhaps more confident that their base will turn out in greater numbers and they will win independents by large margins.

4. Can Minor Political Parties Keep Their Ballot Lines?
The presidential election is likely to have major consequences for the state’s minor political parties and what the New York ballot looks like in 2021 and beyond. New York’s fusion voting system, which allows candidates to run on several party lines on the ballot and accumulate votes, is not itself at risk of ending, but there are new thresholds parties must meet to keep an automatic ballot line on which to nominate candidates for offices all across the state.

The system gives minor parties like the Working Families, Conservative, Independence, Green, and Libertarian parties the ability to cross-endorse a candidate also backed by the Democratic or Republican Party to run on their line. The arrangement is mutually beneficial – candidates get allies that can help them expand their voter base and the parties garner influence with candidates and office-holders.

This year’s state budget included legislation creating a new campaign finance system for state elections, based on the recommendations of a state-created commission, while also creating new hurdles for minor parties that could place many of them in a tenuous position heading into the election.

Starting this year and continuing every two years, political parties now have to meet new, higher thresholds to automatically qualify for a ballot line. Where previously they only had to win 50,000 votes every four years in a gubernatorial election, they now have to win 2% of votes cast or 130,000 votes, whichever is greater, every two years, in a gubernatorial or presidential election. Based on the 2018 election, none of the state’s minor parties would have met that threshold except the Conservative Party. The Working Families Party is in the midst of a massive effort to keep its line.

[Read: New York's Smaller Political Parties Must Quickly Meet New Ballot Thresholds]

5. Max Rose Tries to Keep the Congressional Seat He Flipped in 2018
In New York’s 11th Congressional District, first-term Democrat Max Rose is in a pitched battle for his seat against Republican Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis. A recent NBC 4 New York / Marist Poll found that Malliotakis held a slight lead in the race, with 48% of likely voters to Rose’s 46%.

The district, which has swung several times between the two parties, covers all of Staten Island and parts of Southern Brooklyn along the waterfront. It has been a target for Republicans ever since Rose won it in 2018, defeating incumbent Dan Donovan, the Republican former Staten Island District Attorney.

Rose, a military veteran, is a moderate, center-left Democrat who has often sought to distance himself from the party’s more progressive policies and members. As he runs for reelection, he has repeatedly criticized Mayor Bill de Blasio, a two-term Democrat, for his perceived failures in running the city and has at times even expressed support for President Trump, though Rose did vote to impeach Trump.

Malliotakis represents the Assembly in a district that covers most of the east shore of Staten Island and a small part of Southern Brooklyn. She previously ran for mayor of New York City in 2017, but only won 27.1% of the vote, losing handily to de Blasio who won 65.1%. She did, however, win Staten Island that year with 70% to de Blasio’s 25.3%.

The seat is rated one of the most competitive across the country, and while it helped Democrats flip the House of Representatives in 2018, the party does not appear to need it to keep the House after this election. But whether it is part of Democrats keeping and expanding their majority or Republicans narrowing it or possibly flipping control back is yet to be seen. The seat had been Republicans’ only congressional office in New York City until Rose took it.

6. Other Congressional Races in New York and Control of the House
In the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats flipped control of the 435-seat House of Representatives, with a net gain of 40 seats. In New York, the party flipped three seats – Max Rose defeated Dan Donovan in the 11th District, Antonio Delgado prevailed over John Faso in the 19th District, and Anthony Brindisi was victorious against Claudia Tenney in the 22nd District.

Delgado looks to be headed to reelection, facing first-time Republican candidate Kyle Van De Water, an Army veteran and attorney, in a district slightly north of New York City. Further upstate, Brindisi is again facing Tenney this year as she seeks to reclaim the position. Though Tenney is hoping to be boosted by Trump’s presence on the top of the ticket, a recent Siena College poll showed that Brindisi has a comfortable nine-point lead in the race. Rose is the most vulnerable of the three Democrats, as he faces a tough fight against Malliotakis in a pro-Trump district. 

The state will also send some new Democrats to the House, candidates finalizing their journeys after tough primaries but easy general elections given teh overwhelmingly Democratic districts they’re running in. In the 15th District in the Bronx, Ritchie Torres, currently a City Council member, won the Democratic nomination from a crowded field vying to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Jose Serrano. In the 16th District, including parts of the Bronx and Westchester, progressive Democrat Jamaal Bowman won the June primary to unseat Rep. Eliot Engel, who had been in office for 16 terms. Both Torres and Bowman are all but assured to win the general election and head to Congress, as is another Democrat, Mondaire Jones, who won a tough primary north of the city to replace retiring Rep. Nita Lowey. 

7. Andrew Gounardes Tries to Keep the State Senate Seat He Flipped in 2018
Democrat Andrew Gounardes flipped Brooklyn’s State Senate District 22 in 2018, defeating longtime incumbent Marty Golden, one of the last remaining Republicans in the state Legislature representing New York City.

The district, situated in Southern Brooklyn, includes some of the more moderate parts of the city. Though it has more than twice as many registered Democratic voters as Republicans, Gounardes nonetheless won in 2018 by a narrow margin. This year, he’s being challenged by Vito Bruno, a former nightclub owner and president of the Edmund G. Seergy Republican Club.

Democrats have expressed confidence they can hold the seat given the registration advantage and Bruno’s relative lack of name recognition as well as Gounardes’ first-term accomplishments, while Republicans think Trump’s presence at the top of the ballot can help Bruno win, along with controversial criminal justice reforms passed by Democrats in the State Legislature.

[Read: Democrats Flipped a Brooklyn State Senate Seat in 2018; Is It In Play In 2020?]

8. Other State Senate Races Outside the City and Control of the Senate
After winning control of the State Senate in 2018 and working with their party-mates in the Assembly and governor’s office to pass a long list of liberal legislation, Democrats are now looking at the possibility of capturing a supermajority in the chamber. They currently hold 40 out of 63 seats; Republicans hold 20 while three are vacant from Republican resignations. Several Republicans have also announced their retirements at the end of the year, creating a slew of “open” seats that are being hotly contested.

Since 2018, Trump has grown increasingly unpopular in the state, Democratic voter enrollment has continued to increase, and the party has vastly outraised and outspent the GOP in state Senate campaign funds. Democrats are hoping that turnout will be in their favor again this year and believe they can pick up as many as ten seats; they only need a net gain of two for a supermajority, which would allow the Senate Democratic majority to work with the supermajority of Democrats in the Assembly to potentially override gubernatorial vetoes.

Republicans, however, maintain that they will hold on to all their seats and that they will be able to appeal to moderate Democrats and conservatives to unseat several first-term Democrats who have pushed the Legislature and the state overall towards the left.

Brooklyn’s 25th State Senate District will also see new representation from Jabari Brisport, who won the June primary over Assemblymember Tremaine Wright and others to fill a vacancy being left by the retirement of State Senator Velmanette Montgomery. Brisport, a democratic socialist, is running unopposed in the general election.

[Read: Democrats Eye a Supermajority, Republicans Look to Regain Seats: the 2020 New York State Senate Battle]

9. Other Races of Note in the City
Queens is set to get a new Borough President and it’s all but certain to be Democratic City Council Member Donovan Richards. In the June primary, Richards emerged victorious in a crowded field to claim the nomination; the seat has been held on an interim basis by BP Sharon Lee since former Borough President Melinda Katz resigned at the start of the year to become the borough’s district attorney.

Richards’ most prominent opponent is Republican nominee Joann Ariola, chair of the Queens County Republican Party. But Democrats hold a massive voter enrollment advantage and the borough has not elected a Republican as borough president since the 1950s.

[Read: Donovan Richards Lays Out His Vision As Likely Next Queens Borough President]

In Assembly District 76 on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, incumbent Democrat Rebecca Seawright is running for reelection. But Seawright’s bid is only noteworthy because she is running on the self-created “Rise and Unite" party line that she had to create after she was kicked off the Demorcatic and Working Families Party ballot lines after failing to file the proper ballot paperwork. She is being challenged by Republican Louis Puliafito in a race where the GOP is hoping to eek out a win based on there being no Democratic nominee on the ballot and the fact that the Upper East Side is still home to a sizable group of Republicans.

In Assembly District 64, Democrats may have a chance to flip a Republican-held seat as the current incumbent is Nicole Malliotakis, who is not running for reelection as she runs for Congress. Democrat Brandon Patterson, former deputy chief of staff to state Senator Diane Savino, and Republican Michael Tannousis, a former assistant district attorney in the Bronx and Staten Island DAs offices, are running against each other.

In Assembly District 57, incumbent Democrat Walter Mosley lost the Democratic primary to Phara Souffrant Forrest, a nurse and first-time candidate who was endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America. After losing the primary, Mosley is running on the Working Families Party line, having received their endorsement as well. But the WFP has asked him to stand down and urged their members to vote for Forrest instead, giving her their endorsement after the primary.

There are also some other notable Assembly races in the city, largely pro-forma finalizing of contested June primaries through the general election.

In Assembly District 31 in Queens, Khaleel Anderson, who is just 24 years old, came out on top in a crowded Democratic primary to win the nomination. The race was for an open seat left vacant after Assemblymember Michele Titus was elected as a civil court judge.

There were other upsets along with those by Souffrant Forrest and Anderson in Assembly districts in the primary, as leftist candidates unseated longtime establishment Democrats and are now poised to sail to election in the general.

In Assembly District 50 in Brooklyn, activist Emily Gallagher defeated Assemblymember Joe Lentol. In Assembly District 51 in Brooklyn, Marcela Mitaynes defeated Assemblymember Felix Ortiz. In Assembly District 34 in Queens, Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas defeated Assemblymember Michael DenDekker. In Assembly District 36 in Queens, Zohran Mamdani defeated Assemblymember Aravella Simotas. In Assembly District 38 in Queens, Jenifer Rajkumar defeated Assemblymember Michael Miller. In Assembly District 84 in the Bronx, Amanda Septimo won after Assemblymember Carmen Arroyo was disqualified from the ballot.

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by Ethan Geringer-Sameth and Samar Khurshid
@GothamGazette

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by Samar Khurshid, senior reporter, Gotham Gazette
     

Read more by this writer.

Democrats Eye Supermajority, Republicans Look to Regain Seats: The 2020 New York State Senate Battle


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Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins (photo: NY Senate)


Two years ago, Democrats won a majority in the New York State Senate for the first time in eight years, winning full control of the state Legislature and the governor’s office and allowing them to pursue a raft of progressive legislation that had stalled under Republican obstruction. As the New York GOP has continued to diminish since that election, including another wave of retirements among state senators, and as President Donald Trump remains unpopular in the state, Democrats now see an opportunity to pick up even more seats and win a supermajority in the Senate to match that has long existed in the Assembly.

But, Republican leaders in the state have professed their own optimism given Trump’s presence at the top of the ballot this year, driving base turnout unlike two years ago, when the party also lost several seats in the House of Representatives, and ongoing criticism of criminal justice reforms passed by the Democrats in Albany. While GOP officials have been hesitant to predict they will regain the state Senate majority via this year’s elections, they do say they will chip away at the wide margin Democrats ran up in 2018.

The Democratic Party holds 40 out of 63 state Senate seats and needs only two more for a veto-proof supermajority. The party has long enjoyed a dominant lead in the 150-seat Assembly, currently holding 103 seats, but power in the Senate had for the most part eluded them before 2018. That year, propelled by a surge in Democratic turnout largely driven by anger against Trump, a slew of progressive Democrats deposed moderate members of their party who had made up the erstwhile Independent Democratic Conference, which caucused with Republicans and helped them control the chamber, in the primaries and a half-dozen others flipped seats on Long Island, in Southern Brooklyn, and north of the five boroughs. 

Since 2018, there have been several retirements and resignations by GOP incumbents, including the most recent Republican majority leader, John Flanagan of Long Island, opening up an opportunity for Democrats to expand their power. Three Senate seats, including Flanagan’s District 2 (which isn’t seen as competitive, though), already lie vacant while Republicans hold 20 going into this election.

According to a spokesperson for the Senate Democratic conference, Democrats have their eye on picking up seats in ten districts recently or currently held by Republicans covering Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and Western New York – they are comfortable that they will win Districts 1, 41, 46, 50, 55, 56 and 60, while Districts 4, 51, and 61 seem to them to be leaning blue.

Senate Democrats consider themselves on the defensive in five seats they hold – they view Districts 3 and 40 as the most competitive races with Republican challengers while they expect to hold competitive Districts 6, 22, and 42, though they note those have seen heavy expenditures by the GOP and from independent entities. District 22 is the lone state Senate swing district in New York City, a Southern Brooklyn seat that Democrat Andrew Gounardes flipped in 2018 and is attempting to hold onto this year.

Senator Michael Gianaris, deputy majority leader and chair of the state’s Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, said in an interview he’s “very optimistic” about the election. “It was hard enough to get 40 [seats],” he said. “Adding a couple to that is going to be an unprecedented majority, but we're working towards it.”

Gianaris said there are several factors at play. The party enjoys a significant voter enrollment advantage – as of February 21, there were 6.56 million registered Democrats statewide, compared to 2.84 million Republicans and 2.82 million independent voters who are not registered with any political party. The prevailing sentiment against the president, “the strength of our incumbents, the success of our first term in the majority, the tidal wave of Republican retirements that have opened seats in districts that have a Democratic registration advantage is a factor. So there's a lot of reasons why I believe we're headed that way,” Gianaris said.  

A spokesperson for Senate Republicans, however, said party leaders anticipate holding on to all of their seats, including the “open” seats where no incumbent is running in Districts 1, 2, 40, 45, 50, 51, 55, 56, 60 and 61. They believe that seven of their candidates challenging incumbent Democrats are in competitive, winnable races in Districts 3, 6, 22, 39, 40, 41, and 42.

The best case scenario for Republicans appears to be if they hang on to the seats they currently hold or were most recently held by Republicans, and also win back five seats from Democrats, which would still leave them short of recapturing the majority in the chamber, but help set the stage for additional wins in 2022. Senate Minority Leader Robert Ortt and State Republican Party Chair Nick Langworthy did not provide comment for this article despite multiple requests.

Former Senate Majority and Minority Leader Flanagan’s seat is a safe bet for Republicans. The party’s candidate is local union leader Mario Mattera, who is running against Democrat Michael Siderakis, a former state trooper. It's one of the few Senate districts where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats.

Democrats are also vastly outspending their opponents, a shift from previous elections when major special interests backed the GOP. But Democrats are faced with a torrent of independent expenditures, largely from police unions and billionaire cosmetics heir Ron Lauder. The police unions have already put more than $1 million into Republican senate races, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. And Lauder has given about $4.8 million to an independent expenditure group he created, Safer Together New York, of which about $4.5 million has gone out the door. The expenditure campaigns have been premised on opposition to criminal justice reforms passed by the Democratic Legislature, and have taken particular aim at a major reform to bail laws, which they have blamed without direct evidence for contributing to spikes in violent crime and a drop in quality of life. 

Langworthy has amplified that argument, as have legislative candidates across the state hoping they can persuade moderate Democrats and independent voters. “That's gonna be an issue that looms large over every state Senate district, in every state Assembly district, in every Congressional district where the Democratic incumbent either voted for that policy or stands with that bail and discovery reform,” he said in an interview on WMHT last month. “You know, you've got the rest of the country looking to New York and California saying don't let us become like them, because they see what's happened here with these ultra liberal policies that have really gutted the opportunity for our law enforcement officials to do their job.”

Gianaris said he isn’t worried about the attacks against his party. “Somehow, over the last decade, it seems that the big dark money always flows for the Republicans rather than against them. And we won regardless. So we know how to deal with this,” he said. There have been independent expenditures in favor of Democrats as well, and some of the big special interest donors that gave to the New York GOP shifted their giving to the Democrats once the latter took the Senate majority via the 2018 elections. 

For Democrats, a supermajority in the Senate will mean the potential to claw back some power from Governor Cuomo, who has only expanded his authority in the last few months, particularly over the state budget, in response to the coronavirus pandemic and with the support of the Legislature. Whether Democrats in the Legislature would take a much more aggressive stance toward Cuomo is yet to be seen. But the possibility of such dynamics is an intriguing subplot of the election cycle.

Though dual supermajorities would allow Democratic legislators to override a veto by the governor and pass the types of legislation he has consistently opposed – higher taxes on the wealthy, for instance – it’s unclear whether the legislative chambers would use that tactic. “The governor's never had a veto overridden and I don't know that it would ever come to that,” Gianaris said. “What tends to happen is people realize what the possibilities are and what the math is and that affects the negotiated outcome.”

With two legislative supermajorities Democrats would also have a stronger hand in the redistricting process that will kick off after Census data is delivered from Congress to the states for electoral apportionment.

Bruce Gyory, a Democratic political consultant at the firm Manatt, Phelps & Phillips, LLP, said in a phone interview that this year’s election is unlike previous ones. “Usually in a given cycle, there's four to seven challenge races, real hard contested, swing or marginal races, ten at the absolute tops. This year, you have 16,” he said of the State Senate. “That is an astounding anomaly.”

As Gyory sees it, Republicans are hoping to win more moderate upstate and suburban districts by harping on the leftward swing driven by downstate Democrats, and Democrats are relying on strong candidates with good fundraising while making the argument that “Trump is a pair of cement shoes around the ankles of any Republican in a suburban area.”

“This is a good year to run as a Democrat,” Gyory added. 

Jerry Skurnik, a long-time political consultant at Prime New York and former aide to Mayor Ed Koch, agreed. “I think Democrats have a good chance to reelect almost all their incumbents, if not all of them, and pick up four or five seats,” he said of the State Senate. “New York State is becoming more Democratic in general and I think Trump's election has moved it even further. Just like Trump's having problems with suburban voters outside of Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta, he’s even more so having those problems in New York.”

Where Democrats See Pick-Ups
In District 1 on Long Island, Republican Kenneth LaValle is retiring after 44 years in office when his term ends this year. Democrat Laura Ahearn, an attorney and social worker, is running against sitting Assemblymember Anthony Palumbo, formerly a Suffolk County prosecutor. The district covers the eastern side of Suffolk County.

In District 41, which covers most of Dutchess County and parts of Putnam County, Democrat Karen Smythe is challenging Republican State Senator Sue Serino for the second time after losing to her in 2018. That year, Smythe lost by only 688 votes and now has a better funded campaign in a district that has become more blue since her loss.  

In District 46, Republican State Senator George Amedore’s retirement has given Democrats an opportunity for another seat. The district covers Montgomery County and Greene County and includes parts of Albany, Schenectady, and Ulster counties. Democrat Michelle Hinchey, daughter of late U.S. Rep. Maurice Hinchey, is seeking the seat, running against Republican Richard Amedure, a retired state trooper.  

In District 50, which covers the Syracuse region, Republican State Senator Bob Antonacci left the Senate after being elected a state Supreme Court judge last year, leaving the seat vacant. Democrat John Mannio, a teacher, is hoping to take his place, facing off against Republican Angi Renna. 

In District 55, which includes parts of Ontario County and Monroe County, Republican Senator Rich Funke decided he would not run for reelection, kicking off a competitive race Democrats believe they will win. Democrat Samra Brouk is running against Republican Chris Missick, an Army veteran and attorney.

In District 56, which falls entirely in Monroe County, Republican Senator Chris Robach is also retiring. Democrat Jeremy Cooney, the former chief of staff to Rochester Mayor Lovely Warren who unsuccessfully challenged Robach in 2018, is running for the seat a second time and faces Republican Mike Barry Jr., a Council Member from the town of Greece, in a district where Democrats have a strong enrollment advantage. 

In District 60, the seat has been vacant since State Senator Chris Jacobs won a special election to the 27th Congressional District earlier this year. Democratic Assemblymember Sean Ryan is vying to replace him, facing off against Republican attorney Joshua Mertzlufft.

Democrats See A Solid Chance
The District 4 seat on Long Island is currently held by Republican State Senator Phil Boyle, who nearly lost in 2018 to Lou D’Amaro, a Suffolk county lawmaker. Democrats believe Boyle is vulnerable and have nominated former Assemblymember Christine Pellegrino to challenge him. 

In District 51 in Central New York, Republican State Senator James Seward is retiring after 34 years in office. Republican Peter Oberacker, member of the Otsego County Board of Representatives, is seeking to replace him and is being challenged by Democrat Jim Barber, a farmer.  

In District 61, yet another retirement, of Republican State Senator Ranzenhofer, has buoyed Democratic hopes. Democratic candidate Jacqualine Berger, an Amherst Town Council member, is vying for the seat against Republican Erie County legislator Ed Rath. 

Highly Competitive Seats and Republican Optimism

Democrats find themselves defending several seats, some of which they very narrowly won in 2018 when they regained control of the State Senate.

In District 3 on Long Island, incumbent first-term Democratic State Senator Monica Martinez is being challenged by Republican Alexis Weik, the Islip town receiver of taxes.

In District 40, which includes parts of Westchester, Dutchess, and Putnam counties, incumbent Democratic State Senator Pete Harckham, who was first elected by a narrow margin in 2018, faces a competitive challenge from Rob Astorino, the former Westchester County Executive who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2014 and lost his reelection bid in 2017 to then-State Senator George Latimer, now the county executive.

A first-term Democrat is also trying to hold onto a competitive seat in District 6 on Long Island, where incumbent State Senator Kevin Thomas is being challenged by Republican Dennis Dunne, a Hempstead Town Council member; in District 22 in Brooklyn, where Senator Andrew Gounardes is facing Republican Vito Bruno, in a district that is more moderate than other parts of the city; and in District 42, in the Hudson Valley and Catskills, where Senator Jen Metzger is defending her seat against Republican challenger Mike Martucci, a school bus business owner.  

In District 5 on Long Island, Democrat Jim Gaughran is defending his seat against Republican challenger Edmund Smyth, a Council member from Huntington, and Green Party candidate Barbara Wagner. In District 39, Democratic State Senator James Skoufis, who was previously a member of the Assembly, is serving his first term as well. He is being challenged by Republican Steve Brescia, who has been a legislator in Orange County for more than two decades.

***
by Samar Khurshid, senior reporter, Gotham Gazette
     

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